As we head toward Opening Day, I'm going to preview the MLB futures markets, including team futures, player awards and regular season stat leaders.
From a personal perspective, win total over/under are my favorite preseason markets to try to beat in any league. They also serve as a guide for teams that may provide value to win their division, make the playoffs, advance to the World Series or win a championship.
Still, there are things you should always keep in mind when surveying the odds in these markets:
- Books over-inflate their total win markets, which means that the total number of wins among the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during an MLB season (2,430).
- Similarly, books over-inflate their divisional odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in a division winning that division will exceed 100%.
- Additionally, books over-inflate their playoff odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in an individual league making the playoffs will exceed 600% (six teams in each league qualify).
- Finally, books also over-inflate their pennant and World Series markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all 30 MLB to potentially win the World Series will exceed 100%.
Moreover, tying up your money for several months at a relatively small expected value edge is naturally unappealing to many bettors. By placing these wagers, you're diminishing your accessible bankroll in the short term and providing the house with an interest-free loan for at least half a year. Make certain to exercise careful bankroll management when creating season-long futures portfolios.
I will update this post with any additional bets or significant projection alterations before opening day.
Before I update this article, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Click here to download the app, follow me, and get notifications when I place a bet.
Below are my 2024 win total projections, alongside projections from Clay Davenport, FanGraphs (including their Playoff Odds, ATC, The BAT X, and ZIPS), and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA.
First, I want to define two terms you might see below: "Public" refers to the average of the publicly available projections. In contrast, "Composite" refers to an average of the "Public" projection and my own projection.
For the next section only, however — regarding prediction accuracy — note that I used the market projection as the composite projection (since I didn't make my own win total projections at the time) in both 2018 and 2019.
Prediction Accuracy
Before we jump into the division-by-division breakdowns, I thought you might be interested in seeing how these projections have performed against win totals over a multi-year sample.
I analyzed these projection systems — and their final preseason projected win total — compared to the market total for each team and the actual wins for those teams.
I skipped 2020 due to the limited 60-game regional schedule and only analyzed projections and results from 2018-2019 and 2021-2023.
To reiterate, I utilized the average market projection instead of my own projection in 2018 and 2019.
Individually, all three public projection systems – and my own – would have struggled to defeat -110 odds in the betting market.
The real takeaway is the composite projection. While some of these systems have outlier opinions, taking an average of their assessment — relative to the win totals — is far more accurate than relying on any one prediction individually.
Taking the market average in 2019 and 2018 and splitting that with my own projection for the past three seasons has produced a 58.3% win rate across 150 possible bets.
While I want to do additional research to see how these systems would have performed on outlier predictions (i.e., win totals greater or less than a specific parameter relative to the projection; I use three wins or more as my boundary), it is still encouraging to see that their combined predictive power is far greater than the sum of their parts.
That was the intention from the outset.
AL East
UPDATE (3/24):
- After the Gerrit Cole injury news, the Yankees' average listed total dropped from 93.5 to 91.5 wins. My projected win total moved down by 1.3 games. Still, the public projections were more conservative — moving down one game without materially adjusting their futures projections. I don't see value in betting them to miss the playoffs below +300 at this point.
- Instead, I'd continue to bet the Rays Over to 85.5, to win the AL East, and to make the playoffs. Their updated divisional projection has improved from +559 to +366, their playoff projection has improved from -114 to -151. Tampa Bay also remains a World Series dark horse (all projections between 3.9-4.3%) and is worth a poke down at +3500 or better.
- Despite nearly a two-win improvement in the updated public projection, the composite projection still likes the Under on Baltimore at 90.5. I'd personally pass on the Under below 91.5.
- PECOTA doesn't think much of Boston's playoff chances (12.5%), but if you exclude that number, the remaining forecast puts their fair odds at +291 (+265 best). You can find as high as +320 on Boston.
New York Yankees
Despite adding Juan Soto, the Yankees still have a fragile, top-heavy roster in the deepest division in baseball. Aaron Judge has said the toe ligament injury which limited him to 106 games last season will need to be managed for the rest of his career, and Carlos Rodon's velocity remains down early in spring training. And if they were going to sign additional marquee-free agents — like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — I'd expect them to have done so by now.
