We are going to get over the midweek hump by backing some guys on the bump today.
Three starters offer excellent value for today's slate. So let's meet them in our MLB player props for Wednesday, May 22 — featuring bets for Ryan Pepiot, Bryce Miller, Chris Bassitt.
MLB Player Props: Wednesday, May 22
- Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125) at BetMGM
- Bryce Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108) at FanDuel
- Chris Bassitt Under 18.5 Outs (-130) at BetRivers
Ryan Pepiot has bolstered the Rays' rotation, taking significant steps forward this season.
The 26-year-old righty enters Wednesday's matchup with a 3.68 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, but his uptick in strikeouts is the biggest reason for his success.
Pepiot's strikeout rate is up nearly six percent from last year. He ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and the 84th percentile in strikeout rate.
Tonight, he has an excellent matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who have the third-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
The matchup is excellent, and we're getting a reasonable price.
Pepiot has surpassed this number in four of his seven starts this year and is primed to exceed it a fifth time tonight.
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The Yankees have lived up to their nickname, "The Bronx Bombers," as they are tied for the major league lead in homers and lead the American League in wRC+.
However, this tough matchup has created value for the Mariners starter Bryce Miller. Miller is not receiving much respect in this matchup, so we can capitalize on that.
While the Yankees are dangerous and don't strike out much, Miller's strikeout total is too low, especially for this year's version of him. Miller's strikeout rate is up three percent as his new splitter has proven to be a significant weapon against lefties.
Overall, Miller has exceeded this strikeout prop in six of his nine starts and 53% of his 34 career starts.
The current price is far too low for Miller and his improved arsenal.
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The White Sox have been dreadful at the plate this season. They are last in wRC+ and the only team with a negative offensive WAR.
However, Chris Bassitt has not been that great either. The 35-year-old has a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through nine starts, and he's shown no signs of improving.
We have seen the White Sox lineup pick up over the last two weeks, spurred by the late addition of Tommy Pham. So, with the White Sox trending up and Bassitt trending down, I doubt we will see Toronto's starter dominate.
History is against Bassitt, as he's gone under this total in 60% of his past 73 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -150, giving us 20 cents of value against the market price.
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