MLB Player Props Thursday: Bets for Bobby Witt, Ryan Mountcastle, Sonny Gray
Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals hits a ninth inning three-run home run against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 7, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
On this Thursday, there is just five games, but the best matchup of the night is in Cleveland where the Orioles will be visiting the Guardians. In that one, I’ll be looking to back Ryan Mountcastle with Ben Lively getting the start for Cleveland. Additionally, I’ll be backing Bobby Witt Jr. and Sonny Gray as they look to lead their team to victories over division rivals.
So, with no time to waste, let's dive into our three MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 1, featuring bets for Mountcastle, Witt Jr., and Gray
MLB Player Props: Thursday, August 1
- Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Hits +Runs + Runs Batted In (-130, DraftKings)
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits +Runs + Runs Batted In (-120, DraftKings)
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-162, FanDuel)
Yesterday, the Orioles clinched a series win over the Blue Jays with a decisive 10-4 victory. While the biggest story from the game was a grand slam by Jackson Holliday for his first home run, scoring on the play was Ryan Mountcastle. The Orioles first baseman also went 1-for-4 with two runs batted in.
Over his last nine games, Mountcastle is hitting .364 with five runs scored, 11 runs batted in, and a .951 OPS. As a result, he has hit this line in six of his past nine games. In that span, he is averaging 3.1 hits + runs + runs batted in per game, which would comfortably clear the two that we need tonight.
Tonight, Mountcastle will face Guardians right-hander Ben Lively, who is allowing right-handed hitters to hit .271 on the year. Additionally, he ranks in the 18th percentile with a 42.8% Hard Hit Rate. That benefits a hitter like Mountcastle, who has walked just 24 times this season and will likely put the ball in play. Mountcastle has 26 extra-base hits and 44 runs batted in against right-handed pitchers this season. Another extra-base hit tonight will Mountcastle an opportunity to drive in a run or be in scoring position for a teammate to drive him in.
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Hits +Runs + Runs Batted In (-130) (DraftKings)
Bobby Witt Jr. had a great first half, which resulted in his first All-Star game appearance. However, he has been otherworldly since the second half began. In his last 12 games, Witt is hitting .565 with five doubles, a triple, three home runs, 13 runs batted in, and 1.528 OPS. He has hit this line in eight of his last 12 games and four of his last six games against the Tigers.
Witt leads the MLB with a .349 batting average and is second with 10 triples. Playing at Comerica Park, Witt will have a great chance for another triple if he drives a ball to the right-center field gap. Starting for the Tigers tonight is Keider Montero. Due to injuries and the trade of Jack Flaherty, the Tigers have been short on starters and could use five to six innings from Montero tonight. That should benefit the Royals offense as Montero has a 6.38 ERA on the year and his earned runs line is 2.5 at -150 on DraftKings tonight.
This will be Montero's first start against the Royals, but he has allowed right-hander hitters to hit .308 with six doubles, six home runs, and a 1.043 OPS. If Montero struggles again, that increases the chances of Witt having five plate appearances tonight. Witt has two hits in each of his last eight games with five plate appearances, clearing this line in all of them while averaging six hits + runs+ runs batted per game. Just focusing on the hits, Witt is +130 on FanDuel for two hits tonight and +590 if you pair him with Mountcastle.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits +Runs + Runs Batted In (-120) (DraftKings)
In his last start, Sonny Gray struggled a bit as he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings. However, he also recorded seven strikeouts. Gray has now recorded seven strikeouts in six straight starts, eight of his last 10, and 16 of 19 starts this season. While a bit juiced at -162, it makes sense considering Gray's consistency this season.
Elsewhere, you may see this number at 6.5 for plus odds. It is still playable there, but one strikeout makes a big difference as Gray's hit rate drops to 47% for seven strikeouts. However, he does have a great matchup today against the Cubs, who are 10th in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers.
Gray is averaging 7.7 strikeouts in his last three outings against the Cubs, including starts of eight and nine strikeouts. Gray has pitched seven innings in five of his last eight starts. Another lengthy outing will give him a chance to clear this line and his value lines as well. Gray is +280 for eight strikeouts and +560 for nine strikeouts on FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-162) (FanDuel) (FanDuel)
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