The 2024 MLB playoffs are (nearly) here!
First, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will play a doubleheader on Monday to determine the final two NL Playoff spots and the Thursday opponents for the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres. If the Braves and Mets split on Monday, they'll each make the playoffs, but if either team sweeps the season-ending doubleheader, the Arizona Diamondbacks will join them in October.
My projections for Braves-Mets Game 1 for Monday and the ALCS Game Ones for Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. Follow me in the Action Network App for bet notifications, including sides, totals, and future additions throughout the playoffs. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Below, I'll examine the 2024 playoff field and provide my updated projections for pennant and World Series futures.
While I profited nearly nine units on team and player stat leader futures during the regular season, I limited my preseason exposure to the pennant and World Series markets. My only remaining preseason team future is Atlanta to win the World Series (+650), well before the Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. injuries.
In-season, I added futures on the Padres (+3500 World Series and +1600 NL Pennant) after the trade deadline and again on September 24 (+1500 and +700, respectively). I also took the Astros to win the World Series (bet +1000 on August 30) as my only remaining AL future.
Let's discuss whether there's still value for those teams or any other contenders to make a run in October.
MLB Playoff Predictions, Odds, Expert Picks for World Series, Pennant, More
Performance to Date
Before diving into my future projections, I'll examine how the remaining teams stack up in multiple phases. We'll discuss this data in more detail in game previews over the coming weeks. Still, it's always worth noting that this type of data captures the full-season or second-half picture for these teams and may not represent the construct of their current rosters after accounting for injuries, trades, and prospect promotions.
By Pythagorean record, the Kansas City Royals were the unluckiest team (-5 wins) compared to their final record; however, the Royals also limped into the playoffs after a poor final six weeks, despite winning 12 of their 13 games against the Chicago White Sox this season. The Tigers (10-3) and Guardians (8-5) didn't pad their records as severely against their lowly divisional rival.
The Astros, Braves, Brewers, and the New York Yankees each underperformed by two wins this season. Conversely, the Guardians, Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies each overperformed by two wins compared to their final record.
Arizona has one of the best second-half records (40-25) in MLB, but they have collapsed down the stretch (13-17 in their final 30 games), and the Braves (14-10 in September) and Mets (16-8) both have a chance to pass them on Monday.
San Diego has been the best team in baseball since the All-Star break (43-20, a 111-win pace), but the Dodgers (42-23) played nearly as well to hold off their charge in the NL West.
The Tigers (34-19, a 104-win pace since August 1) are the hottest team in the AL, but the Astros (32-21 over that span) have done their best work in the second half too.
Quietly, the Orioles and Phillies played .500 baseball in the second half (33-33 record for both clubs, with a combined +10 run differential) after piling up wins over the season's first three months.
The Yankees have the best record against winning opponents, emerging victories in 60% of those contests (a 97-win pace).
Pitching Quality
Philadelphia has the best overall pitching staff. It is the only team with a sub-four xFIP, K-BB% greater than 15%, and a Pitching+ rating of 102 or higher in both its starting rotation and bullpen (the bullpens for Atlanta and San Diego also met those filters).
The Phillies bullpen is a completely rebuilt unit after their 2023 postseason collapse, but it is worth noting that they struggled in the second half (20th in xFIP, 22nd in K-BB%, 19th in Stuff+, 8th in Pitching+, 16th in botERA).
I'd rate the Padres – whose starting pitchers (101 Pitching+) just missed the cutoff for the above filters – as the second-best overall staff. Their rotation would qualify for the same filters as Philadelphia's pitchers if you isolated since Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove returned to their rotation (103 Pitching+ in September).
Moreover, since adding Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at the trade deadline, the Padres bullpen has arguably been the best individual position group in baseball (3.34 xFIP, 19.8% K-BB%, 3.42 botERA, 122 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+).
If you lower the Pitching+ filter to 100, bullpens for Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, and Milwaukee enter the conversation. And if I isolate for second-half numbers, Arizona's bullpen (3.84 xFIP, 15.6% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) enters the mix too.
Milwaukee (19th in second-half xFIP from their starting pitchers) and Cleveland (22nd), in particular, need to deploy their talented bullpens (4th and 11th in second-half xFIP) aggressively in the postseason.
However, I don't trust the bullpens for the Royals (16th in second-half xFIP, 17th in K-BB%, 17th in botERA), Yankees (5th, 16th, 20th, 18th) or Dodgers (21st, 18th, 19th, 15th).
The Dodgers' playoff rotation is also a significant question mark, with Jack Flaherty struggling in September (4.07 xFIP, 13.4% K-BB%) but pitching ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler, both of whom spent significant time on the IL this season.
Offensive Production and Splits
I'm typically drawn to teams that put the ball in play in October, and the Padres (17%) had the lowest strikeout rate in MLB in the second half, ahead of the Diamondbacks (19.6%, 3rd), Royals (20.1%, 4th), Astros (20.6%, 7th), and Guardians (20.9%, 8th).
The Yankees (10th) and Dodgers (11th) don't strike out nearly as much as you'd expect either – and both walk a ton – and, along with the other teams I mentioned, encompass the better half of the playoff field in strikeout rate.
Conversely, the Tigers (24.4%, 23rd in the second half), Braves (24.1%, 22nd), and Brewers (23.6%, 18th)—who also rank in the bottom three of the potential playoff field by K% over the entire season—all whiff too much for my liking.
