Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5 Odds
| Guardians Odds | +135 |
| Yankees Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Yankees and Guardians will play a decisive Game 5 on Monday night for a spot in the ALCS.
New York would seem to have the initial edge with Jameson Taillon toeing the slab against Aaron Civale, but both teams will have plenty of reinforcements available.
How can we take what we know and turn it into money with a Same Game Parlay? Let's figure that out below.
The Parlay (+290):
- Yankees ML
- Anthony Rizzo to Get a Hit
- Giancarlo Stanton to Get a Hit
Same-Game Parlay — Guardians vs. Yankees
Yankees ML
I noted the Yankees have an advantage in terms of the starting pitchers, and I believe that to be true.
The consensus is that the Guardians should be better lined up here — considering they'll have Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase fully rested — but I'd argue that Civale puts them in a more precarious spot.
In order to fully utilize that back end, you're going to need at least five solid frames from Civale. I don't see it happening.
You can certainly argue that Civale is better than his 4.92 ERA due to his lower 3.80 xERA — which sits in the top half of the league — but that's not the only number we can use to evaluate a pitcher.
In fact, he's got some terrible peripherals outside of that. His Hard Hit Rate is up at 40.4%, his Barrel Rate is 7.5% and his xSLG is .393. These all classify as decidedly below-average.
The Yankees' offense has averaged over three runs per game and has hardly been a huge issue in this series. Considering Civale's lack of strikeouts this season and his issues with power, he should be in a tough spot.
So, I think the Yankees should win this game. Taillon's numbers are comparable, at the very worst, to Civale's, and behind him, I'd be pretty confident in Domingo German (who was great during the regular season) and Nestor Cortes (who was arguably this team's best starter).
Anthony Rizzo to Get a Hit
Rizzo is hitting near the top of the order — which we like — and he's 5-for-10 against Civale in his career — which we really like.
The Yankees' starting first baseman is hitting .286 this postseason, with a hit in every game but Game 3. For his Yankees career, he's hitting .278 in the postseason. He has proven that he will hit in October, and has proven to be a tough out for the Guardians in this series.
Rizzo was .262 against off-speed pitches this year (with a .279 xBA), and Civale is best described as a junk-baller who features a curveball heavily.
I think this is a spectacular matchup.
Giancarlo Stanton to Get a Hit
Would you believe that Stanton is a .263 career postseason hitter? He has just one hit in this series, but I think this matchup with Civale — much like Rizzo's with Civale — is worth exploiting.
Civale throws a cutter 34.8% of the time, according to Statcast, going to the curveball 27.5% of the time. Those just so happen to be two of Stanton's three favorite pitches, posting a .494 and .495 xSLG against them, respectively.
Stanton is normally a great bet to register a hit in the postseason, and despite a tough start to this series, I think Civale should bring the best out of him.