PECOTA expects the Bombers to surpass 94 wins — six games clear of any other team in the division — but other public projections put their expectation around 88, creating a perceived edge against their win total Under 93.5 compared to a combined public projection of 89.5.
My projection (92) falls near the midpoint of the range of those public projections, and the combined composite projection (90.8) creates a more balanced target for analyzing all win totals. I'd probably want Under 94 or Under 94.5 to consider placing a win total bet at a 3 to 3.5 win difference or more, compared to my projection or the composite projection.
Unsurprisingly, since my projection is lower than their win total, I don't see value concerning the Yankees' odds of winning the AL East, the AL pennant or the World Series. However, there is a slight edge on their odds of missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
BetMGM has the Yankees at +340 (22.7% implied odds) to miss the playoffs, compared to projected odds of 24.7% (+305 implied) from FanGraphs and 34.4% (+191 implied) from ZIPS. PECOTA — which easily has the highest public projection on the Yankees — put their odds of missing the postseason at just 8.5% (+1077 implied).
While I'd want a better number to bet the Yankees' win total under, there's likely more value on their odds of missing the playoffs completely.
Toronto Blue Jays
I'm slightly optimistic about the Blue Jays (by one win), but the public projection is a bit more skeptical (range 83-88), and the composite projection says to pass on betting on this team.
If anything, I would bet their divisional odds (+475 at BetMGM), but there's another team I prefer in the East.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays had the best Pythagorean record in the American League last season, and if you flipped the result of every one-run contest, they would have cleared the division by 14 games.
While their starting rotation looks entirely different than at the start of last season (four of five starters hurt or traded), the Rays will continue to turn unheralded arms (like Ryan Pepiot) into stars — and may get Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen back for the stretch run. They have an underrated offensive core (Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe and Junior Caminero) with as much depth as ever, play elite defense and develop shutdown relievers.
I projected the Rays for 89 wins; public projections put them between 85 and 87, but I could make an argument that the Rays are the most consistently under-projected team in baseball. Over the past five full seasons, Tampa Bay has had an average preseason win total of 85.3 and has finished with an average of 94.2 wins:
Composite Projected Wins / Actual Wins
- 2018: 80.5 / 90
- 2019: 85.8 / 96
- 2021: 86.5 / 100
- 2022: 86.3 / 86
- 2023: 87.4 / 99
I'd recommend betting the Rays Over up to 84.5 if you're using the composite projection or 86 if you're using my projection.
I see just a three-win gap between the Yankees and the Rays — most similar to the FanGraphs' playoff odds (2.5 win differential), which has Tampa Bay at 23.9% (+318 implied odds) to win the division, 61.2% (-158 implied) to make the postseason and 4.4% (+2172 implied) to win its first championship.
The public projection takes a more conservative estimate but still thinks the Rays should be minus money to make the playoffs, +564 to win the AL East, and about 31-1 to win the World Series.
If you're betting the Rays win total Over, you should also be betting those correlated outcomes.
Baltimore Orioles
By run differential, Baltimore drastically overachieved (+7 in Pythagorean win differential), and would have finished with just 87 wins if you flipped the result of every one-run game.
Teams that excel in either stat tend to regress in the following season — let alone both — and the Orioles' bullpen, which ranked second in WAR and xFIP (3.94) last season, projects closer to mid-pack than top-tier in 2024.
Additionally, while the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes, spring injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means will re-allocate some innings to lesser pitchers — limiting the upside for this club despite incredible, young offensive depth.
After the Bradish injury, most books lowered their win total for Baltimore — except for one. I like the Orioles Under to 91; the composite projection would take them Under 90.5. All projections like them to go Under (range 84 to 90) this season.
Additionally, there's value in Baltimore to miss the playoffs (public projection +145; listed +180); however, my personal fair line is closer to the market odds, considering I'm higher on Baltimore than the public projection. And I prefer their offensive depth to the Yankees if I'm picking teams to potentially fall apart entirely.
With Montgomery and Snell still available — and a new owner taking over in Baltimore — I'd rather not bet the latter until closer to Opening Day.
