MLB's Divisional Round kicks off Saturday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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Here’s how I'd approach Saturday's MLB slate.
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Alex Bregman Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
After failing to crack a spot on the Wild Card roster, right-hander Bailey Ober gets the ball to start the Divisional Round for the Minnesota Twins.
Ober put together a strong campaign, going 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He hit a bit of a rough patch in August and was subsequently sent down to Triple-A.
Since coming back to the big leagues, Ober is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA through four starts. I would be shocked if we see any regression in the postseason as the right-hander ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Chase%, BB% and Hard-Hit%.
The first Houston hitter to fade is Alex Bregman, who failed to surpass this figure in nine of his final 13 regular season games. Over that stretch, Bregman posted a .167 BA, a .354 SLG and a .688 OPS.
These woes could continue against Ober, a pitcher whom Bregman is hitless against through three career plate appearances. That's a small sample size, but it's also worth noting that Bregman's splits drop by roughly 10% when playing at Minute Maid Park this year.
Kyle Tucker Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade the guy who hits directly behind Bregman in the batting order — Kyle Tucker.
Tucker's contact numbers took a slight dip to end the regular season as he posted a .238 BA over his final 17 games. Tucker's power numbers remained up, but that could be neutralized by Ober's ability to limit hard-hit baseballs.
Speaking of Ober, Tucker is just 1-5 against him in his career with one single and two strikeouts. His underlying metrics over those five at-bats are also poor (.191 xBA, .219 xSLG, .180 xwOBA).
Like Bregman, Tucker's splits also take a dip when playing at home this year, although by a much more substantial 25%. Tucker has also seen a 9% drop in performance when facing right-handed pitching this season.
Max Kepler Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a member of the Twins as right-hander Justin Verlander starts the series for Houston. Yes, Verlander has had some bumpy playoff performances over the past few years, but he is coming off yet another tremendous season.
Over 27 starts, Verlander went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He also ranked in the 68th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Chase% and BB%.
That brings us to Max Kepler, who was one of Minnesota's best hitters this year. With that said, he is a remarkable 1-for-23 with 10 strikeouts in his career against Verlander.
Kepler has never been able to figure Verlander out, and it definitely won't help that he is playing this game away from Target Field, a venue where his splits jumped by roughly 20% this season. If there were ever a spot to sell high on Kepler, this would be it.
