There is no better way to get over the mid-week hump than with some action on the diamond. I've got three starters with value on them for Wednesday's slate.
Let's dive into my top MLB player props for Wednesday, Aug. 21.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (Wednesday, Aug. 21)
- Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, bet365)
- Nick Martinez Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120, bet365)
- Ryan Pepiot Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125, BetRivers)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Player Props: Fade Montgomery
To put it lightly, Jordan Montgomery has had a rough season. The veteran lefty comes into this matchup with a 6.25 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 18 starts.
One of the biggest reasons for his steep decline has been his inability to generate strikeouts. Montgomery's strikeout rate is down nearly 6% from last season.
This has resulted in him recording four or fewer strikeouts in 14 of his 18 starts this year. He is in line to add to that mark, as the Miami Marlins are better against left-handed pitching.
Over the last 15 days, the Marlins are 17th in strikeout rate against lefties, which has improved their season-long ranking to 12th. Additionally, the Marlins are not a team fooled into chasing out of the zone, as they rank 15th in chase contact.
Given that Montgomery relies on getting whiffs outside the zone, the Marlins should negate that.
Reds vs Blue Jays Player Props: Early Exit for Martinez
With the injury to Hunter Greene, Nick Martinez has been thrust into the Reds' rotation again. To his credit, Martinez was excellent in his first three starts since May, as he shut down the Marlins, Brewers and Royals.
However, a closer look reveals that Martinez is due to regress, and with his workload increase, the chances of that happening tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays are higher than in his relief role.
Martinez'a FIP is 3.18, but his xFIP is 4.05 and his SIERA is 3.81. That is a sizable gap between predictive stats and is not what you want to carry into an outing against the Blue Jays, who are seventh in wRC+ and 13th in OBP against righties over the last 15 days.
All of this points to an early exit for Martinez tonight.
Rays vs. A's Player Props: Back Pepiot to Last
Ryan Pepiot has flourished this season for the Tampa Bay Rays. The 27-year-old righty enters with a 3.69 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts this season.
He's been tough to touch this season, as his whiff rate ranks in the 81st percentile, but opposing hitters have not done much when they've put the ball in play. Pepiot's xBA against of .224 sits in the 75th percentile.
All of this points to Pepiot thriving against the Oakland Athletics tonight. It's no secret that the A's have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They have the third-highest strikeout rate and rank 23rd in OBP against right-handed pitching on the season.
Pepiot should face little resistance and work into the sixth inning, which has been common when he's been healthy this season. He has gone over 15.5 outs in 67% of his starts this season, which adds up to implied odds of -203 that he will go over the mark tonight.
