As Opening Day nears, I'll preview and make 2025 MLB predictions for various markets, including team futures (win total over/unders, playoffs, World Series), player awards, and regular-season stat leaders.
From a personal perspective, MLB win total over/unders are my favorite preseason markets to try to beat. They also serve as a guide for teams that may provide value to win their division, make the playoffs, advance to the World Series or win a championship.
There are four important things you should always keep in mind when surveying MLB futures odds in these markets:
- Books overinflate total win markets, which means that the total number of wins among the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during the MLB season (2,430).
- Similarly, books overinflate their divisional odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in a division winning that division will exceed 100%.
- Additionally, books overinflate their playoff odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in an individual league making the playoffs will exceed 600% (six teams in each league qualify).
- Finally, books also overinflate their pennant and World Series markets, meaning the combined probability—as indicated by the implied odds—of all 30 MLB teams potentially winning the World Series will exceed 100%.
Moreover, tying up your money for several months at a relatively small expected value edge is naturally unappealing to many bettors. By placing these wagers, you're diminishing your accessible bankroll in the short term and providing the house with an interest-free loan for at least half a year. Make certain to exercise careful bankroll management when creating season-long futures portfolios.
I will update this post with any additional bets or significant projection alterations before Opening Day. And before I update this article, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Download the app, follow me and get notifications when I place a bet.
Below are my 2025 MLB win total projections, alongside publicly available projections from FanGraphs (including their Playoff Odds, ATC – provided by Ariel Cohen, The BAT – provided by Derek Carty, and OOPSY – provided by Jordan Rosenblum), Clay Davenport, and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA.
First, I want to define two terms you will see in the tables below:
- "Public" refers to the average of those above publicly available projections.
- In contrast, "Composite" refers to an average (50/50) of the "Public" projection and my projection.
Since 2018 (excluding the 2020 pandemic-shortened season), the composite projection has produced a 58.9% win rate (99-69-12) across 180 possible win total bets, compared to 52.2% across individual public systems.
Specific systems may perform significantly better on outlier predictions (i.e., win totals greater or less than a specific parameter relative to the projection; I use three wins as my boundary), but it is still encouraging to see that their combined predictive power is far greater than the sum of their parts.
AL East Win Total Projections
New York Yankees
I typically only consider betting win totals where there's at least a three-win gap (and typically 3.5) between the market odds and my projection. I also generally prefer to see alignment with the composite projection too.
Every projection system for 2025 aligns on the Yankees as a sound "Under" wager, at 92 wins or higher, compared to a peak public projection of 89 (PECOTA), my projection at 88.6, an average public projection of 87.4, and a composite projection of 88, which would recommend an Under down to 91.5 or 91.
Moreover, the Yankees aren't as safe to return to the playoffs as you might expect, with a composite projection of +234 (29.9%) to miss the playoffs, compared to market odds as high as +345 (22.5% implied).
The Yankees' roster is highly injury prone, and the organization lacks the minor-league depth to supplement the lost playing time of their stars. Additionally, the AL East is the most competitive division in baseball; the average public projection has four of the five clubs finishing over .500, with the Blue Jays (80.9 wins) on the cusp and capable of going from worst to first.
I prefer the win total under and I'd sprinkle the Yankees to miss the playoffs at +300 (25% implied) or better.
Baltimore Orioles
I'm toward the higher end of the market — more in alignment with PECOTA (88.6 wins) than the remaining projections (average of 83.5 wins) — for the Orioles this season.
I project value on the Orioles to make the playoffs (projected -221, listed -175) and to win the AL East (projected+181, listed +325). If they do win the division, they will likely get a first-round bye (+360 at DraftKings).
Only PECOTA agrees with my playoff and divisional assessment (projected -253 and +180) on Baltimore; the remaining projections have them at +120 and +513, respectively. Still, blending my projections and the public projections into a composite number gives me an actionable figure on Baltimore's divisional price, which you can bet down to +275.
