I typically hold off on betting strikeout props until I have seen a pitcher make at least one start. Well, there are nine starters on Tuesday who will be making their second start of the season. Obviously, that's still a very small sample size, but it's better than nothing.
This is a bit of a walkthrough for my process in terms of what I'm looking for when it comes to buying, selling or waiting on betting on pitchers. This is what I'm thinking about when setting up my projections, but sometimes I can still find value in other ways. Nothing is ever set in stone when it comes to my process.
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Welcome to my true 2025 intro to strikeout prop season. Here are the nine starters I'll cover for Tuesday, April 1:
- Chris Sale
- Luis Severino
- Justin Steele
- Jose Berrios
- Sandy Alcantara
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Logan Gilbert
- Logan Webb
- Michael King
Find my takeaways from each pitcher after their first start of the season, and whether I'm buying, holding or selling them.
MLB Player Props: Tuesday Pitcher Picks, Previews, Analysis
Sandy Alcantara
Welcome back, Sandy.
After missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery, Alcantara made his return last week — and while his velocity was slightly down from his pre-surgery level, he was still bringing it with 97.2 mph sinkers and 98.2 mph four-seamers. Still elite.
His changeup (50% whiff rate) and slider (63%) were pure filth; he racked up 91 pitches in his debut. That’s a green light on workload moving forward—no pitch count concerns here.
The concern? Command. Alcantara was all over the place, missing the zone, falling behind, and not getting hitters to chase like usual. The movement on his sinker and changeup was nasty … maybe a little too nasty. It felt like even he didn’t know where the ball was going — sort of like my current golf game — just hit it, hope for the best, and yell “Fore!!” when necessary.
That’s not ideal timing for a matchup against the Mets, who:
- Swing at the 4th lowest rate in MLB
- Chase at the 5th lowest rate in MLB
Their patience — fueled by Juan Soto-style discipline spreading across the team — could give Alcantara fits if he’s still struggling to find the zone.
He’s a HOLD for now — the stuff is there and the upside is obvious, but until the command tightens up or he draws a more chase-happy lineup, we wait.
Nathan Eovaldi
BUY!
That’s the verdict early in the season on Eovaldi, who came out of the gates buzzing in his debut with nine strikeouts over six innings and some absolutely filthy offspeed stuff. The man was in midseason form before April even knew what hit it.
This isn’t random, either.
Eovaldi has always been an early-season guy — his career K% in March/April is 24.3%, which is significantly higher than his career average (20.6%). He trends up when hitters are still working off the winter rust, and historically this is the time to ride the wave.
He tossed 87 pitches in his debut, so we’re likely to see a bump closer to his usual 93-ish pitch count in Cincy.
Now, let’s talk arsenal — because it was a tale of two pitch types:
- Curveball: 25% usage (up from 13% last year); 67% whiff rate
- Splitter: 17% usage (down from 31% last year); still nasty at 46% whiff rate
Those two pitches were straight-up unfair in his debut.
The fastball? Not so much. He didn’t get a single whiff on his heater (down from an 18% whiff rate last year), and the velo was slightly down (94.6 mph vs. 95.4 last year). Not ideal, but not panic-worthy.
The upside? If the fastball starts generating even average whiffs, his K ceiling only climbs higher.
Eovaldi’s overall approach remains the same: Pound the zone early (career 64% first-pitch strike rate), get ahead, and then get nasty. He lives on the edges and thrives when hitters are passive, and that’s where things get interesting for this matchup.
The Reds have the …
- 5th-lowest first pitch swing rate
- 4th-lowest zone swing rate
In other words, they’re patient to a fault — and that’s exactly what Eovaldi wants. He’ll get ahead, then start teasing with that curveball/splitter mix that just sent hitters spinning last time out.
This could be one of those matchups where the Reds fall right into his trap.
Regardless of whether I end up with an official bet here, this is a spot where I want to keep a close eye on how the market reacts. If we get a number that’s baking in his fastball struggles or underestimating the impact of the Reds’ approach, I’ll be ready.
Eovaldi is a BUY early in the year. Let’s just hope the market hasn’t figured that out already.
Jose Berrios
It was a tough opening outing for Berríos — three homers and six earned runs in five innings — but don’t let the box score scare you off just yet.
Underneath the damage, there were some real signs of life.
He posted a 33% whiff rate and struck out five with a 20.8% K%, but based on his pitch mix and the matchups, my expected K% came out to 30.8%. That’s a massive gap, and it makes him a classic early season buy-low candidate in the strikeout prop market.
