MLB Player Props | Thursday Bets for Paul Goldschmidt, More (June 20)
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)
While the baseball world is still mourning the loss of Giants legend Willie Mays, his former team will be taking on the Cardinals in a game at Rickwood Field. One Cardinal who may find the park's dimensions favorable is Paul Goldschmidt.
A couple of other players I will be backing today include Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and Mariners ace Luis Castillo.
Let's dive into our top MLB player props for Thursday, June 20.
MLB Player Props | Thursday Bets
- Luis Castillo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130, DraftKings)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI (-110, DraftKings)
- Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBI (+160, DraftKings)
On Tuesday, I backed Aaron Nola over 4.5 strikeouts against the Padres, who rank 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Nola cashed the over in four innings and had the opportunity to hit his max lines (he only had one over his final two innings).
Today, we have a similar situation with Castillo taking on the Guardians.
The Guardians are the only team that strikes out less frequently than the Padres against right-handers. However, Castillo has had five strikeouts in 12 of his last 15 starts this season and 24-of-30 starts dating back to last season.
He's also had six strikeouts in three of his last four starts against the Guardians, including seven back in April. That start was in Seattle, where Castillo is averaging 6.9 strikeouts per start this season.
Even away from T-Mobile Park, Castillo has had five strikeouts in four of seven (57%) starts this season.
Additionally, Castillo typically works deep into games and has gone six innings in three of his last four starts against Cleveland and 5 2/3 innings in the other.
Additionally, the Mariners could probably use a long outing from him after Bryan Woo lasted just four innings last night.
Castillo's outs recorded line is -204 for 17.5 outs. He's had five strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts when going six innings.
That means we don't need a vintage dominant Castillo start to get this over as five Ks in six innings will do.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Several teams enjoy their trips to Coors Field, and the Dodgers are no different as they've scored 25 runs through the first three games in this series.
The issue is trying extract value when the books heavily inflate the odds because of the altitude.
For instance, Ohtani is -575 for one hit and -195 for two total bases on DraftKings. Ohtani has seven hits through the first three games of the series, but he doesn't necessarily need a hit to drive in a run.
Ohtani has recorded an RBI in each of his last four games, including six in the first three games of this series — that's despite moving to the leadoff spot following Mookie Betts' fractured hand injury.
Last night, Ohtani got the Dodgers' offense started with a bases-clearing three-run double in the second inning.
Today, Ohtani will face Rockies left-hander Ty Blach, who's been tougher on left-handers this season. However, Ohtani hasn't been affected much by left-handed pitchers, hitting .295 with four home runs and 13 RBIs.
Meanwhile, Blach has struggled to miss bats (14.9% whiff rate and 12.4% strikeout rate) and has surrendered a lot of hard contact (39.9% hard-hit rate).
This matches well for Ohtani, who leads the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. If he can elevate the ball with a man on base, he'll have the chance to bring a run in with a sac fly or an RBI double.
He can also drive himself in with a homer, which he's +220 to hit one on DraftKings tonight.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI (-110)
Over the last week, Goldschmidt is hitting .276 with an .805 OPS. He's driven in a run twice in that span, both coming in games that he homered.
For tonight's game, the left field fence at Rickwood Field is in 80 feet from 405 feet to 325 feet. That should favor a right-handed hitter like Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt is the favorite on FanDuel in tonight's game to hit a home run at +400, but at +600, DraftKings has much better odds.
Giants starter Keaton Winn may not be a fan of those dimensions. He's entering tonight's start with a 5.30 xERA and 6.66 ERA overall. Despite being a ground-ball pitcher, Winn has a 50% hard-hit rate and 92.9 mph average exit velocity, ranking in the second percentile or worse in both areas.
He's also allowing right-handed hitters to hit .296 with four doubles, three doubles, five home runs, 19 runs batted in and a .891 OPS.
Batting in front of Goldschmidt of late has been Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson. Winn has a hit in five of his last six games and Burleson has a hit in four of his last five starts.
One of them being on-base will give Goldschmidt an opportunity to drive one of them in.
After their offense got going in Miami, I expect the Cardinals to stay hot against the Giants with Goldschmidt leading the way.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBI (+160)
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