Boston Red Sox
Boston's win total has moved from 84.5 to 86.5 after a productive offseason. They added Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman to a young core that has two of the top AL rookie of the Year candidates. PECOTA likes Boston's under (projected 79.8 wins), but public projections otherwise align with the betting market.
The projection market shows a wide range of expected outcomes for the Red Sox; the BAT has Boston as the best team in the AL East at 68.8% to make the playoffs (-221 implied) and nearly 36% (+179 implied) to win the division compared to PECOTA at 22.4% (+334) and 5% (+1900), respectively.
The composite projection likes their odds to miss the postseason (projected -116, listed +110), while the public projection — even with that 68.8% figure baked in — stands at a near pick'em (-102).
I added an AL Pennant ticket on this club prior to the Alex Bregman signing but it's Under/Miss or pass on Boston's team futures at the current numbers.
Tampa Bay Rays
I missed out on betting Rays over 79.5 wins at the open and would pass at current numbers, but I like their chances to make the playoffs —and make a deep run — a bit more than the odds suggest.
I projected their playoff odds at +181 (35.6% implied) — slightly worse than the composite projection — but still show an edge relative to the best available odds at +230 (30.3% implied) and would take that down to around +200.
The public projection market also likes their chances of making a deep run, setting their World Series odds at +4405 (+6000 listed); I sprinkled their AL Pennant odds at +3000 and would take +2000 or better.
I'm not personally as fond of their divisional chances (projected +1463), but the public projection (projected +684) would recommend a long-shot AL East stab (listed +1200) if you like this club.
Toronto Blue Jays
I bet the Blue Jays Over the same day that PECOTA was released; it turned out we had the two highest projections in the market for Toronto.
I don't particularly like this roster as I see lots of downside risk to the Under if they start slow and consider trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who is a free agent next offseason — but every projection system sees the Blue Jays clearing at least 79 wins in 2025, with a peak of 84.6 from PECOTA.
Given my projection (83.1), I'd generally recommend 79.5 as a cutoff, but after factoring in the public projection, the composite would stop at 78.5.
There is correlated value on the Blue Jays to make the playoffs (my projection +192, listed +280) and to win the World Series (projected +5425, listed +6000) or AL Pennant, but I much prefer the pitching of the Rays and Red Sox to make a potential playoff run in October.
AL East Futures Bets
- Orioles, Win the AL East (+325 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +275
- Red Sox, Win the AL Pennant (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1200
- Yankees, Under 93.5 Wins (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet & (-110, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to 92
- Yankees, Miss the Playoffs (+345, 0.1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +300
- Rays, Make the Playoffs (+230, 0.25u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +200
- Rays, Win the AL Pennant (+3000, 0.1u) at ESPNBet; bet to +2000
- Blue Jays, Over 77.5 Wins (-110, 1u) at DraftKings
AL Central Win Total Projections
Minnesota Twins
I like the Twins' organizational depth much more than I did last season — when injuries crippled their campaign — and I view them as one of the two leading contenders in the AL Central for 2025.
While the composite projection leans Under for Minnesota, even the least optimistic projection (36.4%, +175 implied) views them as a value bet in the divisional market, with PECOTA as high as 56.5% (-130 implied) to win the Central. However, I projected value on a second AL Central team that is trying a bit harder to improve.
That said, the projection market views the Twins as a relatively strong playoff bet at plus money. The lowest projection is 50.2%, and the consensus is 58%, compared to odds as high as +120 (45.5% implied) marketwide. I'd take -110 or better.
While there's correlated value on Minnesota to win the World Series (projected +1896, listed +3500) or to win the AL Pennant, I can't invest too heavily in a club that has refused to invest in its roster.
Detroit Tigers
I should note that my divisional projection for the Tigers (31.4%, +218) is the highest in the market, but if you eliminate PECOTA (9.6%) from the public sample, the remaining public projection (+251) aligns with my current price target (+250; +260 best available).
I show correlated value on the Tigers to make the playoffs (my projection -124, composite projection +110, listed +120) and to win the American League (bet to +1200) or World Series (projected +1941, listed +3500).
