MLB Player Props Wednesday: Picks for Trevor Rogers, Ronel Blanco, Jon Gray (July 3)
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While we all wish Wednesday's slate started earlier, we are afforded plenty of time to pick apart the player prop market.
Below, you'll find three starters who have value on them tonight.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Wednesday, July 3 — featuring picks for Trevor Rogers, Ronel Blanco and Jon Gray.
MLB Player Props: Wednesday, July 3
- Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
- Ronel Blanco Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-109, BetRivers)
- Jon Gray Under 15.5 Outs (-102, FanDuel)
Trevor Rogers will take the ball tonight for the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, and the lethal lefty may have a good matchup on paper, but a closer look gives insight into how he will perform.
Rogers will be up against the Boston Red Sox, who come in with the highest strikeout rate against lefties on the season. However, this great matchup has significantly inflated Rogers' strikeout total, as he's not shown that he can reach this total.
He has gone under this line in 13 of his 16 starts this year. Rogers is also not showing any signs of improvement in the strikeout department, ranking in the 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in CSW rate and 25th percentile in swinging strike rate.
Lastly, the Red Sox's struggles against lefties are overblown. So, if Rogers isn't going to be missing bats, he will likely surrender a good amount of hard contact.
Next, we go north of the border, where Ronel Blanco is set to toe the slab against the Toronto.
On the season, the Toronto Blue Jays have been a tough team to strike out, as they rank 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
However, they have been more susceptible over their last 15 games, posting the league's eighth-highest strikeout rate during that span.
Ronel Blanco is catching them at a great time, and his strikeout line is set more toward the Blue Jays' season-long form, rather than their current form.
Blanco has exceeded this total in 73% of his 15 starts this season. So, the implied odds are heavily in our favor.
Blanco is due for more strikeouts. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 77th percentile in swinging strike rate and 62nd percentile in CSW rate.
Be confident that his positive regression will begin tonight.
Jon Gray has done a decent job holding down the back end of the Texas Rangers rotation this season. The 32-year-old righty has pitched to a 3.77 ERA in 14 starts.
However, that should start to change tonight, as he's due for significant regression. Gray's xERA (4.56) is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA (3.77), and his xFIP (3.71) dwarfs his FIP (3.33)
Gray takes all this impending regression into a matchup with the San Diego Padres. The Padres have been tough on right-handed pitching this year, pairing the second-highest wRC+ with the lowest strikeout rate.
All signs point to San Diego roughing up Gray and sending him to the showers early. That has been the trend for Gray, as he's only recorded an out in the sixth inning in six of his fourteen starts.
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