The 2023 MLB playoffs are here!
If you have followed me since the beginning of the season, you should have several World Series and pennant futures around the playoff bracket at juicy prices, including larger positions on the Braves to win the National League (+500) and the World Series (+1000), and smaller sprinkles on the Orioles to win the American League (+1200) and the World Series (+2800), the Blue Jays to win the American League (+1000) and the World Series (+2500) and the Rays to win the World Series (+2500).
However, if you aren't already on the baseball futures train and are just tuning in now — that's OK too. There is still some value in the playoff futures markets. Last season in this piece, we cashed tickets on both pennant winners (+120 on Houston and +2000 on Philadelphia), in addition to an exact World Series Matchup prop (+4000) for those two teams to meet.
Below, we'll look at how the 2023 playoff field stacks up, price the Wild Card Round matchups, and examine my updated projections for pennant and World Series futures.
Performance to Date
Before diving into my projections, I like to examine how the remaining teams stack up in multiple phases. Still, it's worth noting that this data captures the full-season picture and may not represent the construct of their current rosters after accounting for injuries, trades, and prospect promotions.
The remaining teams ordered by pitching effectiveness (per xFIP) show how these teams potentially stack up on the mound:
Still, the graphic provides a strong example of the danger of using full-season samples when comparing teams and players. Tampa Bay finished with a league-average bullpen this season but ranked just 24th in the first half (4.60 xFIP) compared to first in the second half of the season (3.65 xFIP).
The bullpens for the Rays, Brewers (3.82 xFIP), Dodgers (3.82), Braves (3.91), Orioles (4.06), and Blue Jays (4.18) all ranked in the top 10 for xFIP during the second half of this season. The Rays, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Phillies ranked in the top 10 for starting pitcher xFIP over the same span.
Pitching models — using Stuff+ and Location+ — ranked the playoff bullpens as follows over the second half: Rays (1st), Dodgers (2nd), Marlins (4th), Orioles (5th), Phillies (6th), Braves (8th), Brewers (10th), Blue Jays (12th), Rangers (13th), Twins (15th), Astros (16th), Diamondbacks (22nd).
In terms of offense, the below graphic shows team splits for (wRC+) against right-handed and left-handed pitching, where 100 is the league average:
As you can see, the Marlins performed better against lefties than righties — and may find positive matchups in a potential elimination game against Cristopher Sanchez or Ranger Suarez — while the Twins have the opposite issue, struggling against southpaw pitching, which may cause the Blue Jays to deploy Yusei Kikuchi or Hyun-Jin Ryu — as opposed to Chris Bassitt — in a must-win game.
While the Diamondbacks rank near the bottom of all playoff teams in both batting and pitching effectiveness and carry the second-worst run-differential (15) of the 12 remaining clubs, they ranked as the second-best defensive team and sixth-best baserunning team per FanGraphs, easily the lowest combined ranking in those categories among the 12 playoff teams (smaller is better):
Conversely, the Marlins ranked 29th among the 30 MLB clubs this season in both baserunning value and defensive value. And when you factor in Miami's below-average offense and pitching staff — relative to the other playoff teams — and an extremely difficult path through the defending NL champion Phillies, the World Series favorite Braves, and then potentially the Dodgers too, you can understand why Miami has my lowest projected NL pennant and World Series probabilities.
Pennant Projections
Based upon my projections, four teams— the Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles, and Twins — offer some value to win their respective pennants if you shop around. If you didn't tail my previous futures wagers. I'd create a small futures portfolio involving all four teams.
In the NL, the Dodgers (+225 at Caesars) and Phillies (+700 at FanDuel) each offer a slight edge compared to both my projection and the FanGraphs forecast; still, neither bet represents a significant edge compared to the projected lines. I'm also lower on the Diamondbacks and Marlins relative to the public projection.
In the AL, I like the Orioles (+285 at DraftKings) and Twins (+800 at Caesars) as potential value plays, while FanGraphs prefers the Astros (+200 at Caesars) and Blue Jays (+800 at Caesars).
There's much more disagreement between my assessment of the AL field and the public projections, which view the defending champion Astros as a much more imposing contender, as opposed to the more closely aligned NL forecasts.
I'll add small bets on the Phillies (+700 at FanDuel) and Twins (+800 at Caesars) to my current futures card; both provide actionable value while presenting a decent hedge against my current positions.
World Series Projections
Three teams — the Dodgers (+500 at Caesars), Orioles (+700 at FanDuel), and Twins (+2000 at Caesars) — offer value to win the World Series compared to my projected line.
Conversely, the composite projection from FanGraphs and PECOTA prefers the Astros (+500 at Caesars), Diamondbacks (+4000 at FanDuel), and Rangers (+1800 at FanDuel) as value bets before the playoffs start.
World Series Matchups
The same teams who pop up as potential pennant value bets (Dodgers and Phillies in the NL; Orioles and Twins in the AL) combine for the closest thing we'll get to potential value bets in the exact matchup market.
- Dodgers vs. Orioles (+950 at FanDuel)
- Dodgers vs. Twins (+2100)
- Phillies vs. Orioles (+2700)
- Phillies vs. Twins (+5500)
Of those four potential plays, only Phillies vs. Orioles (projected +2551) technically qualifies as an edge. However, that was the one I was most interested in betting, blindly, so we'll sprinkle that outcome for small stakes.
As of writing, only FanDuel and BetMGM have posted odds in this market. We'll circle back to this market closer to Tuesday to see if any other books post odds or potential edges relative to these projections.
Wild Card Round Projections
Below are my projected series prices for the Wild Card Round:
Essentially, my projections align with the pricing on three of the four matchups.
I show an actionable edge on the Twins (-105 at Caesars, -138 projected) up to -128, and would also consider betting on the Phillies at -185 or better if their price dropped.
Bets
- AL Pennant: Minnesota Twins (+800, 0.25u at Caesars)
- NL Pennant: Philadelphia Phillies (+700, 0.25u at FanDuel)
- Wild Card Series Price: Minnesota Twins (-105, 1u at Caesars); reduce risk above -117
- Wild Card Series Price: Philadelphia Phillies (-185, 0.5u at DraftKings)
- World Series Exact Matchup: Orioles vs. Phillies (+2700, 0.1u at FanDuel)
Value Recommendations
- AL Pennant: Baltimore Orioles (+285 at DraftKings)
- NL Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers (+225 at Caesars)
- World Series: Baltimore Orioles (+700 at FanDuel)
- World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers (+500 at Caesars)
- World Series: Minnesota Twins (+2000 at Caesars)
