MLB Opening Day is finally upon us! All 30 teams will be in action on Thursday, which means there are plenty of player picks to take advantage of across the board.
Player picks have become among the most popular plays in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially pair game picks with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player picks to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB Opening Day slate.
What is PrizePicks? A single-player fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you pair two or more plays together.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5.5
The defending World Series champion Houston Astros take on the AL Central's Chicago White Sox on ESPN to open the season. Slated to take the mound for Chicago is last year's AL Cy Young runner-up, right-hander Dylan Cease.
Making his first career Opening Day start, Cease should spell trouble for a lineup that could still have the post-championship hangover. As one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, Cease went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were just as dominant, ranking in the 90th percentile (or higher) in hard-hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and whiff percentage.
The first Astros hitter to fade in this contest is superstar Yordan Alvarez.
While Alvarez is obviously a stud, he cannot figure out Cease. He's gone just 1-for-8 with a single and five strikeouts in eight career at-bats against the right-hander.
Alvarez is one of the league's best hitters, so this will be one of the rare circumstances to sell high on him. It's a good time to do so against a dominant pitcher who has had his number.
Kyle Tucker Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5.5
The other Houston hitter we're going to fade on Opening Day is Kyle Tucker. While Tucker missed the final of this year's World Baseball Classic against Japan due to an ankle sprain, he's expected to play against Chicago.
With that in mind, Tucker could be a good fade candidate against Cease. Playing at Minute Maid Park didn't treat Tucker kindly last season, as his OPS dipped by roughly 15% at the venue.
His BA, OBP and SLG all also saw noticeable dips on his home diamond, which is not negligible given the sample size. Like Alvarez, Tucker is a fantastic hitter who will typically be a rare fade on PrizePicks.
However, going against Cease promotes one of those rare instances. Additionally, it remains to be seen whether or not that ankle will be a problem for Tucker moving forward.
Corey Seager Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5.5
After losing to the Astros in last year's World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies look to start this season on the right foot as they travel to Arlington to take on the Texas Rangers.
Slated to take the mound for the sixth consecutive Opening Day for Philadelphia is right-hander Aaron Nola.
Entering the final year of his contract, Nola looks to build upon last year's strong campaign to earn a big ticket in the offseason. Nola produced a strong 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to go along with 235 strikeouts last season.
His underlying metrics were even stronger, ranking in the 80th percentile (or higher) in hard-hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and chase rate.
The first Rangers hitter to fade in this contest is Corey Seager.
Seager put together an underwhelming campaign against right-handers last year, finishing with a .254 BA, .445 SLG and .777 OPS. In his career against Nola, Seager is 1-for-4 with a single and two strikeouts.
Now, it's worth noting that Seager had an impressive spring training, and I personally believe he will have a stronger 2023. However, starting off the year against Nola is an incredibly tough task, and he should stay below this total.
Marcus Semien Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5
The other Texas hitter we're fading in this contest is Marcus Semien. After signing a massive seven-year, $175 million contract with the Rangers, Semien saw a drop-off in production in his first season with the new club.
Part of this drop-off was due to his performance at Globe Life Field, a place where he struggled mightily. Semien produced a troubling .210 BA, .355 SLG and .627 OPS in 353 plate appearances at his home diamond last year.
These struggles should continue against Nola, a dominant right-hander who Semien is 0-for-4 against in his career.
