MLB's Divisional Round continues after an exciting slate yesterday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through when it comes to MLB PrizePicks.
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Here’s how I'd approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
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Max Kepler Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Cristian Javier takes the mound for the Houston Astros and could be a good candidate to back against the Minnesota Twins.
It was a bit of an erratic campaign for Javier, who went 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. However, he ended the season in good form as the right-hander posted a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over his final four starts.
That success should continue against Minnesota, or at least Max Kepler. Through two career plate appearances against the right-hander, Kepler has failed to reach base.
Kepler has failed to surpass this figure in three of four playoff games thus far, and now faces a pitcher whom he's failed to reach base against.
Alex Kirilloff Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade the guy who hits two spots behind Kepler in the batting order — Alex Kirilloff.
Kirilloff has only faced Javier once, but, like Kepler, failed to reach base. Also like Kepler, Kirilloff has struggled this postseason. In fact, Kirilloff has yet to record a hit through four games.
Going back to Target Field likely won't help his cause as Kirilloff's splits drop by roughly 16% this season at home. He didn't qualify for official percentile rankings this year, but if he did, Kirilloff would rank in the bottom half of the league in xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, Chase%, Whiff%, K% and BB%.
Michael Brantley Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a member of the Astros as right-hander Sonny Gray takes the mound for Minnesota. Gray put together an exceptional campaign as he posted a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 32 starts.
Not only did he end the regular season in great form, but he also tossed five scoreless innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Gray is 3-2 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over his past eight starts and has allowed more than one earned run just once over that stretch.
That brings us to Michael Brantley, who, including the postseason, has only played 17 games after undergoing shoulder surgery in August 2022. Brantley has failed to surpass this number in 10 of those 17 outings.
Through 24 career plate appearances against Gray, Brantley owns a mere .200 xBA, a .215 xSLG and a .298 xwOBA.