The Padres, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers have far better offensive splits against righties than lefties; conversely, the Braves, Guardians, Mets, and Phillies have performed better against southpaws.
Baserunning & Defense – Team Rankings
Lastly, I compared the remaining contenders, combining their rankings in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Baserunning runs Above Average (BsR). Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Detroit stand out in these hidden areas.
The Brewers, Guardians, Royals, and Tigers each grade out as high-end defensive teams by either advanced metric. At the same time, the Astros and Orioles are the only consensus below-average defensive clubs according to the rankings.
There's a broader range of defensive results from the Royals (nine spots between the two rankings), Diamondbacks (14), and Dodgers (15).
Oddly, Kansas City has generated more DRS from its Pitchers (+21) than any other team (Baltimore second at +14). Also, the Royals rate highly in catcher defense (+11, T-4th)—two things that I think OAA (which has them as the No. 1 overall defensive team) typically underrates.
Conversely, the Diamondbacks (-7 DRS from pitchers/catchers combined) and Dodgers (-2 combined) had below-average defensive batteries – but rated as either a top-five team or league average, depending upon the data point.
I don't have access to first-half/second-half splits for defensive stats, but the Mets were a bottom-five team by DRS over the first few months of the season. Their second-half surge has been partly due to improved defensive play.
The Brewers, Phillies, and Tigers rank first through third on the MLB sprint speed leaderboard, and they each rank among the top ten baserunning teams this season. Los Angeles, Kansas City, and San Diego are also reliable to hurt opponents on the basepaths.
Conversely, the Yankees (30th in baserunning value, 30th in sprint speed), Braves (25th, 29th), Astros (29th, 17th), and Mets (24th, 25th) are far more power reliant.
Pennant Projections
Based on my projections, four teams—the Yankees and Guardians in the AL and the Braves and Padres in the NL—offer value to win their respective pennants.
In the AL, I prefer the favorites and project slight value on both the Yankees (projected +151, listed +180 at Fanduel) and Guardians (projected +341, listed +425 at Bet365), with the Astros (projected +388, listed +380 at DraftKings) just out of range.
The consensus projection – which is an average of the forecasts from FanGraphs, ATC, and The Bat X – shows the slightest edge on the Yankees (projected +179), which is entirely from the Bat X projection (38.1% or +162 implied)
On true talent, I rate New York (94 wins) slightly ahead of Houston (93.6) and have those two teams well clear of the field (Baltimore 90.8, Cleveland 87.2, Detroit 85, Kansas City 80.8) as we enter the playoffs.
Despite their lack of quality starting pitching, a fully rested Guardians bullpen could threaten the Astros in a five-game series. Still, the Yankees also benefit by avoiding their most difficult AL opponent until the ALCS—if not entirely. I would want +160 or better for the Yankees and at least +375 to bet the Guardians.
The Braves (+1300 at FanDuel) are the only NL value match between my projection and the composite number. They need a win on Monday to get into the playoffs but have an elite pitching staff led by soon-to-be NL Cy Young Chris Sale.
I'm uncertain about investing in the Braves before Monday; if they lose Game 1, Chris Sale will throw in Game 2 – which would significantly harm their chances in a wild card round. However, if they can win Game 1, I'd be more interested in their futures and wild card series price.
I've made the case for the Padres for months: the lowest strikeout rate offensively, the best bullpen in baseball, and a suddenly loaded starting rotation featuring Dylan Cease, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish – all of whom are throwing the ball well down the stretch. Bet San Diego to win the NL Pennant at +550 (15.4% implied) or better.
World Series Projections
The same teams mentioned for pennant futures—the Guardians (projected +800, listed +1100) and Yankees (projected +355, listed +450) in the AL, and the Padres (projected +1000, listed +1200) and Braves (projected +1700, listed +2500) in the NL—offer value to win the World Series compared to my projections.
Moreover, the composite projection likes the Yankees (projected +435) and Braves (projected +1438). Still, I'm only interested in Atlanta if they win Game 1 on Monday (and can save Sale for the wild card round).
Consider betting the Yankees down to +400 (20% implied), the Guardians or Padres to +1000 (9.1% implied), and the Braves to +2000 (4.8% implied).
World Series Matchups
Combining the teams who pop up as potential pennant +EV bets to win their respective leagues (Braves and Pades in the NL; Guardians and Yankees in the AL) don't combine for +EV bets in the World Series matchup market.
And if you manually parlay Pennant winners together, you can likely get better odds at the same book (Ex. A Padres NL Pennant with Yankees AL Pennant parlay is +1860 at FanDuel vs. +1800 in the exact result market).
- Padres vs. Yankees (+1800 at FanDuel)
- Padres vs. Guardians (+2800)
- Braves vs. Yankees (+5500)
- Braves vs. Guardians (+6000 at BetMGM)
As of writing, only BetMGM and FanDuel have posted odds in this market. We'll revisit this market closer to Tuesday to see if any other books post odds or potential edges relative to these projections.
Bets
- TBD
Value Recommendations
- AL Pennant: Cleveland (+425 at Bet365)
- AL Pennant: NY Yankees (+180 at FanDuel)
- NL Pennant: Atlanta (+1300 at FanDuel)
- NL Pennant: San Diego (+600 at FanDuel)
- World Series: Atlanta (+2500 at FanDuel)
- World Series: Cleveland (+1100 at FanDuel)
- World Series: NY Yankees (+450 at FanDuel)
- World Series: San Diego (+1200 at DraftKings)
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