Boston Red Sox
I'm slightly low on the Red Sox, while the public projections (range 79-82) are slightly higher than their win total. But the composite projection suggests taking a pass.
Even with public projections a bit more optimistic, they lean toward Boston missing the playoffs (public projection -369, listed -350).
Zerillo's AL East Futures
Played
- Baltimore Orioles, Under 91.5 (-105, 1u) at ESPN BET
- New York Yankees, Miss the Playoffs (+340, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- Tampa Bay Rays, Over 84 (-110, 1u) at Caesars
- Tampa Bay Rays, Make the Playoffs (+150, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win the AL East (+800, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win the World Series (+4500, 0.1u) at Caesars
Watching
- Boston Red Sox, Make the Playoffs (+320)
AL Central
UPDATE (3/24):
- The update views the Twins as a more formidable divisional favorite (projection improved from -121 to -144; playoff chances moved from -195 to -218). Though the championship projection hasn't moved much, I still view them as a solid longshot World Series investment at +3000 or better, and would consider taking plus money for Minnesota to win the AL Central.
- The futures forecast has also improved for Detroit (divisional projection improved from +823 to +603), but the Tigers remain a composite Under play at 80.5 or higher.
- Cleveland's consensus chances have declined (divisional projection moved from +234 to +388) after some spring pitching injuries. I'd pass on their futures and win total at this point.
- Chicago's listed total dropped by two wins following the Dylan Cease trade. My projection fell by 2.2 wins, but the public projection was much more conservative — and still likes the Over. The White Sox will continue to trade pieces off this roster, however, and I like them to finish with the fewest wins in MLB this season if you can find +800 or better.
Minnesota Twins
While both my projection and the public projection (range 85-89) create a composite that directly aligns with Minnesota's win total, there's value in this team to make a deep playoff run after winning its first postseason series in 21 years.
The Twins have high-end starting pitching, live arms in their bullpen and a potentially dangerous — albeit fragile — lineup.
PECOTA puts the Twins' World Series chances at 6.1% (+1538 implied), while FanGraphs has 3.6% (+2677 implied) and ZIPS is at 3.8% (+2531 implied). All are substantially more optimistic than their best available odds of +4000 (2.44% implied).
While I'm taking a shot against the Twins to win the division, I still like their odds of making the playoffs and posing a threat for the AL pennant if their key pieces survive the season.
Cleveland Guardians
The public projection likes the Guardians to win 81-85 games and surpass their win total, but I'd want Over 77.5 or better to place a bet compared to the composite projection.
At current odds, there's more value in betting Cleveland to win the AL Central (public projection +234) and to make the playoffs (public projection +144) at this stage. Even if I eliminate the most optimistic projection from that forecast, I still get projected odds of +326 and +174, respectively, compared to listed odds of +400 and +250.
Considering I am slightly high on Cleveland compared to its win total — and low on each of the other four teams — the Guardians are the clear standout value play in the division.
Detroit Tigers
Detroit's Under is the first consensus play we have discussed — surpassing a differential of 3.5 wins relative to my projection, the public projection and the composite projection. They also overachieved by five wins last year by run differential.
The Tigers added depth this offseason, acquiring Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller.
And I like a lot of players on this team. Riley Greene is a future All-Star, Kerry Carpenter is a delightful hitter to watch, Spencer Torkelson could progress to 40 home runs, I expect Colt Keith to be a solid player — and a potential Rookie of the Year candidate — and Tarik Skubal could compete for a Cy Young (if he's healthy).
Still, every projection system (range 75-79) likes Detroit to finish below .500 this season. Bet Under to 80.5.
Additionally, there's value in the Tigers missing the playoffs (projected -450, listed -200) if you're comfortable laying juice.
Kansas City Royals
My projection likes the Under on the Royals' win total just as much as I do the Under for the Tigers; however, the public consensus is much higher on Kansas City, which underachieved by eight wins last season and added about as much depth as the Tigers (Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, Austin Nola, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Kyle Wright).
Even though I am the low projector on this team, I'd want Under 75 or better to satisfy the composite.
