For my Sunday MLB player props, I'll be looking into outs recorded and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers.
Below, I have my top three MLB picks for Los Angeles' Tyler Glasnow, Minnesota's Chris Paddack and Cleveland's Luis L. Ortiz.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Sunday, April 6
MLB Prop Picks — Sunday, April 6
- Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
- Chris Paddack Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, bet365)
- Luis L. Ortiz Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
Dodgers vs Phillies Player Props: Time to Back Glasnow
This Sunday, we're going back to some familiar faces that were good to us early this week, and the first one is Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow shoved Monday against the Atlanta Braves, striking out eight over six innings of work.
Now, he has a tough assignment against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have been swinging the bats well at the start of the season. However, they're due for sizable regression against right-handed pitching.
Dating back to last season, the Phillies have the lowest team strikeout rate against righties over their last 30 games, and they're also at the top in OBP and wOBA. Their 2024 season-long number was more toward the middle of the pack in each of those categories.
Philly is due to take a step back, and Glasnow is one of the game's best strikeout pitchers. In fact, he ranked in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate last season.
Given all these signs pointing toward another dominant outing for Glasnow, I'm willing to pay 20 more cents than we did on Monday for the same over.
Astros vs Twins Player Props: Fade Paddack in Twin Cities
Next, we go from a dominant starter to one who has not looked great in Chris Paddack.
The Twins righty finished the 2024 campaign with a 4.99 ERA and hasn't shown any signs of improvement, giving up nine earned runs while not making it out of the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox.
This afternoon, Paddack will be tasked with the Houston Astros, a far better lineup that crushed right-handed pitching last season. While the Astros are not the same lineup as last year, many of their key hitters are very solid against righties.
Given that Paddack went under this total in 71% of his outings last season and hasn't shown any improvement, it would be shocking to see him record outs in the sixth today.
Guardians vs Angels Player Props: Strikeout Total too High
For our last player prop, we're going to target Luis L. Ortiz again. Like Glasnow, Ortiz was great to us, staying under his strikeout total against the San Diego Padres on Monday.
Today, he has a far better matchup, but his strikeout total is still too high. Ortiz is not a strikeout pitcher despite having a great arsenal of pitches. His strikeout rate last season ranked in the 27th percentile, and his strikeout per nine rate sat in the 15th percentile.
Ortiz will take the mound against the Los Angeles Angels, who have gotten off to a rough start at the plate but have shown signs of life in this series. With the Angels trending up and Ortiz still due to regress, his under is worth taking even at this price.
However, this price is one of the best in the market as sharper books, like Pinnacle, have this under at -220. Take the under and pay the juice, as Ortiz went under this total in 80% of his starts last season.
