MLB Player Props Sunday: Bets for Pablo Lopez, Framber Valdez & More (June 23)
Via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Pablo Lopez #49 of the Minnesota Twins pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 06, 2024 in New York City.
We came out on top again on Saturday as we improved to 5-1 on the weekend and are primed to finish strong on Sunday.
Let's break down our top MLB player props for Sunday, June 23.
MLB Player Props for Sunday, June 23
- Bryce Miller over 17.5 outs (-170, bet365)
- Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)
- Pablo Lopez over 17.5 outs (-128, FanDuel)
This first play is heavy on the juice but worth the squeeze. Bryce Miller takes the mound against the Miami Marlins this afternoon, and the Mariners right-hander could not ask for a better matchup.
Miami's lineup has been dreadful this season against righties, ranking 27th in wRC+ and 29th in OPB. However, the Marlines have been even worse lately, ranking dead last in both those categories over their last 15 games.
As for Miller, he has been an innings-eater this season. He has thrown at least six innings in 10 of his 15 starts and done so efficiently by only averaging 89 pitches per outing.
Back Miller to cruise through the Marlins lineup and notch another quality start.
Framber Valdez is not the guy we knew from the Astros' playoff runs just a few years ago. The 30-year-old lefty has regressed mightily since then, and this year, it's become most notable in the strikeout department.
Valdez's Strikeout Rate is down six percent from last year, and that significant uptick in contact against him has led to some rough outings this year. Unfortunately for him, he is in line for another one today as his ERA points toward more regression.
On top of that, he will have to contend with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have proven to be dangerous against lefties as they rank fourth in wRC+ on the year and have cut down on the strikeouts lately as they sit at 18th in Strikeout Rate over their last 15 games.
Lastly, Valdez has not proven that he can surpass this total in his current form. He has gone under this total in nine of his 12 starts this season.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -300 that he'll be under again today.
We will round out the weekend in Oakland, where Pablo Lopez will look to follow Bailey Ober's 89-pitch complete game performance on Saturday. Ober's outing proved just how feeble this Athletics lineup can be, and with Lopez due for significant positive regression, we should expect a dominant outing from him.
Lopez has only thrown six innings in 40% of his starts this season, but that is due to a very tough strength of schedule. This outing is a break as the Athletics have the highest Strikeout Rate in baseball over the last month while also ranking 26th in wRC+ over that same time frame.
While the matchup is as good as it gets for Lopez, we are also getting a great price from FanDuel here, as it's around 20 cents cheaper than the rest of the market. However, if you are unable to get this price, you can play this up to -160.
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