As we head toward Opening Day, I'm going to preview the MLB futures markets, including team futures, player awards and regular season stat leaders.
This article is Part III in my preseason futures series, covering regular season stat leaders. Generally, these markets encompass wins, strikeouts and saves for pitchers and home runs, RBI, steals and hits for batters.
Below, I’ll provide my projections for these statistics, guide you through each category and tell you where I’m placing my money for the 2024 season.
As a reminder, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Click here to download the app, follow me, and get notifications when I place a bet.
For updated MLB odds on all 2024 futures at a variety of sportsbooks, be sure to visit and bookmark our MLB odds page.
MLB Stat Leaders Best Bets
Most Wins
Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their projected quality starts and listed odds at Superbook — which typically has the best available odds for any player in this market:
In any stat leader market, I’m looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren’t correctly bucketed on the odds board relative to their projection peers.
For example, Chris Bassitt (+8000) immediately stands out on the list above. If you re-lined the leaderboard based on these projections, you'd expect to find +3500 or +4000 on Bassitt, not double the price. He has 31 wins over the past two seasons, tied with Justin Verlander for the most in MLB over that span.
I haven't bet on Bassitt yet, but I would at that price point.
Typically, I limit my stat leader selections to about five or six bets per category – and the odds for my preferred wins leaders have moved.
With the second-most projected wins, Framber Valdez was an obvious selection at 30-1. Still, I'd make his fair line closer to +2000, and I'm less inclined to bet him at current odds.
Similarly, Pablo Lopez and George Kirby were easy selections at +6000 from the 12-win tier, but I don't like either bet below +3500.
I'd set the same price target on Logan Webb (opened +5000) or Zach Eflin (opened 100-1), whose prices have halved.
Aside from Bassist, Eduardo Rodriguez (+8000) is the only pitcher I'd consider adding in this category.
While wins leader isn't as widely available as other markets, always shop around for the best price.
Most Wins Bets
- Zach Eflin (+10000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Pablo Lopez (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Framber Valdez (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Logan Webb (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
Most Strikeouts
Here are my projected pitching strikeout leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at ESPN BET:
It's difficult to bet against Spencer Strider in this market. The righty posted a ridiculous 36.8% strikeout rate in 2023 — the same as Josh Hader and 5.3% higher than the closest qualified starter (Blake Snell).
Among starters who tossed 100 innings, Tyler Glasnow was still 3.4% below Strider, who cleared the 2023 field by 44 strikeouts and projects for a similarly wide margin of victory in 2024. Strider added a curveball to his mix and can go up another level, too.
So long as he avoids the IL and tosses 170 innings or more (186 2/3 in 2023), Strider run away with this category.
If I'm taking shots against Strider, I'd want a player who projects for a similar strikeout rate but with the upside to surpass 180 innings. Additionally, I'd typically want a better price on their strikeout leader prop than you can find on their Cy Young odds.
For example, I can get a better price on Glasnow and Freddy Peralta (MLB-best 36.3% K-rate in the second half of 2023) to win the NL Cy Young than you'll find for the regular season strikeout leader; and I think both pitchers are worth betting on in the awards market rather than as stat leaders — especially given the health concerns for both pitchers that can harm counting stats but preserve ratios.
Conversely, due to his home park and home run issue, Hunter Greene (30.5% K-rate in 2023, eighth among starters with 100+ innings) isn't as viable for individual hardware, but he's in an elite strikeout rate tier with Glasnow and Snell, just behind Strider. If Greene surpasses 180 innings for the first time, he's within reach of the lead.
I also like Pablo Lopez to continue his 2023 form (234 strikeouts, tied for third in MLB) but at longer odds than the players he finished near.
The only longshot I like is Nick Pivetta, who finally found an appropriate pitch mix while posting dominant numbers (2.80 xFIP and a 35.4% strikeout rate, second in MLB) over the second half of 2023.
If Pivetta matches that second-half strikeout rate with his 2022 workload (179 2/3 innings, 773 batters faced), he'd project for 274 strikeouts.
