Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3 Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -125 |
| Padres Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet on Friday night in Game 3 of the NLDS with the series shifting to San Diego.
The Padres got the upset win in Game 2 to steal home-field advantage and even things up heading into this pivotal Game 3, where Tony Gonsolin will take the mound against Blake Snell.
The Dodgers are short favorites in this intriguing pitching matchup, but is there value on the underdogs? Our analysts are focused on the first five innings tonight, with a couple of underdog picks and one on the total.
Here are our three best bets from Friday night's NLDS Game 3 between the Dodgers and Padres.
MLB Odds & Picks
Padres First Five -104
Odds via FanDuel
DJ James: Blake Snell had one of the best second halves of any pitcher in baseball as hee owned a 2.19 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP after the break and ended the regular season with a 3.19 xERA and a 3.38 ERA.
Tony Gonsolin takes the hill for the Dodgers and had a great 2022 campaign with a 2.14 ERA and a 3.12 xERA. He was essentially neck-and-neck with Snell in xERA, placing value on the underdog on Friday night.
In addition, the Padres had a 108 wRC+ since August 1 against righties, while Los Angeles posted a 107 wRC+ against lefties and carried a worse walk rate.
The Dodgers definitely have the edge when it comes to bullpens. They ranked first in the MLB in LOB percentage, while San Diego came in at 17th. The issue mainly comes down to lockdown arms in relief and the Dodgers have more options.
Gonsolin has feasted off of luck, while Snell has looked like his Cy Young self again in the second half. Take San Diego in the first five and play it to -115.
Jules Posner: Although Blake Snell was not stellar in the Wild Card Round against the New YorkMets, he still did his best to navigate a lineup that is tough on LHP and did his best not to give in despite a rare day of shaky command.
He now gets to take on a Dodgers offense that has been surprisingly weak against LHP on the road down the home stretch, and hopefully he got the early playoff nerves out of his system.
On the other side, Tony Gonsolin has only made one appearance since August 23rd as he dealt with arm issues. Now he'll be thrown into the fire in a setting where he has not enjoyed much success. He currently possesses a 9.45 ERA and an 8.74 FIP in his postseason career, and a deeper look at his season numbers reveal he may have been somewhat of a fluke in 2022.
His road ERA was an excellent 2.66, but his FIP and xFIP were around a full run higher. He has enjoyed success against the Padres this season, but has not pitched in Petco Park this season.
The Padres' F5 moneyline has value so long as it's close to plus money.
First Five Under 3.5 (+100)
Odds via FanDuel
Mike Ianniello: In the first five innings of the first two games, these teams combined for eight runs and six runs. Two runs have been scored in the first inning of both games, and these offenses have been able to settle in quickly.
As the series shifts to San Diego, I think we also see a shift in the action as the pitchers settle in and perform a little better. Tony Gonsolin was tremendous for the Dodgers this season, going 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA. In 24 starts this season, he allowed just one run or less in 16 of them.
In two starts against the Padres, Gonsolin allowed just one run over 12 2/3 innings while striking out 14. He landed on the IL late but returned on October 3 to make one start. He looked like his old self, but lasted just two innings as they eased him back in.
After a brutal start to the season, Blake Snell really got things going in the second half of the year. He posted a 2.19 ERA following the All-Star break. He still has elite strikeout stuff with his 12.02 K/9 rate ranking second in the league among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.
Snell struggled in one start against the Dodgers but he was terrific in his other two, including a five inning shutout in the most recent matchup. Snell only averages about 5 1/3 innings per start and with Gonsolin returning from the IL recently, he could still be on a pitch count.
Because this could be an extended game for the bullpens a bit, I’ll back under 3.5 in the first five innings and hope we see a different game script than the first two contests.