Detroit played at a 97-win pace in the second half once AJ Hinch optimized this roster and began aggressively deploying his bullpen. The Tigers' pitching staff should outperform projections again in 2025.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals have a top-heavy roster with zero prospect depth to supplement their major league team in 2025; if they sustain any injuries to key players (Bobby Witt Jr. or Cole Ragans) or if Salvador Perez declines in his mid-30s, there's a significant downside to this team.
Every projection likes the Royals to go Under their win total (peak of 81.8 from ATC); I'd recommend the Under to 83 (projected 79.6), but the composite projection would stop at 83.5.
Each projection sees them missing the playoffs nearly 60% of the time or more (low of 59.3% from FanGraphs), compared to listed odds of -135 (57.5% implied), which is my personal cutoff point.
Cleveland Guardians
Every projection likes the Guardians to go under their win total (peak of 82 from Davenport); I'd recommend the Under to 82 since my projection is in direct alignment with the public.
Additionally, every projection sees the Guardians as an excellent bet to miss the playoffs; PECOTA gives them the best chance, at 22.7% (+341), and I'd bet them to miss the playoffs up to -175, if not higher.
Their lineup should suffer after trading Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, and their bullpen — including Emmanuel Clase, who struggled in October — could burn out after strenuous usage in 2024.
Chicago White Sox
I'm the low man (projected 53.1 wins) for the White Sox in 2025; given their roster, even a 12-win improvement over last season would seem miraculous.
Every public projection has Chicago winning at least 60 games, with a high of 65.8 from The BAT. Their win total opened at 51.5 and has moved to 53.5, but I'm happy to sit this one out.
If the White Sox don't surpass 50 wins, we will likely lose at least one, if not both, of our Guardians and Royals positions.
AL Central Futures Bets
- Guardians, Miss the Playoffs (-130, 0.25u) at BetMGM & (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -175
- Guardians, Under 83.5 Wins (-120, 0.5u) at ESPNBet; bet to 82
- Tigers, Win the AL Central (+275, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +250
- Tigers, Win the AL Pennant (+1300, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1200
- Royals, Miss the Playoffs (-135, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -135
- Royals, Under 83.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to 83.5
- Twins, Make the Playoffs (+120, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -110
AL West Win Total Projections
Houston Astros
After trading Kyle Tucker and losing Alex Bregman in free agency, the Astros offense will look a lot different in 2025. Adding Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker should replace a good portion of what they lost, but their rotation isn't as deep as it has been in years past, and their organizational depth looks very shallow for 2025.
I align with their odds across the market, but downside projections from The BAT (82.9 wins, projected 44% playoffs) and ATC (83.8 wins, 51.3% playoffs) view the Astros as a possible bet to go under their win total and miss the playoffs (listed +145) this season.
Texas Rangers
I projected the Rangers to finish atop the AL West this season, but I'm not nearly as high on them as PECOTA (90.4 wins, 50.6% division, 81.2% playoffs), who view Texas as an exceptional value bet in all markets.
Still, the Rangers have significant rotation depth, a deep lineup one through nine, and a completely overhauled bullpen, with six new relief pitchers acquired via trade or free agency this offseason.
Regardless of differing divisional and win total projections, every forecast likes the Rangers to make the postseason at least 52% of the time (-176 composite projection). I'm closer to -165 on their playoff odds, but would still place that bet up to -135.
Additionally, bet the Rangers' divisional odds to +150 (my projection is +135) and their AL Pennant Odds to +900. You could play their World Series odds (projected +1513, listed +2500), too, but I prefer an NL team for an outright.
Lastly, the AL West winner likely receives a Round 1 bye (unless the White Sox win 30 games and the AL Central winner wins 100+ games by default). Rangers to clinch a bye (+400) is correlated to their divisional chances; take +350 or higher.
Seattle Mariners
I lean Under on the Mariners, but I'm the low man in the market on their win total (projected 82.8 vs. a minimum of 84.6 at FanGraphs and the peak of 88 from Davenport).
