On Sunday, we have the only matchup from the Wild Card round to go to sudden death as the NL East's New York Mets host the NL West's San Diego Padres.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Let’s take a look at some of the options for Padres vs. Mets slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Austin Nola Under 0.5 Total Bases
We are going to be fading a few San Diego hitters in this matchup as they are slated to go against right-hander Chris Bassitt. Through 30 starts this season, Bassitt is 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Based on his metrics, we should not expect any regression from the right-hander as he boasts a .290 xwOBA, .228 xBA, and .359 xSLG this season. The first Padres hitter we are fading is Austin Nola.
It has not been the strongest year for San Diego's starting catcher, who possesses a mere .251 BA, .329 SLG, and .650 OPS. We are getting this prop because he has recorded a hit in each of his last three games, but this is a bad matchup for Nola.
Through his two career plate appearances against Bassitt, Nola is 0-2 with a strikeout. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Nola's splits take a big dip as he has produced a .230/.286/.599 slash line.
Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other San Diego hitter we are fading in this game is infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Like Nola, It has not been the strongest year for Kim as he has posted a .251 BA, .383 SLG, and .708 OPS.
Also like Nola, this is a poor matchup for Kim. Through five career plate appearances against New York's right-hander, he is just 1-5 with two strikeouts.
His metrics through those five at-bats are troubling, seeing as he has produced a .092 xBA, .099 xSLG, and .086 xwOBA. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Kim's splits drop to a .243/.377/.681 slash line.
Brandon Nimmo Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6
We are also going to be fading a few Mets hitters in this contest, seeing as they are slated to go against right-hander Joe Musgrove. Earning a big ticket this season, Musgrove has been brilliant in a season where he signed a massive extension.
Through 30 starts, he is 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His metrics are as strong as you would expect them to be, posting a .282 xwOBA, .225 xBA, and .351 xSLG.
Additionally, Musgrove ended the regular season in excellent form. Over his last four starts, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
The first New York hitter we are fading is Brandon Nimmo. We are getting a high number on this prop because Nimmo has been great recently and, frankly, all season.
However, this is a poor matchup for the Mets outfielder. In his career against Musgrove, Nimmo is 0-6.
His splits when facing left- and right-handed pitching this season are nearly identical, so I am not too concerned about the left-handed batter facing a right-hander. Going against Musgrove, this should be a great time to sell high on Nimmo.
Tomas Nido Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other New York hitter we are fading in this matchup is Tomas Nido. It has been a difficult season for Nido, who has posted a .239 BA, .324 SLG, and .600 OPS through 98 games this season.
Based on his metrics, positive regression should not be an issue as he has produced a .287 xwOBA, .242 xBA, and .378 xSLG. In his career against Musgrove, the Mets' catcher is just 1-6 with two strikeouts.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Nido's splits take a big drop as he has posted a .227/.297/.555 slash line. Slated to hit at the bottom of the order for Game 3, I would be surprised if Nido is able to pull anything off against Musgrove.