The issue? He was living way too much over the heart of the plate. His stuff was generating whiffs, but he didn’t locate it well enough to keep hitters off the barrel. With torpedo bats potentially changing the game as we know it, it’s going to be even more imperative to avoid throwing meatballs.
But Berríos is a vet. I’d expect better location this time around, and if he can pair that with anything close to the same whiff rate (north of 25% is the goal), we’re cooking.
The Nationals present a really interesting matchup here:
- 7th-highest chase rate
- 7th-highest whiff rate
- Highest meatball swing rate
If Berríos keeps leaving pitches down Broadway, hitters will swing, and they might make him pay. But if he can clean up the command even a little, this sets up as a strong strikeout spot.
K props: BUY LOW
Real-life performance: Still a bit of a HOLD; we need to see him keep the ball out of the middle before fully buying in.
Logan Webb
Webb’s 2025 debut was a little underwhelming.
The usually durable righty went just five innings on 78 pitches against the Reds — it was a shorter leash than usual, but nothing in the underlying data screams "red flag."
The pitch mix, though, was interesting.
He cut his changeup usage down to just 11% (from 30% last year) and leaned more heavily on the sinker and cutter. That cutter, in particular, was his most effective pitch in the outing, and if he keeps throwing it 15%+ of the time, that could actually help bump his strikeout rate over time.
Still, it's a small sample; we’ll need a few starts to know if this is a deliberate shift or just a feel thing.
Webb’s whole game is about control and deception:
- Get ahead in counts
- Get hitters to take strikes
- Get hitters to swing at balls
Most pitchers can’t sustain called-strike success over the long haul — it regresses hard — but Webb has proven to be the exception. He led all qualified SPs in called-strike rate last year and continued to excel in his debut.
The weird part? His chase rate was just 5%, which is laughably low and almost certainly a one-game blip, especially since he’s typically up around 31%.
For Webb to have those 6-7 K games, he needs a very specific opponent profile:
- Takes pitches in the zone (lets him pile up called strikes)
- Chases outside the zone (his best chance to generate whiffs)
Enter the Astros:
- 3rd-lowest zone swing rate
- 5th-highest chase rate
That’s exactly the kind of lineup Webb can work with. If the cutter usage stays up and the Astros stick to their usual approach, this sets up as a sneaky-good bounce-back spot.
K props / fantasy angle: HOLD for now, but the matchup is strong, and if he leans on the cutter again, we might see that K% tick up sooner than expected.
Michael King
King’s season debut was rough.
He didn’t make it out of the third inning, going 2 2/3 frames with three earned runs and four walks. He got yanked after 76 pitches.
Like Logan Webb, King thrives on called strikes. He was second to Webb in called-strike rate last season and has built his success around getting ahead in the count and inducing chases out of the zone.
But that only works if you’re actually in the zone.
King threw just 40% of his pitches in the strike zone, walked four, and gave up an 83% contact rate on pitches outside of it. That’s how you blow up your approach before you ever get to settle in.
His pitch mix remained the usual five-pitch blend, and most of them looked fine. His changeup struggled (8% whiff rate), but overall, the stuff wasn’t the issue — it was command.
That’s the tricky part.
Command can return in a flash … or completely derail a second straight start. Nothing from his debut screams BUY or SELL, so for now, King is a HOLD.
That said, the matchup against the Guardians doesn’t do him any favors:
- The Guardians swing at the 10th-highest rate on pitches in the zone
- Cleveland has the highest contact rate on pitches outside the zone
- 2nd-lowest chase rate
The Guardians are patient, they make contact, and they don’t chase. That’s a brutal combo for a guy like King, who needs hitters to take strikes and swing at balls.
To make things worse, King has pretty sharp platoon splits. He’s struck out righties 4.5% more than lefties over his career. The Guardians might send eight left-handed hitters to the plate.
So yeah, this isn’t the bounce-back spot you’re looking for.
King's a walking SNL George Washington “nobody knows” meme heading into in his second start. Great stuff, horrible command in the opener, which means he could just as easily spiral again or bounce back with eight punchouts.
I typically shy away from pitchers in this spot after one start, and this is no exception.
Logan Gilbert
Gilbert picked up right where he left off last season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts in his season debut.
Yes, it was against the A’s — so, grain of salt — but this guy is quietly (or not so quietly) becoming one of the better arms in the league.
The big development? His splitter usage.
