New York's Game 5 ALDS win over Cleveland solidified our Championship Series matchups.
Because of the weather delay in the NYY-CLE series, we are lucky enough to have two Championship Series games Wednesday. To celebrate that, I have found two player props I love and another two I'm considering.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
| Phillies @ Padres | |
| First Pitch | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Padres are slumping. The bats went cold in Game 1, with San Diego having just one hit against Zack Wheeler, Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado while striking out 11 times.
Eight of those strikeouts came against Wheeler, who pitched seven near-perfect innings.
While Wheeler is one of the league's premiere pitchers, Aaron Nola might be better. Nola is putting together three true-outcome numbers that have never been seen before.
Aaron Nola ends the season with 235 strikeouts and 29 walks in 205 innings of work, the second pitcher in baseball history with a season of over 200 innings pitched with 230 or more strikeouts and 30 or fewer walks. The other pitcher to do this was Jim Whitney in 1884. pic.twitter.com/tnPVjSF8zH
— tbone (@deadbrain44) October 4, 2022
Nola's ERA was kept slightly up by some horrendous defense behind him, but he posted career-low expected statistics.
This also looks like a great matchup for Nola's strikeout potential.
The Padres are a good lineup from a plate discipline perspective. They make a lot of contact and never chase. However, Nola is one of the best control guys in the league, and he should directly attack a Padres lineup that cannot hit the ball hard.
Nola also posted a career year with his fastball, recording 26 Weighted Fastball Runs Created (FanGraphs) and a -10 Run Value (Baseball Savant). Meanwhile, the Padres were a bottom-10 team in Weighted Fastball Runs but were above-average against the rest of Nola's arsenal.
If Nola plays to his advantage, he will throw the fastball early and often, resulting in plenty of pitcher's counts and strikeout opportunities.
Everything says Nola should take advantage. He's cashed this number in 27 of his 34 starts this season (79%) and in both of his playoff starts this year. In two starts against the Padres since 2021, Nola finished with double-digit strikeout totals both times.
Projections also love Nola today, with three different models projecting Nola to go over this number:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.9 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 6.1 Ks
- BallParkPal's Pitcher Simulations: 6.2 Ks
But you can still bet Nola over 5.5 Ks at even money at FanDuel.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
| Yankees @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Kyle Tucker has always been an under-the-radar elite outfielder. He's recorded 10 fWAR over the past two seasons with a combined wRC+ well over 130. He finished last year's near-World Series with 136 postseason wRC+, too.
Tucker looks ready for this year. He piled up seven total bases in the series against Seattle and finished the three-game set slashing .267/.313/.467.
Kyle Tucker stays one of the most underrated players in baseball. pic.twitter.com/vvVOi3p0Di
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) October 13, 2022
I also love this matchup with Yankee starter Jameson Taillon.
First, Tucker has great platoon splits, with his average jumping 50 points against RHPs, while his wRC+ jumps 35 points. Meanwhile, Taillon's xFIP jumps from 3.47 against RHHs to 4.22 against LHHs.
Second, Tucker loves Taillon's arsenal. Taillon is a fastball/slider-dependent pitcher, throwing the combination 54.5% of the time. Meanwhile, Tucker has a combined +29 Run Value on those two pitches, posting an xSLG close to .550 and a Hard-Hit rate close to 45%.
Finally, Tucker has had success against Taillon in the past. Tucker is 3-for-5 lifetime of Taillon with two extra-base hits. His 94 mph avg. exit velocity and 14.4-degree avg. launch angle on those batted balls projects a .920 xSLG and a .628 xwOBA.
FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Tucker for 1.65 total bases in this matchup, giving us plenty of value to bet this heavy plus-money number. I'd also consider betting him to home run at +500 on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+145)
Also Under Consideration:
- Justin Verlander Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-152 at BetRivers): Projection systems all have him reaching at least six strikeouts today but the juice is a little high.
- Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+140 at FanDuel):BallParkPal's Player Props Tool makes this line +120, giving us slight value. Plus, Soto has a .702 xSLG against Nola in the past. However, Soto hasn't been hitting well this playoff run.
