MLB Player Props, Picks
Yesterday, we swept the board as all three of our strikeout props came in. The saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
We'll be doing just that on this Saturday's slate, as there are another three starters who are all worth fading.
Let's keep the train rolling as we dive into our top MLB player props for Saturday, April 6.
At 37 years old, Carlos Carrasco has returned to Cleveland this season after a rough 2023 campaign where he dealt with injury and a significant decline, ultimately putting an end to his time in the Mets' blue and orange.
However, in his first start of this season, Carrasco did not appear to regain any of his form from 2022. He was knocked around by the Oakland A's, giving up three runs on six hits in just five innings while only striking out three.
The strikeouts are essential to note as the A's currently have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball. Today, Carrasco will face a Twins lineup that ranks fifth in team strikeout rate but is far more dangerous.
Our Action Labs projections don't show a big edge on this under, as they have him slated for 4.9 strikeouts this afternoon, but the trends are certainly in our favor. Carrasco went over this total just once last season. If you factor in this year's outing, that makes him 20 of 21 to the under.
A 95 percent hit rate gives us implied odds of -1900. Fade the aging Carrasco this afternoon.
Pick: Carlos Carrasco Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160 at DraftKings)
Miami Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers dealt with an injury that limited him to just four starts last season. His first start this season was alarming despite recording six strikeouts.
Rogers allowed four earned runs on seven hits and walked four batters in five innings. His stuff is solid, but his command is clearly not consistent, and this afternoon he'll face a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that has the bats to do more damage against him than the Pittsburgh Pirates did.
On paper, the Cardinals are actually a better matchup than the Pirates for strikeouts, as they rank fourth in team strikeout rate on the year. However, they have plenty of solid bats, so we should expect some positive regression in that category.
On the other hand, Rogers has gone under this total in 75 percent of his starts over the last two seasons. That gives us implied odds of -300 that he'll go under again today.
Our Action Labs projections are also in line with this. They love the under as it's one of the top projected edges on the slate, with Rogers pegged for just five strikeouts.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
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We go from one excellent projection edge to the best projection edge on the slate, and this one involves New York Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt started the 2024 season by working around traffic against the Houston Astros, but today he'll have another challenge in front of him with the Toronto Blue Jays on tap.
The Blue Jays have done an excellent job of making opposing pitchers work in the early part of this season. They come in ranked 22nd in team strikeout rate and fourth in team walk rate.
That could mean trouble for a young pitcher like Schmidt, who pounds the zone but doesn't miss bats. While the scoreboard will ultimately tell that story, the one thing it means to us is minimal strikeouts.
Schmidt went under this total in 77 percent of his outings last season. That equates to implied odds of -335 that he'll go under tonight and boast our top Action Labs projection edge as they have him slated for just 3.9 strikeouts.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
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