Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -124 |
| Padres Odds | +106 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-104/-118) |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The San Diego Padres have the chance to move on to the NLCS with a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday in what should be a great game.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a same-game parlay, my approach is all or nothing.
In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation to each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have four plays below for this contest between the Dodgers and Padres. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+1681):
- Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-170)
- Brandon Drury – Record a Run (+155)
- Austin Nola – Record an RBI (+230)
- San Diego Padres ML (+106)
Same-Game Parlay – Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4
Jose Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Taking the mound for the Padres in their potential NLCS-clinching game is right-hander Joe Musgrove, who has been dealing on the mound recently.
Musgrove was San Diego's starter in its win-or-go-home game against the New YorkMets in the Wild Card Round, and he was absolutely brilliant. In that game, he threw seven scoreless frames while allowing just one hit and striking out five.
That outing was an extension of a terrific end to the regular season. Over his last five starts (including the Mets game), Musgrove is 2-0 with a 0.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
One of those starts came against tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that outing, Musgrove tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just four hits and striking out eight.
He has recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six starts this year and in five straight starts against the Dodgers.
Brandon Drury – Record a Run
We are also backing a couple of San Diego hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Tyler Anderson, starting with Brandon Drury. The infielder has been quiet throughout this postseason, but this is a matchup where he could finally make an impact.
Projected to hit in the five-slot, Drury should have plenty of opportunities to get over this total. Through 22 career plate appearances against Anderson, Drury boasts a .318 BA, .636 SLG, and .397 wOBA.
Collecting four doubles and a homer over that stretch, he has shown off his power against the left-hander. We should not expect regression in this specific matchup.
Across those 22 plate appearances, he has produced a .373 xBA, .598 xSLG and .413 xwOBA. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Drury's splits jump by approximately 26% as he has posted a .299 BA, .626 SLG and .955 OPS.
To end the regular season, he recorded eight runs over his last 11 games. Over his last 10 games against the Dodgers, Drury has crossed the plate five times.
Austin Nola – Record an RBI
If we are backing Drury to record a run, then we obviously need someone to drive him in (unless he homers). There is perhaps no better candidate to back in doing so than the guy who is projected to hit three spots behind Drury in the batting order, Austin Nola.
Nola has been a staple at the bottom of the batting order for these playoffs for San Diego. Over their six playoff games thus far, he has posted a .389 BA, .500 SLG and .929 OPS.
We should expect him to keep it going against Anderson. Through his 16 career plate appearances against the left-hander, Nola has produced a .285 xBA, .431 xSLG, and .335 xwOBA.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, his splits jump by approximately 22% as he boasts a .285 BA, .400 SLG and .733 OPS. Recording three RBI through the first six playoff games, I expect Nola to step up once again.
San Diego Padres ML
While many counted out the Padres before the series started, they now have a chance to knock off the World Series favorites at home. Musgrove has already performed under a big pressure situation this postseason with his Game 3 win over the Mets on the road, and he was almost perfect.
Now he has the advantage of pitching on his home diamond, and I am fully confident in his ability to step up once again. He was completely dialed in against the Mets, and we should expect that same tenacity against the Dodgers.
If we are backing the first three legs of this parlay to cash, then it is likely that the Padres are in a winning situation in this contest. San Diego has the pitching advantage in this game while playing in front of its home crowd, which should be enough to end the 111-win Dodgers' season.