If I only used my projections, I would consider betting Seattle to miss the playoffs (projected 30.8%, -110 listed). However, every public projection has Seattle making the postseason at least 56% of the time, and blending my projection to form the composite (-111) encourages me to pass on that bet.
Los Angeles Angels
If you only used the public forecasts, you could justify an over wager on the Angels this season (public average 75.2, peak of 78.3 from The BAT).
While I align much more closely with their listed total, I wouldn't rule out the Angels from making a wild-card run in 2025; my projection (12%, +764) shows a small edge relative to the market (listed +900), and the projection from The BAT (19.4%) is even more optimistic than that.
The Angels beefed up their roster — adding Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Yoan Moncada and Kenley Jansen this winter — and moved Mike Trout from center to right field to attempt to keep him healthier. They could play spoiler in one of the highest projected divisional races in recent memory.
Athletics
The A's offense was electric in the second half of last season and could benefit from warm temperatures and shorter fences in their new home park in Sacramento. They also made rare offseason additions, adding Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs and Jose Leclerc to their pitching staff.
After easily cashing the Over on their 2024 win total, I wanted to run it back with the A's in 2025, but I would have wanted Over 71 (projected 74) in order to place a wager, and the composite projection wouldn't bet anything above 70.
FanGraphs thinks they could be a sneaky wild-card team (projected 12.9%, +675 implied odds vs. +900 listed), but I would otherwise pass on this team.
AL West Futures Bets
- Rangers, Make the Playoffs (-110, 0.5u) at Bet365; bet to -135
- Rangers, Round 1 Bye (+400, 0.25u) at Bet365; bet to +350
- Rangers, Win the AL West (+250, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +150
- Rangers, Win the AL Pennant (+1200, 0.25u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +900
NL East Win Total Projections
Atlanta Braves
The Braves had an average public projection of 99.4 wins last season and still finished 89-73 despite playing nearly the entire year without Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. — both of whom are set to return in 2025.
While the market leans slightly toward the Over on their win total, the divisional odds offer much more value. The least optimistic projection (46.7%, +114 implied from PECOTA) would still recommend Atlanta as a value bet, and their consensus odds are well north of 60%; take +110 or better.
The Braves' divisional odds have dropped from +160 to +135 since I bet it two weeks ago, but you can still get Atlanta to secure a Round 1 bye at +195; bet that prop to +175.
Additionally, I show value in the Braves winning the National League and the World Series. However, I'm hesitant to fire too aggressively in February, hoping they can make it to October with their stars fully intact.
I projected the Braves' World Series odds at +862 (10.4%) implied, the fifth highest of the six weighted projections. The BAT and OOPSY are both north of 15% (roughly +550 implied between them), and the composite average at +735 was enough to justify the final rung on the Braves ladder; take that down to +900 (10% implied).
If you're willing to lay juice for six months, there's also substantial value on Atlanta to make the playoffs (low projection of -835 and composite -1381 vs. -270 listed).
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies check all three boxes for a win total bet, showing at least a 3.5-win gap between their listed total and 1) my projection (-5.6), 2) the public projection (-3.7), and 3) the composite projection (-4.6). Every projection has them finishing under their win total (peak of 91 from Davenport), although I'm the low man at 85.9.
The composite projection recommends Under 90.5, while my projection says to go as low as 89.5; 90 is a fair compromise.
While I think the Phillies are nearing the end of their potential contention window (average age of 32.7 among Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola), I'll pass on their odds to miss the playoffs, which I'd project closer to +200 if you eliminated my own number.
They have a relatively high floor compared to most teams, but I think the ceiling is closer to 90 wins; the Mets and Braves are likelier to add pieces in-season.
New York Mets
The Mets' odds clearly include the probability of future acquisitions — they're the likeliest team to add impact talent (potentially Dylan Cease or Luis Robert) between now and July.