Additionally, there is value on Kansas City to miss the playoffs (projected -1216, listed -550).
Chicago White Sox
After continually betting on the White Sox Unders, their win total finally aligns with my expectations this season.
The public projection is a bit more optimistic about this team (Range 66 to 67), and would recommend an Over 63 — but the composite projection says to pass.
If anything, I'd bet the White Sox to finish with the most losses, but they seem appropriately lined in that market — and there's another team I prefer which plays in a much more difficult division.
Zerillo's AL Central Futures
Played
- Cleveland Guardians, Win the AL Central (+400, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Cleveland Guardians, Make the Playoffs (+250, 0.3u) at BetMGM
- Detroit Tigers, Under 81.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Minnesota Twins, Win the World Series (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
Watching
- Minnesota Twins, Win the AL Central (+100)
For updated MLB odds on all 2024 futures at a variety of sportsbooks, be sure to visit and bookmark our MLB odds page.
AL West
UPDATE (3/24):
- The update was extremely friendly to Houston's futures odds. The public projections lean under on the Astros' win total but view their consensus divisional odds at -190 (previous -148), and every projection is above 60%.
- I had previously considered betting on the Mariners to win the West, but even the most aggressive projection (23.9% or +318 implied) falls short of their listed odds.
- Texas remains a consensus Under bet at 88.5 or higher, and you can continue to bet on the Rangers missing the playoffs (the updated projection moved from -107 to +110).
- Oakland remains a composite Over wager at 60.5 or better. And the public projection would take it all the way to 64.5. I have the most conservative projection (60.7) on Oakland by 3.8 games, and I still expect the A's to clear their listed total by three wins.
- The public projection still likes the Over for the Angels (to 73), but I align much more closely with their listed total and instead prefer them to finish in exactly fifth place in the AL West with the market so high on Oakland.
Houston Astros
While the projections are slightly low on Houston's win total, they generally see a five or six-win gap between the Astros and the second-best team in the AL-West (Seattle or Texas, depending upon the source).
As a result, the public projection sees value in Houston to win the AL West (projected -151, listed +140); however, my projected differential is just three games over second place and six games over third place — and my fair line is closer to listed odds.
Houston has made the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons. I wouldn't fault anyone for betting the Astros to win the World Series (projected +884, listed +1000) now; their odds have been +500, +400, +475, +2200, +205, +330 and +455 at the start of the playoffs over of the past five seasons.
I don't see actionable value on this team.
Texas Rangers
The reigning World Series champions fit the criteria for a consensus Under. Every projection (range 82-86) expects the Rangers to finish well below expectations, despite underachieving by six wins last season.
Texas will start the season without Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer. It should improve in the second half as those three arms return to the fold, and I would consider betting the Rangers' World Series or divisional futures closer to the All-Star break.
For now, bet the Rangers Under to 88.5, and bet them to miss the playoffs, too (public projection -105; listed +175).
Seattle Mariners
Among the contenders in this division, I am highest on Seattle due to their elite starting pitching depth. Still, the composite win total projection essentially aligns with the betting market, and I have difficulty justifying a wager on their division odds when the most optimistic projection (23% or +335 implied) falls short of listed odds (+315). Even as the high projector on the Mariners, my fair line is likely on point with the betting odds.
I'd make the same argument for their playoff odds (public projection -104; listed -150); my fair line is likely closer to -130. You can find Seattle to win the World Series as high as +2800 (Caesars), which aligns with the public projection and is probably the only wager I would consider at current prices.
Los Angeles Angels
Despite losing Shohei Ohtani, the public projection (range 74-79) loves the Angels to surpass last season's record. Those sources recommend their Over (to 73), but the composite projection would wait for 71.
Additionally, the public projection predicts the Angels will make the playoffs (projected +698, listed +1300) more often than the odds suggest.
Oakland Athletics
After losing 112 games last season, the public projection (range 63-71) loves the Athletics to bounce back in their likely final season in the Bay Area. Although I'm only slightly optimistic about the A's (projected 59 wins), the composite projection would recommend the Over up to 59. You can find as low as 56.5 — which I'm much more comfortable with.
