MLB Player Props Tuesday: Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola Picks
Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies rounds based after hitting a two run home run during the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
It is June and that means Kyle Schwarber is crushing baseballs. Schwarber will look to help the Phillies take the second of a three-game set against the Padres and provide run support for Aaron Nola, who is coming off a rough outing in Boston. Additionally, Royce Lewis is another hot hitter that I will be backing tonight.
Let's dive into our top MLB player props for Tuesday, June 18 — featuring bets for Schwarber, Nola and Lewis.
MLB Player Props for Tuesday, June 18
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
- Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
There may not be a player that looks forward to the start of summer more than Kyle Schwarber, who has a .228 batting average for his career. In June, that average jumps to .254 and he also 60 career home runs, his most in any month.
This year, Schwarber is hitting .290 with two doubles, five home runs and 12 RBI. Two of those home runs came last night and totaled over 850 feet.
Schwarber has a hit in nine of his last 10 games and he is hitting .375 over that span. That has helped Schwarber hit this line in six of those games, and six of his last eight to be specific. He has faced a few tough starters in that span, including Tanner Houck and Corbin Burnes — Schwarber doubled against both of them.
Tonight, Schwarber will face Michael King, who is coming off a dominant outing with 12 strikeouts in five innings against Oakland. Schwarber is 2-for-4 with two singles against King, and while Schwarber normally gets two total bases with extra-base hits, two singles would work tonight as well. He has also recorded two total bases in 14 of his last 23 games against the Padres.
Additionally, it is Dinger Tuesday on FanDuel and Schwarber is +255 to hit a home run, compared to +220 on DraftKings. Six of the 13 home runs King has allowed have been against left-handed hitters.
In Aaron Nola's last start, he was shelled in Boston, allowing 11 hits and eight earned runs while striking out just two in 3 2/3 innings. However, the Red Sox have scored seven runs in five of their past six games, so it is hard to blame Nola too much for that one.
Additionally, while looking into Schwarber, I also stumbled into Nola's track record against the Padres. If recent history repeats itself, this number may prove to be far too low.
Nola has had at least six strikeouts in each of his last three starts against the Padres, including 10 strikeouts in each of his last two regular-season starts. Nola is averaging 8.7 strikeouts over the last three meetings.
However, tonight, we do not need nine or 10 strikeouts from Nola — only five. That is a number that Nola has not had much trouble hitting this season. He is averaging 5.9 strikeouts over his last 10 starts, recording five in eight of them. In addition to the start against Boston, he was also hooked on four against San Francisco.
On paper, the Padres present a tough matchup as they are 29th in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching. However, they have been at the bottom of the league in Strikeout Rate in the last few seasons and that has not stopped Nola previously. Additionally, each of the last five starters — Hogan Harris, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill and Cristoper Sanchez — the Padres have faced recorded five strikeouts or more. Most would consider Nola the best pitcher among that group.
Nola has also gone six innings in seven of his last 10 starts and 5 2/3 innings in another, so we may not need him to get a strikeout per inning. However, if Nola does repeat his previous success against the Padres, he offers significant value. He is +300 for seven strikeouts and +560 for eight strikeouts on FanDuel.
The Twins have won five straight games and seven of their last 10 games — the left side of their infield has been a big reason why.
Carlos Correa is hitting .431 in June while Royce Lewis is hitting is .359 since returning from the IL. They each have hits in nine of their last 10 games and each have a hit off Rays starter Aaron Civale (in five at-bats for Lewis and three at-bats for Correa).
They are -121 on FanDuel if you parlay both of them for hits. As hot as they have been, it is hard to pick one, but for total bases I am going with Lewis, because he has hit for more power of late.
Correa and Lewis each have had two total bases in seven of their last 10 games. However, Correa has 20 extra-base hits in 54 games while Lewis has nine hits in 12 games this season.
Seven of those hits have been home runs. Lewis homered in each game of the Twins' doubleheader against the A's and in four of his past six games, all of which have been at home. Correa and Lewis both have virtually the same odds for total bases, but Lewis is +330 to homer while Correa is +480 on FanDuel.
Like Schwarber, two singles can clear this line for either player. However, if one of them goes 1-for-4, it is more likely that one hit for Lewis will go for extra bases based on their production this season. As a result, Lewis is the Twin I will be backing tonight.
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