MLB's Divisional Round continues Sunday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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Here’s how I'd approach Sunday's MLB slate.
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Jose Altuve Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Pablo Lopez takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins and should be a good candidate to back against the Houston Astros.
One of the most underrated pitchers in the AL, Lopez went 11-8 in the regular season with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His underlying metrics were even stronger as he ranked in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Chase%, K% and BB%.
That success continued into the Wild Card round as he shut down the Toronto Blue Jays. Lopez's success could continue against Houston, or at least against Jose Altuve.
Through three career plate appearances against Lopez, Altuve is 0-3 with two strikeouts. Yes, that's a small sample size, but it's also worth noting that Altuve has typically struggled at Minute Maid Park this season as his splits drop by roughly 33% at home.
Yeah, he homered in Game 1, but Lopez is an entirely different beast than Bailey Ober.
Kyle Tucker Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade the guy who hits two spots behind Altuve in the batting order — Kyle Tucker.
Tucker's contact numbers took a slight dip to end the regular season as he posted a .238 batting average over his final 17 games. Tucker's power numbers remained up, but that could be neutralized by Lopez's ability to limit hard-hit baseballs.
Speaking of Lopez, Tucker is hitless against him through two career plate appearances. His underlying metrics over those two at-bats are also poor (.149 xBA and .295 xSLG).
Like Altuve, Tucker's splits also take a dip when playing at home this year, dropping by a noteworthy 25%. Tucker has also seen a 9% drop in performance when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Jorge Polanco More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to back a member of the Twins as left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound for Houston. Valdez saw some heavy regression this year and posted a 3.46 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 31 starts.
That is almost more of a testament to how good he looked last season since those numbers are still solid. However, his analytics are much more concerning. Entering the postseason, Valdez ranks in the 49th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us to Jorge Polanco, who was limited this season and played just 80 games. However, he produced a respectable .255 BA, a .454 SLG and a .789 OPS over that period.
Polanco has turned it up another notch in the postseason, posting a .333 BA, a .583 SLG and a .968 OPS through three games. Polanco should be able to keep it going against Valdez, a pitcher whom he boasts a .375 BA, a .563 SLG and a .427 wOBA against through 18 career plate appearances.
