I'm betting two strikeout unders on Friday night at the same number (4.5) with differing juice attached to them. Let's break down why we're fading Ryan Weathers and Griffin Canning tonight.
MLB Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. ET | |
| 9:38 p.m. ET | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Guardians vs. Marlins
Ryan Weathers
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Weathers has been on fire of late, clearing this total in three straight starts and striking out 11 in his last outing. However, I expect him to cool off a bit in a tough matchup against the Guardians.
Weathers' top strikeout pitch has been his changeup. Seven of his 11 strikeouts last time out came on that pitch. The Guardians, though, have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB at just 12% on changeups with two strikes.
We don't have an official lineup yet for the Guardians, but the two easiest hitters who Weathers will face will likely be Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges, who will potentially hit seventh and eighth. The most likely time for Weathers' outing to end will be before he faces that part of the order a third time. That's the sort of thing my simulator picks up, and I think it's a sneaky reason why this is one of the toughest adjusted lineups on the slate and why I like this under.
I'm projected Weathers with a 60% chance to stay under 4.5 strikeouts.
Astros vs. Angels
Griffin Canning
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Canning has struggled to strike hitters out this year with a K rate of just 16%, nearly 10% lower than last season. The underlying data backs that up since his whiff rate is much lower in 2024.
Canning is actually due for some regression on his changeup that I estimate should have stuck out around eight fewer batters this year. So, in the short term, I’m not really seeing many signs of his K% improving much.
This is also a tough matchup against the Astros, who whiff at the third-lowest rate in the majors. Canning's top strikeout pitch is his slider, and Houston has the seventh-lowest strikeout percentage against that pitch this season.
I'm projected the fair price on this bet closer to -160 for Canning to go under 4.5 strikeouts.
