We have a three-game slate on Friday as Game 2 of the Guardians/Yankees series got pushed back a day due to inclement weather.
Player props have become among the most popular plays in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Friday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Shane Bieber Over 5.5 Strikeouts
To kick the day off, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians with a 1-0 series lead. Taking the mound for Cleveland is right-hander Shane Bieber, who should be an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department.
Not only did Bieber record eight strikeouts in his first playoff outing against the Rays, but he has punched out at least six hitters in 11 of his past 14 starts. Across that stretch, the right-hander is 10-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.
We should expect this dominant stretch of pitching to continue against New York. While he has only faced the Yankees three times in his career, Bieber has recorded six or more strikeouts in two of those starts.
Since September 1, New York ranks just 20th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at the Yankees' projected lineup for Game 2, four of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 25%.
Nestor Cortes Over 4 Strikeouts
On the other side, left-hander Nestor Cortes is slated to take the mound for New York. It is understandable that the total is set so low against a stingy Cleveland lineup, but this line is too much of an over-adjustment.
Cortes has recorded at least four strikeouts in nine of his past 11 starts. Over that stretch, the left-hander is 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.
Cortes has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his past two starts against Cleveland, both of which were this season. In these playoffs, all three of the starting pitchers to go against the Guardians have recorded at least five strikeouts.
Freddie Freeman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
Friday's nightcap is Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. We will back a couple of Dodgers hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against left-hander Blake Snell.
These plays are certainly not a fade of Snell, who has been as excellent as advertised. However, in a battle of strength versus strength, I am siding with Los Angeles' bats.
Freddie Freeman is the first hitter worth backing because in 11 career plate appearances against Snell, he boasts a .444 BA, a .556 SLG and a .481 wOBA. We shouldn't expect any regression in this matchup as Freeman has posted a .432 xBA, a .548 xSLG and a .477 xwOBA.
After a quiet Game 1, the first baseman got back into form on Wednesday with a homer and a double. The stars step up in October and I expect another good outing from one of the best in the league.
Trea Turner Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7
Trea Turner is the other Dodgers star we are backing in this contest. Turner has homered in each of the first two games to start this series and we're going to keep riding the train until it derails.
Through 17 career plate appearances against Snell, Turner has posted a .200 BA, a .400 SLG and a .301 wOBA. Those aren't the greatest splits, but the .400 SLG is promising when you combine it with how well Turner has been seeing the ball lately.
Turner posted a .296 BA, a .461 SLG and a .803 OPS during the regular season and has been a key part of the Dodgers' offense. That should continue throughout the playoffs.
Tony Gonsolin Over 3 Strikeouts
In our last play, we are going to back Los Angeles' starting pitcher. Tony Gonsolin put together an incredible campaign and went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across 24 starts.
San Diego has been hitting well, but this number is too low as Gonsolin has recorded at least three strikeouts in 23 of his 24 (!!) starts this season. In his career against the Padres, Gonsolin is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He's also notched at least three strikeouts in five of six appearances against the Padres.
