MLB Player Props Sunday | Bets for Framber Valdez & Pablo Lopez Today (April 28)
The brooms were brought out yesterday as we swept the board. Now, we have the chance to end the week on a high note, and I've pinpointed three starters that are going to help us do just that.
So, with the first pitch nearing, let's dive into our MLB player props for Sunday, April 28 featuring picks and predictions for Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, and Pablo Lopez.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, April 28
- Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145) at bet365
- Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120) at DraftKings
- Pablo Lopez Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145) at DraftKings
We get things started with one of the best young arms in the game, Tarik Skubal. Detroit Tigers lefty has lived up to the preseason hype he was receiving thus far. The 27-year-old comes into this start with a 1.82 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.
Skubal is a rarity in today's game. He fills up the strike zone but still generates swings and misses at a high rate. His command allows him to generate quick outs and work deep into games.
This afternoon, we should see more of the same as he takes on a below-average Kansas City Royal lineup. Skubal has worked at least six innings in four of his five starts this season and 10 of his last 15 dating back to last season.
Bet on Skubal delivering another quality start this afternoon.
Houston Astros' ace, Framber Valdez, will be making just his third start of the season as he makes his return from the injured list today. However, this outing has a few key factors to highlight.
First, this outing is taking place in Mexico City, where the elevation has created a hitting environment better than Coors Field. We saw Houston take advantage yesterday as they piled on 12 runs. However, the Colorado Rockies limited their opportunity to hit in the environment because they are prone to striking out.
Ronel Blanco racked up eight strikeouts yesterday with his prop lined at the exact total Valdez will have today. It's justified that the expectations are lowered for pitchers in this series, but Blanco proved yesterday that this line is too low.
Valdez will do the same this afternoon, as he's proven this total is too low for a pitcher of his caliber. Valdez has gone over this total in 80% of his last 71 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -400 that he'll go over today, and that's an edge you have to take every time.
Lastly, we will round out the day in the "City of Angels" where Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez will take the mound. Lopez has been fortunate to work around a lot of hard contact.
His hard-hit rate is up 13% from last season, and while that will likely come down a bit, it is still an alarming rate to take into a start against an Angels lineup that has shown they can swing it.
The Angels come into this matchup fifth in xWOBACON but are also 10th in team strikeout rate. So, the likely results are hard-hit balls or whiffs.
However, given Lopez's regression, we should see more balls in play, which makes the under here a strong play. In addition, Lopez's total is too high for him.
He has not yet exceeded this number this season, and he has gone under 75% of his last 71 starts.
That hit rate equates to implied odds of -300 that he'll stay under today. So, the juice is worth the squeeze.
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