At this point, my projection and the public projections (peak of 89 from Davenport, average 88) could only recommend a wager on their Under (at 91). However, if they go out and use prospects to trade for another impact player, the number is likely spot on.
Both my projection and the public projection (69% vs. 67%) agree that the Mets are a likelier playoff team than the Phillies despite the lower win total. However, my simulation showed a far bigger delta (19%) between their chances.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have a fun, young roster, but the math shows that they are still a year (and several pieces) away from wild-card contention.
I'm the highest in the market on their playoff chances (4.8%, +1983 implied) and still show value on their odds to miss (-1300) the postseason.
Still, I have the second-highest win-total projection for Washington (75 from Davenport) and fired at Over 69.5 a couple of weeks ago; you can take Over 70.5 where available, but I wouldn't go any higher.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are another example of a team where the composite projection recommends a pass at their consensus number on balance. I'm a touch low on Miami, while the public projections (high of 70.4 from FanGraphs) are more optimistic.
I view Miami as the worst team in the NL by one-tenth of a win. However, the public projection has the Rockies 4.5 wins behind the Marlins (65.6 vs. 61.1).
NL East Futures Bets
- Braves, Win the NL East (+160, 1u) at Caesars; bet to +110
- Braves, Round 1 Bye (+195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +175
- Braves, Win the World Series (+1000, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +900
- Phillies, Under 91.5 Wins (-102, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to 90
- Nationals, Over 69.5 Wins (-120, 0.5u) at ESPNBet; bet to 70.5
NL Central Win Total Projections
Chicago Cubs
The NL Central is a high-variance division, and while I lean to the under on the Cubs' win total — and think their divisional odds are far too short — my simulation still projected them as an extremely safe playoff team (77.3%, -341 implied). PECOTA has the Cubs at near 89% to make the postseason, and I would bet their playoff odds up to -175.
They also pop up as a potential World Series value bet — I'm at +1654 while PECOTA is at +1182 — but I wanted the Cubs to add another impact player (like Alex Bregman) before raising them to contender status.
Milwaukee Brewers
After cashing my divisional long-shot ticket on the Brewers last season, I'm fading their postseason chances in 2025.
I give Milwaukee just shy of a 39% chance of returning to the postseason (+159 implied), and the public projections (+184) are even less optimistic. Bet Milwaukee to miss the playoffs, up to -140.
They lost their best player and clubhouse leader in Willy Adames. Their bullpen could have some burnout after extreme usage last year, and I don't trust Christian Yelich to play to expectations after suffering another significant back injury.
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati is the team I'm highest on compared to public projections — a five-win gap between expectations. In fact, every public projection would lean Under on the Reds' win total, but I would bet Over 78.5 and lean into their divisional odds at +450 or better (projected +341).
Elly De La Cruz (3rd in NL WAR in 2024) is an MVP-caliber player and Hunter Greene has developed into one of the best (and most electric) pitchers in the NL. They're also getting Matt McLain back from injury and Noelvi Marte back from suspension, and retained Nick Martinez (perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball last season) and added two effective bullpen arms.
They have five effective major-league starting pitchers and three former first-round picks — Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns and Chase Petty — sitting in Triple-A.
There is upside — and prospect pedigree — all over the Reds' 40-man roster, including slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand on the bench. I expect new manager Terry Francona to get the most out of this roster.
Francona winning NL Manager of the Year (+700) could be a better bet than the Reds' divisional odds or their odds to make the playoffs.
St. Louis Cardinals
Public projections lean over on St. Louis, with a peak projection of 82 from Davenport, but aside from that outlier, the market seemingly has this team winning between 77-78 games.
Nolan Arenado remains on the trade block, and Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde are all expiring trade chips if this team starts slow.
There's definitely upside here — a Jordan Walker post-hype breakout combined with a healthy season for Lars Nootbaar and one or two of Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, or a rookie like Thomas Saggesse popping could give them an exciting offense — but the starting staff is old and thin.