Most Strikeouts Bets
- Hunter Greene (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
- Pablo Lopez (+2500, 0.1u) at ESPN BET
- Nick Pivetta (+10000, 0.02u) at BetMGM
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Most Saves
Here are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
Given the randomness and variance when it comes to saves, I avoid players who may share the role (like Josh Hader with Ryan Pressly, or Raisel Iglesias, with A.J. Minter) or are on teams projected for sub. 500 records (like Edwin Diaz, David Bednar and Kenley Jansen). I don't take anything below +1500.
That leaves Jordan Romano, who struggled with a back issue last season, Devin Williams and his Airbender, and my favorite pitcher of the trio: Jhoan Duran.
I'd keep an eye on Romano's back — and velocity — throughout spring training.
I like the Brewers more than the betting market, so Williams is an easy, correlated bet to place. He ranked sixth in reliever xFIP last season.
Only two returning closers, Duran and Tanner Scott, had superior indicators. And after working as a hybrid closer and fireman in 2022, Duran operated exclusively as the Twins' closer — while pitching shorter stints — during the second half of 2023.
Most Saves Bets
- Jhoan Duran (+2000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Jordan Romano (+2300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Devin Williams (+1750, 0.1u) at Caesars
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Most Hits
Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
Note that this is a curated leaderboard. I left off players projected for fewer than 0.25 hits per plate appearance.
Luis Arraez has been a flagship player for trusting this process across all categories. He continually projects atop the field on a per-plate-appearance basis, and firing hits leader bets at +2200 (in 2023) and +5000 (in 2022) were justifiable.
Arraez ran out of steam in the second half of 2023 and struggled with an ankle injury after batting .390 through June. He's not the best athlete or defender, may have durability concerns going forward given his leg injuries and occasionally sits against lefties,. I can't take anything below +1500 on La Regadera.
I mentioned Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. in my player awards article, and if you're betting either to take home hardware, there is some correlation in the hits leader market at a better price.
The pair led all American League players in second-half WAR, but Rodriguez also ranked fourth (103) and Witt seventh (97) in hits over the same span; Acuna and Freddie Freeman (108) paced the league in a great MVP race.
Take either Rodriguez or Witt down to +2000.
Michael Harris II ranked 10th in MLB in total hits (94) over the same span but ranked sixth in hits per plate appearance since he hits lower in the lineup than other players listed here.
If Acuna misses time, Harris will likely slot into the leadoff spot for Atlanta — and this longshot ticket would be live.
I'd take Harris or newcomer Jung Hoo Lee at +5000 or better.
Lee owns a career .340 average in the KBO with a dominant 1.92 walk-to-strikeout ratio over the past three seasons. His strikeout rate over the past three years is 5.9% — similar to what Arraez (5%) posted last season — but Lee walked a bit more frequently (11.3% vs. 5.7% for Arraez).
Lee missed the final three months of 2023 after season-ending ankle surgery before signing a six-year, $113 million deal with the Giants. I'm unsure if he'll play enough this season to justify a stat leader bet.
Still, I'd rather have a hits leader ticket on Lee at long odds than a Rookie of the Year ticket at +900 against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga and potentially Paul Skenes.
Most Hits Bets
- Julio Rodriguez (+3100, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+3000, 0.07u) at Parx
- Jung Hoo Lee (+5500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Michael Harris II (+10000, 0.03u) at FanDuel
Most RBI
Here are my projected RBI leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
The RBI leader has averaged between 0.18 and 0.22 RBIs per plate appearance in the past six seasons. Matt Olson finished at 0.193 in 2023.
Note that this is a curated leaderboard. I left off players projected for fewer than 0.15 RBIs per plate appearance.
Sometimes the value leaps off the page and you don't have to dig too hard. Notice anything with Kyle Schwarber relative to the other players projected for 100+ RBI?
Schwarber finished with 104 RBI last season (11th most in MLB) despite batting .197 out of the leadoff spot for Philadelphia. Considering his current lineup spot, the ceiling is capped for now. Still, there's always a possibility that the Phillies will re-juggle their lineup at some point and present their best home run hitter with more runners in scoring position.
