The only thing better than Game 5 of a Divisional Series is Game 7 of a Championship or World Series.
But let's enjoy this one, anyway.
It's often hard to find value when there's only one baseball game. However, you can always look to the MLB player prop market, and our Action Labs projections lead you straight to the value.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
So, check out my two favorite player props for Game 5 of the Guardians vs Yankees ALDS.
Jameson Taillon Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
| Guardians @ Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Projections see value on both Aaron Civale's and Jameson Taillon's strikeout overs tonight, so you could reasonably go either way. However, the Action Labs Player Props Tool sees slightly more value on Taillon, and we'd rather bet on the prop that has a plus-money price.
There's also this:
Jameson Taillon in 3 career starts against Cleveland:
3.94 ERA, 16 IP, 19 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 16 K’s
Aaron Civale in 5 career starts against the Yankees:
4.78 ERA, 26.1 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 23 K’s
— YankeesMuse (@YankeesMuse) October 17, 2022
I'd rather fade the Guardians' offense, anyway. There's no reason to be scared of Cleveland's soft-hitting offense that has produced almost nothing this postseason run outside of some late-game rallies.
Plus, the Yankees need more depth from Taillon than the Guardians need from Civale. The Yankees' bullpen is hurt and tired, so I'd expect Aaron Boone to give his starter a longer leash than Terry Francona will.
In the end, Taillon has cashed this number in 22 of his 32 starts this season. He also picked up five strikeouts over five one-run innings in his only start against Cleveland this year, back on April 22nd.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool marks Taillon for 4.9 strikeouts while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.0 flat. There are plenty of reasons to bet his over and plenty of value in the number.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+165)
| Guardians @ Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Taillon has a fairly large pitch mix. He can go to six different pitches, although I'd expect him to rely mostly on his four-seam fastball today.
This should give Steven Kwan a great matchup.
Kwan hits fastballs particularly well. He never hits the fastball too hard, because he hits nothing hard, but he hit .326 on 1,173 fastballs seen this season.
Kwan also hits everything. He is one of the best bat-to-ball players in the league. He will not smash the ball, but only Luis Arraez had a higher contact rate than Kwan's 91.9% this season.
His hit tool has worked out well against Taillon in the past. Kwan is 2-for-3 lifetime against Taillon with a single and a double.
Plus, Kwan is on a tear in this series. He's batting .412 with a 1.092 OPS over the past four games. He's seeing the ball well and getting hot at the right time.
It's worth mentioning that Kwan should love Yankee Stadium. Kwan is not a power hitter, as he's only managed seven home runs this season. But if he played every game in the Bronx, that number would jump to 12 thanks to the short porch.
Kwan has already taken advantage of that in this series:
Steven Kwan isn't afraid of the big stage! #Postseasonpic.twitter.com/MgTE8WeynS
— MLB (@MLB) October 12, 2022
FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Kwan for 1.56 total bases today, which gives us tons of value on this line posted at FanDuel.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+165)