Oakland played much better in the second half of 2023 (25-45; 57.8 win pace), and its pitching (5.17 xFIP; 30th in MLB) should be better in 2024.
Zerillo's AL West Futures
Played
- Los Angeles Angels, Exact Finishing Position: 5th (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Oakland Athletics, Over 55.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Texas Rangers, Under 89.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Texas Rangers, Miss the Playoffs (+175, 0.25u) at BetMGM
Watching
- Seattle Mariners, Win the AL West (+300)
NL East
UPDATE (3/24):
- Atlanta's futures odds improved in the update — the divisional projection moved from -545 to -895, and the World Series moved from +406 to +325. I'd take +500 or better on the latter, and the divisional odds (as low as -240) are juicy but intriguing.
- I would still consider an Under 90.5 on the Phillies if it popped up, but they are now a safer bet to make the playoffs (projection moved from -134 to -179).
- The Mets improved by 0.7 wins in the final update after adding J.D. Martinez to their lineup. I don't project value on this team, which may have the widest range of potential outcomes in 2024.
- The Marlins suffered several pitching injuries in the spring. My projection has moved down by more than three wins, and I now lean Under 77.5, after previously betting them to make the playoffs (projection declined from +216 to +264).
- Washington remains a consensus Under wager at 67 or better, with a projected range between 58.1 and 65 wins. The Nationals remain my favorite bet to finish with the fewest wins in baseball.
Atlanta Braves
While the public projection (range 95-101) likes the Under on the Braves' win total, it still shows value in their odds to win the NL East, make the playoffs and win the World Series.
The divisional and playoff odds are somewhat prohibitive; still, there is a significant edge between -537 (84.3% implied) projected and listed odds of -240 (70.6% implied).
I prefer to bet the Braves to win the World Series at this stage. Public projections put them as low as +475 (17.4% implied) and as high as +288 (25.8% implied); you can +650 (13.33% implied) at bet365. Atlanta was +250 at the start of the playoffs last season.
Philadelphia Phillies
The public projection (range 85-89) also likes the Under on Philadelphia's win total; however, I'd want at least Under 90.5 compared to the composite projection.
Additionally, there's slight value in the Phillies missing the playoffs (projected +134, listed +182). Still, I align much more closely with the betting market than the public projection market in terms of their fair odds, and the Phillies could still go out and add Blake Snell before Opening Day.
New York Mets
The Mets saw their win total drop after Kodai Senga's spring training injury news. While I'm lower on the Mets than on the Phillies, it's hard to justify betting -185 for New York to miss the playoffs (public projection -159), even if I'm less optimistic than the public projection (range 76-83). Pass.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins overachieved more than any team last season, finishing nine wins better than expected based on run differential. And if you flip the result of every one-run game, they would have finished 64-97, a 20-game difference.
Public projections still expect them to take a step forward compared to expected results from last season (range 77-81), but there's no value in the win total market.
Instead, I like the Marlins to make the playoffs (projected +216, listed +300), compared to projections as low as 29.3% (+241 implied) and as high as 34.3% (+192 implied).
Washington Nationals
The Nationals also overachieved by both run differential (+4 wins) and performance in one-run games (+7 wins) last season. Additionally, I project them as a worse team in 2024 than in 2023, and PECOTA (projected 61.4 wins in 2023, 57.8 in 2024) agrees. Davenport and FanGraphs have the exact preseason expectations for this team compared to last season (65-66 wins).
Regardless, all projections fall below Washington's listed win total, and I project the Nationals for the fewest wins in the National League and the second-fewest wins in baseball.
Washington's Under doesn't satisfy the public projection, but it is the most significant outlier compared to my projection. Bet the Under to 68.
Additionally, I like the Nationals to finish with the fewest wins in baseball in 2024, since they are fourth or fifth on the odds board, depending on the book. Take +1000 or better on that prop.