I like Teoscar Hernandez at longshot odds for similar reasons. He's slated to bat seventh in the Dodgers' lineup, but could move to the heart of the order against southpaws or when Will Smith takes a day off in order to to break up the Dodgers' left-handed bats (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jason Heyward, Gavin Lux).
Kyle Tucker's projections are selling him short. He knocked in 107 and 112 runs the past two seasons, mostly batting in the No. 6 spot in the order. New manager Joe Espada is moving his best hitter, Yordan Alvarez, to the No. 2 spot, and inserting Tucker as the cleanup hitter; leading to as many as 20-25 additional RBI for Tucker over the course of a full season. He's the best bet in this category.
Taking a shot on Acuna at long odds is essentially betting on a Triple Crown from the best player in baseball. And unlike Schwarber, he's never going to move out of the leadoff spot.
I also wanted shares of Rafael Devers and Fernando Tatis Jr. at +2500 or better. I don't think we've seen the peak offensive season from either hitter, and this category seemed the best way to speculate on their upside. Like Schwarber, Tatis is hitting out of the leadoff spot but could move down in the order (personally, I'd bat Ha-Seong Kim in front of Tatis).
Most Runs Batted In Bets
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+6500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Rafael Devers (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Teoscar Hernandez (+12500, 0.02u) at Caesars
- Austin Riley (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Schwarber (+12000, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Kyle Tucker (+2800, 0.1u) at DraftKings
Most Stolen Bases
Here are my projected stolen base, or SB leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
In the past six seasons, the stolen bases leader has averaged between .063 and 0.1 steals per plate appearance. Ronald Acuna Jr. finished at .099 in 2023.
Note that this is a curated leaderboard. I left off players projected for fewer than 0.05 steals per plate appearance or 25 steals.
Whole I understand the skepticism concerning his plate skills, I do think the projections are underselling the stolen base upside for Elly De La Cruz, who tied with Bobby Witt Jr. atop the sprint speed leaderboard (30.5 ft/s) in 2023. De La Cruz swiped 35 bags on 43 attempts in 427 plate appearances in his rookie campaign, and every projection system calls for 550 plate appearances or more in 2024 alongside an improved on-base percentage. Yet, none of those systems expect him to steal more than 39 bases.
Cincinnati stole more aggressively than any other team last season (238 attempts; 28 more attempts than any other club), and I'd put De La Cruz's projection closer to 50 steals — with an upside of 70 steals — in 2024. I'm OK taking Witt at the same price (+1000 or better); the pair tied for fourth with 26 steals in the second half.
Julio Rodriguez and Nico Hoerner are my preferred long shots in this category. Rodriguez ranked 22nd in sprint speed (29.6 ft/s), while Hoerner was 121st (28.5 ft/s) last season, but both have tremendous baserunning instincts and could surpass 40 steals in 2024. I'd want +3000 or better on either player.
My main concern with Rodriguez is his power. When he peaked in the final two months (15 HR, .603 SLG), he only stole 13 bags compared to 32 extra-base hits.
Most Stolen Bases Bets
- Elly De La Cruz (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Julio Rodriguez (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
Most Home Runs
Here are my projected home run leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook, which generally has the best odds for the HR Leader market:
In the past six seasons, the home run leader has averaged between .07 and .09 home runs per plate appearance. Matt Olson finished at .075 in 2023.
Note that this is a curated leaderboard. I left off players projected for fewer than .05 home runs plate appearance.
Rather than show home runs per plate appearance (HR/PA), I included that data point in a composite ranking — a weighted average of all hitters by the following power indicators: total projected home runs, projected HR/PA, maximum exit velocity and barrel rate.
