MLB's Wild Card Series kick off Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I'd approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Bryce Harper More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Left-hander Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for the Miami Marlins and could be a good fade candidate against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Luzardo has put together a solid campaign, going 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. With that said, his 3.99 xERA suggests regression is looming, especially considering that he also ranks in the 44th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
The first Philadelphia hitter to back is Bryce Harper, who has been tremendous over the second half of the season. Over his past 49 games, Harper boasts a .299 BA, a .665 SLG and a 1.095 OPS with 16 homers.
Trea Turner More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
In a play with some strong correlation, we're also going to back the guy who hits two spots ahead of Harper in the batting order — Trea Turner.
Turner started turning things around at about the same time as Harper, which is why the Phillies are peaking at the right time. Over his past 49 games, Turner owns a .337 BA, a .663 SLG and a 1.051 OPS with 16 homers.
He also typically performs better against left-handed pitching as his splits, since 2021, jump by roughly 12% when doing so. We could kill two birds with one stone here if Turner reaches base and Harper knocks him in.
Luis Arraez Less Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
We're also going to fade a member of the Marlins as right-hander Zack Wheeler starts the series for Philadelphia.
Putting together yet another strong season, Wheeler is 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. His analytics are also tremendous as he ranks in the 87th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity and Barrel%.
As many pitchers have this year, Wheeler got shelled by Atlanta a few weeks ago. Outside of that outing, he's allowed more than three earned runs just once over his past 14 starts.
That brings us to Luis Arraez, who is typically an on-base machine. However, he's just 2-for-9 in his career with a .222 BA, a .333 SLG and a .236 wOBA against Wheeler.
He's also dealing with an ankle injury, which is worth keeping an eye on.