Zerillo's NL East Futures
Played
- Atlanta Braves, Win the World Series (+650, 1u) at bet365
- Miami Marlins, Make the Playoffs (+300, 0.25u) at Caesars
- Washington Nationals, Under 68.5 (-110, 1u) at Superbook
- Washington Nationals, Least Regular Season Wins (+1200, 0.25u) at Superbook
Watching
- Atlanta Braves, Win the NL East (-240)
- Philadelphia Phillies, Under 90.5
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NL Central
UPDATE (3/24):
- Despite the Devin Williams injury, Milwaukee's projections have remained stable, and the Brewers are still my favorite team to bet on in this division (Over to 78, Divisional Odds to +500).
- The Cardinals remain an Under wager compared to my projection at 84.5 or higher.
- Projections lean Under on the Cubs and all put their divisional chances between 23-27%. They are my favorite team on paper in this division, but I can't justify their divisional odds.
- Projections also lean Under for the Reds. They would take Under 82.5, and bet Cincinnati to miss the playoffs.
St. Louis Cardinals
There's only one team in the NL Central that I like more than the market, but I'm most pessimistic about the Cardinals, who worked to revamp their rotation (adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn) this offseason.
While the projection market aligns more closely with their listed odds, I would bet the Cardinals Under to 85. However, I'd prefer to bet the Under rather than the Cardinals to miss the playoffs (public projection +121, listed -105) — there's a more significant edge in the win total market.
Chicago Cubs
The public projection market (range 81 to 84) aligns pretty closely with my assessment of the Cubs. We're both a bit low on the North Siders, who underachieved by as much as seven wins last season and could have easily won the NL Central.
I'd want Under 85.5 or better to consider playing the Cubs' under. Additionally, there's probably present value in Chicago missing the playoffs (projected -173, listed +110). Still, this organization will continue to add pieces as it positions itself to return to the postseason.
Milwaukee Brewers
Similar to the Rays, the Brewers never rebuild — they only reload. And despite a potentially wonky starting rotation, Milwaukee is the projected top defensive team in the league and has the best bullpen baseball. The Brewers should continue to excel at run prevention, even if they deploy their pitchers a bit more unorthodox than other teams.
I would bet the Brewers' Over to 79 — at nearly a four-win differential compared to my projection and nearly a three-win differential compared to the composite projection.
Additionally, even the public projection (range 79-81) sees value in Milwaukee to make the playoffs (projected +214) and to win the NL Central (projected +456), with the most optimistic forecasts sitting at +185 and +388, respectively. And I'm more optimistic about the Brewers than the public projection market.
Considering the potential that their division-mates continue to add, I will only play Milwaukee's Over and divisional odds for now, but may add the playoff bet closer to Opening Day.
Cincinnati Reds
The public and composite projections lean Under on the Reds for 2024. Still, they have a lot of young talent that may be under-projected.
I'd need at least 83.5 or 84 to bet the Under on Cincinnati's win total. You can consider betting them to miss the playoffs (projected -275, listed -175).
Pittsburgh Pirates
Both my projection and the public projection slightly lean under, but the Pirates are a clear pass from a betting perspective.
Zerillo's NL Central Futures
Played
- Milwaukee Brewers, Over 75.5 (-110, 1u) at ESPN BET
- Milwaukee Brewers, Win the NL Central (+1000, 0.25u) at Superbook
- St. Louis Cardinals, Under 85.5 (-105, 0.5u) at ESPN BET
Watching
- Cincinnati Reds, Miss the Playoffs (-175)
- Milwaukee Brewers, Make the Playoffs (+350)
NL West
UPDATE (3/24):
- Like Atlanta, the updated projections provided upgraded futures projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers (the Divisional projection moved from -412 to -633 and the World Series from +484 to +396). Still, the Composite projection would bet Under 104, and the public projection would take Under 102.
- Both the Giants (Matt Chapman and Blake Snell) and Padres (Dylan Cease) made significant additions since the initial projection. Of the pair, San Francisco has gained more ground toward making the playoffs, and I'd add more to our "make the playoffs" position on San Francisco at +145 or better.
- The Rockies are a composite Over wager at 59 or better; however, I'd have difficulty pulling the trigger, as four teams in their division are all projected to go .500 or better.
