Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5 Odds
| Guardians Odds | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | -154 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Yankees survived in Game 4 on Sunday night, setting up a winner-take-all meeting with the Guardians on Monday night in the Bronx.
Neither team has its starting pitching set up particularly well, as Jameson Taillon will take the mound for New York against Cleveland's Aaron Civale. Expect the bullpens to get plenty of work tonight.
The Houston Astros await the winner in the ALCS starting Wednesday, but for now, our analysts have three picks on how they're betting this do-or-die matchup.
Here are our best bets for Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5.
MLB Odds & Picks
Anthony Rizzo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-150)
Odds via bet365
Doug Ziefel: Anthony Rizzo is one of the few guys with solid BvP numbers tonight. He has hit Aaron Civale very well thus far, as he's 5-for-10 with two homers and a double.
While that sample size may be small, his quality of contact says that his success against Civale will continue tonight.
Of those 10 at-bats, Rizzo has put eight balls in play and has an average exit velocity of 101 mph. That is elite-level contact and makes his xBA .436.
On top of his excellent history against Civale, Rizzo will also have a splits edge tonight. He has hit righties substantially better throughout his career. However, that is not the only splits edge Rizzo will have.
Civale gets the majority of his outs via the groundball, and his arsenal is designed to cause weak contact. Although, that's not always been the case, as his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are in the bottom 47 percent of all qualified pitchers.
Getting back to Rizzo, since historical data shows groundball pitchers struggle with flyball hitters, and against righties, Rizzo has a 40 percent flyball rate.
So against Civale, those flyballs will become line drives.
Live Bet: Guardians ML and Under
Jim Turvey: The Yankees and Guardians meet in our only do-or-die game of the Divisional Series round on Monday night, and we are blessed with a starting pitching showdown between … [checks notes] … Aaron Civale and Jameson Taillon?
Juan Marichal vs Sandy Koufax, this is not.
Neither Civale nor Taillon should make it too far into Monday night's game, and that plays into the angle I see being out there for bettors: live betting the Guardians.
There's a very good chance that Cleveland's starter is the worst pitcher they will use all game. Civale ended the season with a 4.92 ERA, albeit with far more respectable advanced numbers (FIP, xFIP, and xERA all came in over a run lower). However, behind him in the pen is a stable of arms that are fresh and potentially able to give New York fits.
The Cleveland bullpen finally gave up a run, but is still rocking a 0.73 ERA this postseason in more than 24 innings. And this is no fluke, the Guardians had the fourth-best bullpen in baseball this season, and they have only leveled up come October.
That's a big difference from New York, which — although it had a top-five bullpen during the regular season as well — is in far worse shape for a couple reasons.
For one, the Yankees' pen is simply not at full health. Five of the top 10 relievers by fWAR this season are not on the postseason roster for a variety of reasons, with the biggest loss being Michael King, who was by far their best reliever this season but was lost for the season in late July.
The Yankees' pen is also far more taxed than Cleveland's pen right now. Of their five best healthy arms, this would be three times pitching in four days for three of them, and for a fourth, Wandy Peralta, it would be four straight days.
On the flip side, none of the top five relievers for Cleveland pitched Sunday, and the top two by ERA, Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak, have two full days of rest already.
The dream start for bettors is for New York to go ahead something like 2-1 in the bottom of the fourth and Cleveland to get up to over +200. If the books are silly enough to do this — in doing so ignoring the massive gap in bullpen rest for Cleveland — pound that thing into oblivion.
But even if you can just get regular plus money on Cleveland on a tie game after the fourth inning or so, it should be a great bet.
Guardians Team Total Over 3 (-133)
Odds via Caesars
DJ James: The New York Yankees tied up the series on Sunday night, but over the last few days, they have taxed their bullpen. Yes, only Wandy Peralta and Clay Holmes threw yesterday, but for Peralta it was his third-straight day, and Jonathan Loáisiga, Clarke Schmidt and Lou Trivino have seen a tremendous amount of action in the series.
The Yankees will throw Jameson Taillon, who has made one appearance in relief, allowing three hits and two critical earned runs without recording an out.
The Guardians will pitch their number-four starter, Aaron Civale.
These two starters are weak, compared to the rest of the team, but New York has used so many bullpen arms, it will need Taillon to pitch deeper. Likely, Peralta would not see much action.
Either way, the Guardians have five bats at the top of the order since August 1 who have a .320+ xwOBA off of right-handers. This should be enough to string together multiple baserunners and score at least three off of Taillon.
In addition, with a short-handed bullpen, the Yankees will allow a run or two late, pushing Cleveland’s team total over.
Neither of these teams have shown themselves as an offensive juggernaut against righties, but Cleveland is a bit undervalued, since it has already hit Taillon in the series.
Take their team total over 3 (-133) to 3.5 (-120).
