Phillies vs. Braves Game 2 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +118 |
| Braves Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-125/+105) |
| Time | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Day 1 on the Division Series gave us plenty of action, with a monster walk-off in Houston, a shaky 'pen that made things interesting in Atlanta, and a pair of wins by baseball's two biggest franchises that has Rob Manfred drooling over a potential Yankees–DodgersWorld Series.
But we are far, far from anything like that, of course, and with the American League weirdly being given a day off between Games 1 and 2, the whole spotlight Tuesday will be on the NL, as the Dodgers and Phillies look to expand on their Game 1 victories — L.A. before hitting the road, Philly before getting two home games of its own.
After failing to complete what would have been a big comeback on Monday, Atlanta now finds its backs against the wall, needing a win in Game 2 to avoid heading on the road down 2-0.
As for me, I'm looking to bounce back myself after whiffing entirely on the game script in Houston. Let's get to it.
MLB article plays: 2-3 (45.1 percent ROI)
MLB Action Network App plays: 284-304-34 (4.8 percent ROI)
The Parlay (+700):
- Atlanta moneyline (-140)
- Under 7 (+105)
- Zach Wheeler over 4.5 strikeouts (-164)
- Nick Castellanos under 0.5 singles (-123)
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Braves Game 2
Atlanta Moneyline and Under 7
Let's start with this combo because the logic ties together on them. I usually tend to zag when there is a clear case of #motivation, or the narrative of a team with its back up against the wall. The public loves a motivation edge, and while the public may not be as big a factor in setting a line as we once thought, there can be times where an advantage is to be found on the opposite side.
This is not a play on #motivation, though, but it's a play on its sibling, All Hands On Deck. Atlanta will indeed be doing everything in its power to avoid going back to Philly down 2-0, and in this case, that "everything" may take the form of a middle innings appearance from Spencer Strider.
Atlanta hasn't yet named a plan for the rookie returning from injury, but that seems purposeful. It feels like, while Kyle Wright will get to start Game 2, if anything starts to go awry, Strider will be there with his 1.83 FIP to make sure nothing gets out of hand.
It's hard for me to imagine a world in which Brian Snitker lets Wright allow more than a run or two in this game.
And on the other side of the mound will be Zach Wheeler. Wheeler and Nola were big time for the Phils in their sweep of the Cardinals in the Wild Card Round and now the big righty gets another chance to step up for Philadelphia.
Wheeler is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game right now, and one who ranks among the truly elite in basically every type of metric out there (K-BB%; Stuff plus; xwOBA allowed). Atlanta is very good against fastballs, but his is one of the best in the game, and Atlanta is not as good vs RHP as well. In fact…
Zach Wheeler over 4.5 strikeouts
… they posted the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in 2022.
Caesars originally had this line at 5.5 and the over got you plus money, and I even had it as part of the SGP at that line as well. In fact, I liked it a little bit more because of Atlanta's whiff tendencies vs RHP, as well as the fact that the Phillies are clearly looking to Wheeler and Nola as days where their 'pen can get some rest. In Game 1, the Phillies used seven (!) pitchers in the win, letting Ranger Suarez go only 3 1/3 innings before pulling their starter.
As such, Wheeler is going to get a bit more leash on Tuesday, and that's good news for his strikeout over. So is the fact that in 20 IP against Atlanta this season, Wheeler tallied an impressive 25 strikeouts.
I'm not weighing that small sample too heavily in deciding to include this leg, but it also doesn't hurt. Neither does the fact that Wheeler reached five strikeouts in 21 of his 26 starts (and again, he shouldn't be on the short leash many postseason pitchers get).
Nick Castellanos Under 0.5 singles
This is the funkiest leg of the bunch, and if you leave it off, you still get +388 on the SGP, so feel free to go that route.
However, there are a few things to like about this under. For one, I clearly see a low-scoring game here. Thanks to a less-than-stellar season, Castellanos also hits in the bottom-half of the order, so four plate appearances seems likely. In games where Castellanos got four PA, he failed to get a single in just over half (50 of 99).
Add in:
- He struggles same-sided and will be facing a RHP to start, and potentially the nastiest RHP in the league in relief (Strider),
- He struggles with the pitches that Wright throws most,
- The postseason sees, for a variety of reasons, lower offense
And that gets me to better than the 55 percent implied to include this leg here.
