Thursday is generally a smaller slate in Major League Baseball and is often used for off days and travel. The slate is also filled with day games.
However, our Action Labs Projections still found two strikeout props that provide value later today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Rays @ Guardians | Rays -125 |
| First Pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Jeffrey Springs has really impressed since being moved into the starting rotation. He's tossed over 125 innings with an ERA in the mid-2.00s. His expected statistics leave something to be desired, but he's upped his ground-ball rate so much (34.3% in 2021, 40.7% in 2022) that it negates that worry.
Springs tore his ACL last July, and he lost about two ticks on his fastball because of that. However, he's countered that by adding a sinker and significantly increasing the chase rate on his secondary stuff.
As a result, Springs' strikeout numbers have held steady even as he progressed from a middle reliever to a mid-rotation starter. Springs has hit this line in 16 of his 19 games this season where he's thrown at least 60 pitches.
Cleveland is a scary offense. The Guardians make as much contact as anyone in the league and have struck out at the third-lowest rate over the last month (17.6%).
However, the Guardians have clinched the division and might be mailing it in. Perhaps they rest some starters as they did with Amed Rosario Wednesday. Plus, the Guardians have the eighth-lowest wRC+ against southpaws in September (96).
Springs struck out five over just 92 pitches the last time he faced the Guardians, tossing five innings and allowing three runs.
The projections believe he can eclipse 4.5 Ks again, projecting Springs for:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 6.1 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 5.2 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.3 Ks
I'll take the value with Springs today.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Braxton Garrett Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
| Marlins vs Brewers | Marlins +150 |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Braxton Garrett is a great young pitcher. Similar to Springs, he's a soft-tossing southpaw who is elite at getting opponents to chase. He's slider-heavy and the pitch has a whiff rate over 40%.
Look at that thing break:
Braxton Garrett's 7th and 8th Ks.
Thru 4 pic.twitter.com/MvoACcqSZX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2022
But I don't think he has the juice to get past Milwaukee today.
Garrett had an unbelievable four-game stretch in July, striking out 37 batters over 22 2/3 innings. But he's eclipsed six strikeouts in just one of his 13 other starts. He has yet to force strikeouts on a consistent basis yet.
I also believe this is a bad matchup.
While Milwaukee strikeouts out at the third-highest rate against southpaws (25.8%), that number is down slightly in September (24.5%). Plus, the Brewers don't chase, having posted the third-lowest chase rate in MLB this season (25.9%).
Plus, Milwaukee is top-10 in MLB in Weighted Slider Runs Created. Meaning they can neutralize Braxton's highest-used pitch.
The projections like Garrett to stay under, too.
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.3 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 5.1 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.4 Ks
An even-money or plus-money price makes this prop worth betting.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
