Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +166 |
| Braves Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Philadelphia Phillies upset the St. Louis Cardinals in thrilling fashion, winning Game 1 with a huge comeback before shutting down the Redbirds altogether in Game 2.
Their reward is a meeting with the division rival Atlanta Braves. Game 1 will feature Ranger Suarez taking the mound against Atlanta ace Max Fried.
Our analysts have three bets on this game, all centered around the first five innings. These are our best bets from Tuesday's NLDS Game 1 between the Phillies and Braves.
MLB Odds & Picks
Braves First Five -0.5 (-125)
Odds via DraftKings
Kenny Ducey: I’ve been just about the biggest Phillies believer dating back to spring training, but even I have to pump the brakes here. Sure, this team pulled out a thrilling sweep in St. Louis, but the numbers weren’t great.
Of the eight teams that played in the Wild Card Round, the Phillies ranked fifth with a .549 OPS and second-worst with a .158 batting average. So, if you’re looking to excuse the Phillies’ lack of offense by pointing to run production being at a premium all around the league this weekend, know that they still managed to be one of the worst teams offensively.
I’m willing to quickly change my tone on Philadelphia, but heading into Game 1 I can’t get behind these bats. Not with Max Fried on the hill, coming off a brilliant September which saw him post a 2.00 ERA with 11 solid innings against the Phillies where he allowed just three earned runs.
Atlanta was fifth in wRC+ against lefties this season and draws Ranger Suarez, who seemed to be turning things around at the midway point of the season but who crashed and burned as we moved towards October.
I think Fried will blank Philadelphia through five and will bank on this talented offense mustering up at least a run against Suarez.
Phillies First Five Moneyline +155
Odds via BetMGM
Jules Posner: Ranger Suarez has been a solid road pitcher this season and although he's struggled against the Braves in Atlanta in two starts, his overall numbers are weighed down by a bad start early in the season.
The Braves' offense hasn't been particularly strong against LHP at home over the final two months of the season. They were 25th in wRC+ over that span and Suarez held them to one earned run over two starts in his last two appearances against the Braves.
On the other side Max Fried posted a 3.00 ERA, 5.03 FIP and 4.47 xFIP in two home starts against the Phillies this season. So while his raw stats were fine, his underlying metrics suggest a considerable amount of luck went into those outings.
While the Braves hold an edge in terms of the bullpen, the first five innings seem to be more of a coin flip than the odds would imply. The Phillies first five moneyline should be taken at +150 or better.
First Five Over 3.5 (-120)
Odds via BetMGM
Mike Ianniello: After beginning his career as a reliver, the Phillies transitioned Ranger Suarez to the starting rotation and he was brilliant. He finished the 2021 season with a 1.36 ERA and bailed them out in a variety of roles. This season, Suarez has exclusively been a starter and has come back to earth a little bit with a 3.65 ERA over his 29 starts.
Suarez ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in whiff rate and has been just league average in his walk rate. The Braves faced Suarez five teams during the regular season and had mixed results. In two of the starts, he allowed one run or fewer. But in the other three outings he allowed at least three runs.
While Max Fried has been terrific for most of the season, he’s not perfect. Like Suarez, he doesn’t have elite strikeout upside. Philadelphia has seen Fried four times this season, putting up at least two runs on him in three of the four meetings.
The Phillies are much better against left-handed pitchers. Nick Castellanos is batting .556 in his career against Fried and J.T. Realmuto has a .408 wOBA with three home runs against him.
In fact, both of these teams are much better against lefties, so this matchup sets up for both offenses. Atlanta ranks second in wOBA against southpaws and Philadelphia ranks fourth. They both rank top six in wRC+ on the year against left-handed pitching.
The first five innings over was 12-7 between these two teams this season. With this much familiarity in a divisional matchup, I’ll back them to jump off to a fast start in Game 1.
