Wednesdays are becoming my favorite day of the week because we get to watch daytime baseball.
I'm taking advantage of the early action today with three MLB Player Props.
First pitch is fast approaching, so let's examine three MLB player props for Wednesday, June 12, featuring bets on Austin Gomber, Christopher Sanchez, and Jon Gray.
MLB Player Props: Wednesday, June 12
- Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
- Cristopher Sanchez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110, bet365)
- Jon Gray Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
Rockies starter Austin Gomber is having a solid season on paper. It's not often you see a Colorado pitcher with a 3.38 ERA.
But he's primed for regression (4.46 xERA) and is preparing to face a Twins lineup that performs well against southpaws.
Gomber can't miss bats, which should play into his negative regression. He ranks in the 16th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, the Twins have cut down on their swinging strikes this year, ranking 16th among MLB lineups in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
In addition to the matchup, Gomber hasn't proven he can eclipse four strikeouts. He's stayed under 4.5 Ks in 75% of his past 72 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -300, a significant edge over the market price.
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Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight and has a tremendous matchup ahead of him.
He'll be up against the Boston Red Sox, who have the highest team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.
However, the matchup is being weighed far too heavily into Sanchez's strikeout prop. While the Phillies' lefty has been excellent this year, strikeouts are not a big part of his game.
He ranks in the 39th percentile among qualified starters in strikeout rate, staying under 5.5 Ks in seven of 12 starts. He's stayed under this total in 63% of his starts since the beginning of last season.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -170, which is a vast difference from the current plus money price.
Fade Sanchez tonight, even in a great matchup.
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We go from a pitcher being overrated to one that is being underrated.
Jon Gray will take the mound against the Los Angeles Dodgers. We know the Dodgers have a formidable lineup, but they aren't immune to whiffs, ranking 16th in strikeout rate against righties.
Jon Gray is averaging five strikeouts per start this season and has averaged that amount over his past 67 starts. Yet his line tonight is only 3.5.
He's exceeded this number in 72% of his last 67 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -257.
The Dodgers are always a tough matchup, but from a strikeout perspective, Gray's opponent is merely league average.
