For my Saturday MLB player props, I'll be looking into outs recorded and strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers: Bailey Falter, Andre Pallante and Taj Bradley.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Saturday, April 5
MLB Prop Picks — Saturday, April 5
- Bailey Falter Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-112, BetRivers)
- Andre Pallante Under 4.5 Strikeouts (- 130, bet365)
- Taj Bradley Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, bet365)
Yankees vs Pirates Player Props: Falter Not Getting Enough Respect
On paper, this appears to be a nightmare matchup for the soft-tossing left-hander Bailey Falter. However, even against a red-hot Yankees lineup, he's not getting enough respect in the strikeout column.
Falter had a solid spring and carried over his improvements into his first start of the season, where he posted a 29 percent CSW against the Miami Marlins. While New York is a big step up in competition, that type of strike rate indicates some who can generate at least four strikeouts.
He only went over this mark in 43 percent of starts last season, but he reached it against Miami. This total may prove to be too low, and it may not last long.
Cardinals vs Red Sox Player Props: Boston to Rock Pallante
Andre Pallante was a nemesis of mine last season, as everything on paper points to him generating minimal strikeouts, yet he always seemed to go over when I had taken him to go under. Well, I'm willing to learn my lesson one more time this afternoon as he toes the rubber against a Red Sox lineup that has been hot to start the season.
While it seemed like I was always on the wrong end of things when betting on Pallante, he only surpassed this total in half his starts last season and stayed under it in his first outing of the year against Minnesota.
The Red Sox have shown they can do damage when putting the ball in play, which happened a lot as Pallante ranked in the 26th percentile in whiff rate last season. Look for Boston to rock Pallante, shorten his outing, and keep him under this strikeout total.
Rays vs Rangers Player Props: Bradley Against Powerful Rangers
Lastly, we head to Arlington, Texas, for a tremendous pitching matchup. Taj Bradley squares off with Jacob DeGrom, and while both can rack up strikeouts, Bradley's price is off.
When Bradley is right, he possesses elite strikeout upside as he ranked in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate last season and averaged 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Tonight, he faces a daunted Texas Rangers lineup with a lot of power, but with that power comes a lot of swing and miss.
There are plenty of strikeout-prone hitters in the Rangers lineup, which makes his price on this over confusing. Bradley surpassed this total in 64 percent of his starts last season and racked up seven strikeouts against Colorado last week.
Take this plus-money price on Bradley's over tonight, as it's a mistake, and he should prove it.
