MLB Player Props Thursday: Bets for Dylan Cease, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tyler Fitzgerald (July 25)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease (left), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (center), Tyler Fitzgerald (right).
Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut for the Dodgers as they look to clinch the series against the Giants. However, one Giants hitter he may have difficulty pitching against is Tyler Fitzgerald, which we'll look to capitalize on via MLB prop bets.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is another hot hitter I will be backing in Toronto with a player-specific bet.
However, first, we will begin in the nation's capital, where Dylan Cease and the Padres will be going for a sweep of the Nationals.
So, with that said, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Thursday, July 25.
MLB Player Props: Thursday, July 25
- Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, DraftKings)
- Tyler Fitzgerald Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (+120, DraftKings)
On Wednesday, the Padres spotted the Nationals three runs in the first inning before scoring 12 unanswered runs in the victory. With Dylan Cease getting the ball on Thursday, double-digit runs may not be necessary for a win.
Cease is averaging 7.6 strikeouts per start this season, punching out seven or more in 14 of 21 starts. Over his past eight starts, Cease has upped his average to 8.2 strikeouts per game, covering this strikeout prop line in six, including three starts of 10 or more. He also had nine strikeouts against the Nationals in San Diego last month.
Usually, that is not typical of the Nationals, who have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. However, they have the 11th-highest mark over the past two weeks.
Difficult matchups have not phased Cease. He struck out eight against Arizona and 10 against Cleveland in his past two starts. Except for the Padres, the Guardians are the toughest team to strike out.
Cease ranks in the 94th percentile of qualified pitchers with a 32.5% Strikeout Rate. That means if Cease faces 21 to 22 batters today, he will likely have at least seven strikeouts. That will likely take six innings, but his 17.5 outs prop is juiced to the over (-200).
Vladimir Guerreo Jr. hit 48 home runs in 2021 and followed that up with 32 homers in the 2022 season. Guerreo's power numbers have been a bit down this season, but that has started to change by late. He has homered five times in his last six games and is up to 18 on the year. He is +525 on BetMGM to leave the yard again.
With his power surge of late, Guerrero has recorded two total bases in each of his past six games. He is hitting .407 in that span with two doubles, five homers, eight RBIs, and a 1.485 OPS. Guerrero is averaging 4.6 total bases per game during this six-game span.
We only need two on Thursday, but given his matchup, he may have four or more once again.
Taj Bradley will get the ball for Tampa Bay, and the young right-hander has been dominant lately — but Guerrero is 3-for-8 (.375) with a home run and two RBIs against him. Even if Bradley throws a three-hit gem today, we can still cash this line if one of them is a Guerrero double.
Guerrero has recorded two total bases in his past four games against Tampa Bay, and I expect that streak to extend to five today. His MLB player prop bets have been very profitable, which is why he's a valuable pick among today's player prop bets.
Tyler Fitzgerald has six home runs this season, five of which came in a five-game home run streak. That streak ended on Wednesday, but he doubled and scored two runs to give him three hits + runs + runs batted in.
Fitzgerald has cashed this prop in seven of his past eight games, averaging 3.4 hits + runs + runs batted in per game. He has also hit this line in his past four games against the Dodgers.
Fitzgerald's splits are reasonably even thus far this season. He has three doubles, three home runs, and .314 batting average against left-handed pitchers and three doubles, three home runs, and a .333 batting average against right-handed pitchers. Fitzgerald will face Clayton Kershaw for the first time today, but Kershaw will likely not go past five innings today. Given where Fitzgerald has hit in the bottom of the Giants' lineup, that may only mean two at-bats against Kershaw depending on the game flow.
Fitzgerald may already have this line covered by his handling of left-handed pitching. If not, he will have more opportunities against the Dodgers' bullpen. Fitzgerald, like the players mentioned above, is a strong pick for today's MLB player props.
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