We took a rare step backward yesterday, but that is in the past, and we are primed to start a new hot streak today. There are three starting pitchers worth fading on Sunday's baseball slate.
With the action nearing, let's dive into our three MLB player props for Sunday, July 28, featuring bets for Albert Suarez, David Peterson, and Kyle Tyler.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, July 28
- Albert Suarez Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-148, BetRivers)
- David Peterson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)
- Kyle Tyler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134, BetRivers)
We are boarding the Fade Train in Baltimore this Sunday, where Albert Suarez is set to take the ball against the San Diego Padres. On the surface, Suarez has been serviceable at the back end of the rotation, but a close look reveals a lot of impending regression.
Suarez enters this start with an xERA of 4.26 and a SIERA of 4.62. He has surrendered a great deal of hard contact, and not much of it has been on the ground, as his ground ball rate sits in the 13th percentile.
All of those numbers point to the Padres knocking Suarez around Sunday afternoon, as San Diego has been one of the better lineups in baseball against righties this season, ranking third in wRC+ and fourth in OBP.
Lastly, Suarez has gone under this total in eight of his 13 starts this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -163, which is a solid edge on the current price.
Next, we head to Queens, where the red-hot Mets will hand the ball to David Peterson in their series finale against the Atlanta Braves. At first glance, the Braves would appear to be an excellent matchup for strikeouts as they hold the highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties over the last 15 days, but larger sample sizes say otherwise.
It's no secret that the Braves have fallen off this year, but they still have plenty of bats capable of mashing left-handed pitching. On the season, the Braves are 11th in wRC+ and 16th in OBP.
They should regress to their mean offensively, as Peterson is not a pitcher who profiles for many strikeouts. His CSW is in the 19th percentile, and his swinging strike rate is not much better, ranking in the 30th percentile.
It's clear that his ability to generate swings and misses is well below average, which will amplify his overall regression. Peterson has a big gap in expected performance, as his xERA of 5.56 dwarfs his actual ERA of 3.14.
With Peterson in line for a clunker, expect his strikeout upside to be limited, as he stays under this total for the eighth time in 10 starts.
Our last stop will be in Milwaukee, where the Brewers will play host to Kyle Tyler's fifth major league start for the Miami Marlins. Tyler initially came up and worked out of the bullpen, but injuries have thrust him into the back of the rotation.
Tyler has performed fine to this point, but there is plenty to be concerned about. Tyler's command has been shaky at best, leading to hard contact and free passes.
Typically, those two things are not a recipe for success, and he's been fortunate that the majority of the hard contact has been on the ground. However, Tyler's arsenal does not profile him as a groundball artist, and he's overdue for a crooked number in the earned runs column.
Like Peterson above, a rough outing will only limit the strikeout upside of a pitcher who does not miss many bats to begin with. Tyler's CSW is in the 15th percentile, averaging just .74 strikeouts per inning.
With only five innings in one of his four starts, he'd have to be abnormally efficient to exceed this total. With so much working against him, the under is much more likely than the odds imply.
