Wild Card Round weekend was awesome, but the Divisional Round should be even better.
There are stars littered across the diamond for all eight teams. That makes it the perfect opportunity to bet some player props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Phillies @ Braves | |
| First Pitch | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Max Fried has had his fair share of postseason experience. He pitched to a 2.91 xFIP during the Braves' 2021 World Series run, fueled by his 25.4% strikeout rate.
Fried made five starts for the Braves last postseason and managed five or more strikeouts in four of them. That includes a nine-strikeout performance in his lone NLDS start.
Fried will be fine. He has the strikeout stuff and that rainbow curveball has a 40% whiff rate.
Max Fried, Beautiful Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/APR80GCmLX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 1, 2022
Meanwhile, I am worried about the Phillies. Philadelphia's offense has upside, but the lineup was poor against southpaws down the stretch. Against LHPs in September and October, the Phillies paired a league-average offense (99 wRC+) with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.6%).
Fried cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 21 of his 30 starts this season. He's struck out at least five in six of his last seven starts against Philadelphia, including 25 over his last 23 innings.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Fried for 6.5 strikeouts tonight, which I think is more in line with what we should expect from him in Game 1. I'll happily bet his over at 4.5.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Logan Gilbert Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| Mariners @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I'm not high on Logan Gilbert for this postseason run. Here at the Action Network, we affectionately refer to him as "Luckbox Logan," given his propensity for getting out of jams (77.6% strand rate) and overperforming his peripherals (3.20 ERA, 4.11 xERA).
Moreover, I'm really high on Houston's lineup. The Astros finished the season with a top-five ISO (.176) and a bottom-five strikeout rate (19.5%). That combination of plate discipline and power is hard to come by.
But this line is just too low.
Just because Gilbert is lucky doesn't mean he's incapable. He has a career 24% strikeout rate and four pitches with a whiff rate above 24%. He's struck out at least four batters in 82% of his career starts (46 of 56), which should imply -460 odds to the over.
Moreover, Gilbert steps up against the Astros. He has struck out at least four Astros in six of seven career starts against Houston. He posted a 2.52 ERA against Houston in four starts this season.
Logan Gilbert vs HOU in 2022: 4 starts, 2.52 ERA, 22 K, 8 BB, 1.080 WHIP
1st start: 7 IP, 4 hits, 5 K – 6-0 win in SEA
2nd: 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 hits, 3 K, 3 BB – 6-3 win at HOU
3rd: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 8 K, 1 BB – 3-1 loss in SEA
4th: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 hits, 6 K, 2 BB – 4-2 loss at HOU— Brandon Gustafson (@TheBGustafson) October 9, 2022
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool Tool projects Gilbert for 5.6 strikeouts tonight, giving us a 25% edge over the line posted at DraftKings and making this our top-rated play of the day.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)
| Padres @ Dodgers | |
| First Pitch | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Manny Machado carried the Padres this season. The Padres would be nowhere without Machado in the middle of the lineup.
Manny Machado doesn’t have a teammate Top-15 in NL fWAR. Other MVP candidates have TWO.
1) Machado (SD) – 7.4
2) Arenado (STL) – 7.3
3) Goldschmidt (STL) – 7.1
4) Freeman (LAD) – 7.1
6) Betts (LAD) – 6.6
9) Turner (LAD) – 6.3
14) Edman (STL) – 5.6Most Valuable Player? Manny. pic.twitter.com/9crzq4uhUw
— Darnay Tripp (@DarnayTripp) October 7, 2022
The Padres have been good from a plate discipline perspective but have been incredibly poor from a power perspective. The whole offense finished bottom-10 in SLG (.382), ISO (.141) and home runs (151).
But not Machado, who posted a career-high wOBA (.382) and sweet-spot rate (36.7%) with a hard-hit rate over 50%.
Machado continues to carry his offense in the postseason. Machado had a 94.3 mph avg. exit velocity and a 57% hard-hit rate in the two Wild Card Round games, racking up a home run, a double and a single in the two games.
Look at how hard this ball was hit:
Manny Machado adds to the Padres lead!
It’s the first time in Max Scherzer’s postseason career he’s given up 4 homers pic.twitter.com/QVbieVn62C
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 8, 2022
Either way, Machado has a good matchup tonight, as he is 10-for-27 lifetime off Julio Urias with four home runs. He's only struck out three times in that stretch and has had a 95 mph avg. exit velocity.
When you make hard contact, you're going to pile up base totals. Machado's batted-ball statistics in those ABs produce a .912 xSLG.
Urias is amazing, but he still has typical platoon splits. His wOBA allowed jumps 30 points against the right side versus the left side. Meanwhile, Machado's ISO jumps 27 points against lefties than righties.
Machado is not scared of the Dodgers, considering he has a 126 wRC+ against his former team on the season. If any San Diego hitter is going to make noise in Game 1, it will be Manny.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+160)
