Happy Friday!
Roll into the weekend with my two favorite MLB player props, courtesy of our Action Labs projection systems.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Tyler Alexander Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
| Twins @ Tigers | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I am looking to fade Tyler Alexander and the Tigers today. Despite the heavy juice, I think the Twins provide value at less than -160 on the ML.
But Alexander's strikeout line is too good to ignore.
Alexander does not strike out many batters. His K/9 is below 5.00. But he's cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in two straight games and three of his last five. His strikeout stuff might be coming back around, as he once was a 22% strikeout rate guy.
The Twins are generally a good, disciplined offense. But not recently. Minnesota has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in September, a whopping 25.7% of the time.
In fact, the Twins have allowed four of the last six southpaws they've faced to go over their strikeout total.
Alexander faced the Twins recently and struck out a whopping five over just 66 pitches, picking up a 30% CSW rate during the start.
The projections look good for Alexander today, too, with The Action Network's Player Props Tool projecting him for 4.6 strikeouts and FanGraphs SaberSim projections marking him for 3.8.
But we get juicy plus-money with this one.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Drew Rasmussen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Rays @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The Rays just know how to find pitchers. Drew Rasmussen has turned from a middle-relief guy into a bonafide top-of-the-rotation stud. He's managed 140 innings this season with a 2.85 ERA and a ground-ball rate close to 50%.
Rasmussen strikeout rate has stayed up, too, hanging above 22%. He was a consistent 10+ K/9 guy in his trip up the minors, so we know he has the stuff. He's cashed this number in 15 of his 27 starts this season including 10 of his last 14.
Rasmussen has a killer cutter, a pitch forcing a 30% whiff rate this season.
Drew Rasmussen, Filthy 89mph Cutter. 😷
10th K pic.twitter.com/xRcCZDIBBf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2022
And Rasmussen is one of the best chase rate guys in MLB, ranking in the 89th percentile of qualified pitchers.
The Astros are a scary lineup that doesn't strike out often, but the projections are uber-high on Rasmussen, with three different models projecting he goes over the 3.5 mark:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.1 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.7 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.3 Ks
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