Yordan Alvarez is my preferred bet at +1200 or better in this category. He projects as a top-five home run hitter by every projection system and paced closer to 45 homers last season on either side of a knee issue that tanked the middle of his campaign (9 HR across 38 games in June, July and August). Alvarez raised his flyball rate by six percent last year compared to his career average and is still in his prime at age 26, even though he seems older. There's a 50+ home run season — if not a Triple Crown year — within his bat. I'll keep betting on the skills and injury luck to mesh for six months.
Maximum Exit Velocity (Max EV) is my favorite indicator for power upside, and nobody hit the ball harder in 2023 than Ronald Acuna Jr. (Max EV 121.2 mph) — well above home run leader Matt Olson (118.6) and Shohei Ohtani (118.6). Acuna underperformed his expected metrics, with a .356 expected batting average (.337 actual), but it's his power to me that is the most underrated aspect of his game. I wouldn't bat an eye if Acuna slugged 50 homers in 2024 — he needs to bump his flyball rate (30.4% in 2023) closer to his career average (36.4%).
I also like Acuna's teammate, Austin Riley, to continue progressing in 2024 after a dominant second half (.968 OPS, 153 wRC+ and 21 homers in 321 plate appearances), where his flyball rate jumped from 37.7% to 43.5%. He's projected with players in the +2000 to +2500 tier, and I like him to +3000 — but you can find as high as +5000.
Corey Seager and Mike Trout have health and playing time concerns; I'm happy to skip both players. Rafael Devers has a high floor but a low ceiling for home runs given right field at Fenway (-1% home runs for left-handed hitter vs. an average park).
Adolis Garcia and Jorge Soler are my preferred long shots at +5000 or better.
Garcia has bulked up in Texas, and his Max EV has steadily risen (from 112.2 mph to 113 mph and 115.1 mph last season) in his early 30s. If he continues to progress — however unlikely at age 31 — Garcia could be sitting on a 45+ home run season. Soler led the league in home runs in 2019 (115.7 mph Max EV) and can return to 40+ home runs if he rediscovers his Max EV from 2021-2022 (117.9 mph).
Lastly, I'll make a donation with Triston Casas, who is probably a year away from seriously contending in this category. Boston's 24-year-old first baseman shows solid patience and power indicators. I anticipate a 35-HR campaign in 2024 — with a 115 mph Max EV (110.5 mph in 2022; 113.2 mph in 2023) — and the potential for 50 home runs at his career peak.
Most Home Runs Bets
- Yordan Alvarez (+1800, 0.35u) at Superbook
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+2200, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Triston Casas (+18000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
- Adolis Garcia (+8000, 0.05u) at BetMGM
- Austin Riley (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365
- Jorge Soler (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
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Zerillo’s 2024 MLB Stat Leader Futures
Most Hits
- Julio Rodriguez (+3100, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+3000, 0.07u) at Parx
- Jung Hoo Lee (+5500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Michael Harris II (+10000, 0.03u) at FanDuel
Most Home Runs
- Yordan Alvarez (+1800, 0.35u) at Superbook
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+2200, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Triston Casas (+18000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
- Adolis Garcia (+8000, 0.05u) at BetMGM
- Austin Riley (+5000, 0.1u) at Bet365
- Jorge Soler (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
Most Runs Batted In
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+6500, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Rafael Devers (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Teoscar Hernandez (+12500, 0.02u) at Caesars
- Austin Riley (+1600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Schwarber (+12000, 0.04u) at FanDuel
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+3000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Kyle Tucker (+2800, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Kyle Tucker (+2500, 0.05u) at BetRivers
Most Saves
- Jhoan Duran (+2000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Jordan Romano (+2300, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Devin Williams (+1750, 0.1u) at Caesars
Most Stolen Bases
- Elly de La Cruz (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Julio Rodriguez (+3500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
Most Strikeouts
- Hunter Greene (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
- Pablo Lopez (+2500, 0.1u) at ESPNBet
- Nick Pivetta (+10000, 0.02u) at BetMGM
Most Wins
- Zach Eflin (+10000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- George Kirby (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Pablo Lopez (+6000, 0.05u) at Superbook
- Framber Valdez (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
- Logan Webb (+5000, 0.05u) at Superbook
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