Los Angeles Dodgers
By the public projections (range 93-102), the Dodgers are the most over-valued regular season team heading into the 2024 season. The public projection would take the Under to around 100.5 (peak projection 101.4); the composite projection would demand Under 104 or better.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The public projection thinks Arizona can upset the division (listed at +1000 on FanDuel); however, I'm about two wins lower than that range (84-86), and the composite projection recommends a pass.
San Francisco Giants
Public projections think that the Giants can snag a wild-card spot this season between 33% (+203 implied odds) and 41% (+143 implied odds) of the time, leaving enough of an edge at +230 (30.3% implied) to take a tiny stab in that market.
San Diego Padres
The Padres underachieved more than any team last season, falling 10 wins short of their Pythagorean record. If you flip the result of every one-run game, San Diego finishes 96-66 (a 14-win differential) and potentially goes on a playoff run.
Public projections (range 77-81) lean Under on this club for 2024. The organization dealt with cash flow issues late last season and may look to unload pieces — including Ha Seong Kim — if they aren't in the hunt in July.
From a betting perspective, I'd pass on the Padres. However, their odds to make the playoffs (projected +230, listed +220) could be intriguing.
Colorado Rockies
Like the Athletics, the public projection likes the Over for the Rockies; although not to the same degree.
I'd need Over 59.5 or better to play Colorado compared to the consensus projection.
Zerillo's NL West Futures
Played
- Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 104.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+160, 0.25u) at Caesars
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+230, 0.25u) at Superbook
Watching
- Colorado Rockies, Over 59.5
Zerillo's Current MLB Futures Card
MLB Win Totals
- Baltimore Orioles, Under 91.5 (-105, 1u) at ESPN BET
- Detroit Tigers, Under 81.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 104.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- Milwaukee Brewers, Over 75.5 (-110, 1u) at ESPN BET
- Oakland Athletics, Over 55.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Superbook
- St. Louis Cardinals, Under 85.5 (-105, 0.5u) at ESPN BET
- Tampa Bay Rays, Over 84 (-110, 1u) at Caesars
- Texas Rangers, Under 89.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Washington Nationals, Under 68.5 (-110, 1u) at Superbook
- Washington Nationals, Least Regular Season Wins (+1200, 0.25u) at Superbook
Divisional Futures
- Cleveland Guardians, Win the AL Central (+400, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Los Angeles Angels, Exact Finishing Position: 5th (+900, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Milwaukee Brewers, Win the NL Central (+1000, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win AL East (+800, 0.25u) at Superbook
Playoff Futures
- Cleveland Guardians, Make the Playoffs (+250, 0.3u) at BetMGM
- Miami Marlins, Make the Playoffs (+300, 0.25u) at Caesars
- New York Yankees, Miss the Playoffs (+340, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+160, 0.25u) at Caesars
- San Francisco Giants, Make the Playoffs (+230, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Make the Playoffs (+150, 0.25u) at Superbook
- Texas Rangers, Miss the Playoffs (+175, 0.25u) at BetMGM
World Series Futures
- Atlanta Braves, Win the World Series (+650, 1u) at bet365
- Minnesota Twins, Win the World Series (+4000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Tampa Bay Rays, Win the World Series (+4500, 0.1u) at Caesars
Bets I'm Watching
- Atlanta Braves, Win the NL East (-240)
- Baltimore Orioles, Miss the Playoffs (+180)
- Boston Red Sox, Miss the Playoffs (-350)
- Chicago Cubs, Miss the Playoffs (+110)
- Chicago Cubs, Under 85.5
- Cincinnati Reds, Miss the Playoffs (-175)
- Cincinnati Reds, Under 84
- Cleveland Guardians, Over 77.5
- Colorado Rockies, Over 59.5
- Detroit Tigers, Miss the Playoffs (-200)
- Kansas City Royals, Miss the Playoffs (-550)
- Kansas City Royals, Under 75
- Los Angeles Angels, Over 71
- Los Angeles Angels, Make the Playoffs (+1300)
- Milwaukee Brewers, Make the Playoffs (+350
- New York Yankees, Under 94
- Philadelphia Phillies, Under 90.5
- Philadelphia Phillies, Miss the Playoffs (+182)
- San Diego Padres, Make the Playoffs (+220)
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