For my Sunday MLB player props, I'll be looking into strikeouts plays for two starting pitchers: Ryan Pepiot and Justin Verlander.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Sunday, April 20.
MLB Prop Picks — Sunday, April 20
- Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155, bet365)
- Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (- 125, DraftKings)
Yankees vs Rays Player Props: All the Wrong Signs for Pepiot
Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot comes into his outing today with a lot working against him. To start, he's facing a Yankees lineup that is plenty dangerous, ranking fifth in OBP and fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Next, he is still in line for regression, even after getting knocked around by the Red Sox in his last outing. His 5.76 FIP is concerning, considering he already has a 4.91 ERA.
Lastly, George M. Steinbrenner Field will amplify his mistakes. The Rays' temporary home has been a hitters' paradise early on this season, and the 18 runs scored in yesterday's game are a testament to that.
With all signs pointing to this being another tough outing for Pepiot, don't expect him to be long for this one, as his window to eclipse this strikeout total is small.
Giants vs Angels Player Props: Fade Verlander Ks
The next starter to fade today is 42-year-old Justin Verlander. It was clear a few seasons ago that Father Time had begun to catch up to Verlander. His strikeout rate is down over 8% from his career average.
While he showed flashes of great stuff in his nine-strikeout performance against the Cincinnati Reds, it's clear those types of performances have become outliers for the veteran right-hander.
Verlander has gone under this total in three of his four starts this season, which adds to the 71% clip he did so at last season. The Angels have shown to be a strikeout-prone lineup, but Verlander is not finishing off hitters like in years past, so the under is the side to take today.
