For my Thursday MLB player props, I'll be looking into over/under strikeouts plays for three starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Tanner Houck and Nick Lodolo.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for March 30, 2025.
MLB Prop Picks — Thursday, April 3
- Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, DraftKings)
- Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
- Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110, BetMGM)
Red Sox vs Orioles Player Props: Morton Ready to Bounce Back
We kick things off with 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who's searching for a bounce-back outing after getting roughed up by the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite the tough outing, Morton's stuff did not drop off — his CSW was still 25%, which is about 5% lower than last year, but remember, it was a bad outing.
This afternoon, he'll toe the rubber against the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox haven't gotten off to a great start against righties as they've struck out in over 27% of their at-bats.
This is the matchup for Morton to turn the clock back a bit and his strikeout total is prime to pick as he went over this in 57% of his 30 starts last season. So, back Uncle Charlie to carve up the Red Sox.
Red Sox vs Orioles Player Props: Houck Will Rack Up Ks
Next, we turn our attention to the other starting pitcher in that game, Tanner Houck. Houck had a great 2024 campaign and did so with consistency in the strikeout column.
While he only recorded two strikeouts in his first start of the season against the Texas Rangers, he's primed to bounce back. Houck averaged 5.13 strikeouts per start last season and surpassed this number in 60% of his 30 starts.
Yes, his strikeout numbers are concerning, ranking in the 39th percentile in strikeout rate last year, but his length and efficiency should allow him to go over this mark against a Baltimore lineup that has been less disciplined to start the 2025 season.
Reds vs Brewers Player Props: Trust Lodolo's Upside
Our final bounce-back candidate is Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo, who did everything well in his first outing of the season against San Francisco, tossing six innings of two-run ball and walking none.
The only outlier was his strikeout total. He had just one punchout in that outing, but did average 5.8 per start last season. Lodolo also showed indicators of high-strikeout upside as his strikeout rate and strikeout-per-nine rates both ranked in the top 30% of qualified pitchers.
So, it's clear Lodolo is due to put more hitters away. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have had a rough start at the plate.
Milwaukee has struck out over 29% of the time against lefties and is hitting just .220 against them. While it is a small sample size, the Brewers aren't yet clicking against lefties, and that's a big edge for a pitcher with the strikeout prowess of Lodolo.
Back Lodolo to complete our trio of strikeout overs on today's slate.