Prospects Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews should inject some much-needed youth into the starting staff, and some clever free-agent acquisitions could make the Cardinals much more interesting in 2026. They feel stuck in limbo, between eras, currently.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Although I wish they did more in the free-agent market to capitalize on the Paul Skenes era, I still lean over on the Pirates' win total for 2025.
I expect top prospect Bubba Chandler to form a dynamic rotation alongside Skenes and Jared Jones, with Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney serving as above average back-end starters.
Oneil Cruz has 40+ home run potential, but this roster doesn't have much offensive upside.
I put the Bucs' divisional chances at +900, while OOPSY would go as high as +646.
If you like the Pirates, I won't talk you out of a divisional bet. However, I think the divisional long-shot bet is better than their odds of making the playoffs; OOPSY only gets them to +393 (listed as +380), and the consensus is closer to +670.
NL Central Futures Bets
- Cubs, Make the Playoffs (-130, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -175
- Reds, Win the NL Central (+500, 0.2u) at ESPNBet; bet to +450
- Reds, Over 78.5 Wins (-110, 0.75u) at DraftKings; bet to 78.5
- Brewers, Miss the Playoffs (-120, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -140
NL West Win Total Projections
Los Angeles Dodgers
Several projections recommend an under bet on the Dodgers' win total — the composite projection would justify anything at 104 or higher (96.4 from The BAT, 96.3 from OOPSY, and 96.9 from FanGraphs).
Still, I'm north of 100 wins on this team (PECOTA is at 103.4 and Davenport at 103) and believe that the 2025 Dodgers might ultimately be the best of the Ohtani era. They have a significantly deeper pitching staff than last season despite all of their offensive stars crossing the wrong side of 30 (and in Freddie Freeman's case, 35).
Betting the Dodgers to secure a Round 1 bye is likely a better bet at cheaper odds than laying their NL West price.
Still, even their most optimistic World Series projection (26%, +285 implied from ATC) falls short of the best available odds (+265).
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks and Padres have flip-flopped in the win total market.
San Diego opened as high as 88.5 and has come down, while Arizona has moved up from 85.5 after adding Corbin Burnes and Josh Naylor to strengthen a deep, well-rounded roster brimming with athleticism.
I view Arizona as the fourth-best team in the NL, and I project them as a very likely playoff team (my projection -209); public projections put them closer to -125, which is about where I'd set my price target. Using the composite projection (-159) as a guide, bet the Snakes to make the postseason up to -130.
Additionally, I'd find a way to bet the Diamondbacks to finish in exactly 2nd place in the NL West at +150 or better.
San Diego Padres
I bet the Padres Under 87.5 wins before they added Nick Pivetta in free agency. I was closer to 83 wins at the time (84.1 current), and if you remove the PECOTA projection (87) from the public sample, the remaining projections are only at 82.9.
The Friars' lineup and rotation are extremely top heavy, and the bullpen — which was potentially the best in baseball by season's end last year — lost several key pieces.
Additionally, the Padres are in the midst of a legal battle over team ownership, potentially leaving the club financially hamstrung; trade rumors have surrounded pending free agents Luis Arraez and Dylan Cease, as well as closer Robert Suarez.
Furthermore, president and general manager A.J. Preller, who is typically aggressive in the trade market, seems unlikely to deal potential stars in prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries, and he doesn't have many trade chips to fortify the current roster beyond those pieces.
I wouldn't bet on the Under at this point, but you could invest in the Padres to miss the playoffs. PECOTA is the only projection north of 50% (60.6%), and if you base a price target off the composite projection (-148 to miss), I'd be comfortable laying it up to -125.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are under new direction with former catcher Buster Posey as the GM, and adding Willy Adames could be a culture-altering move for a franchise desperate for a star.
I lean toward the Over on their win total, but I also show value on San Francisco missing the playoffs (my projection is -418, public -247, listed 225); I only rate them as the eighth-best team in the NL and the Central teams have a more manageable schedule.
The way I see things for 2025: the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and the NL Central champion comprise five of the six playoff spots, leaving the second-place team in the Central and either the Giants or Padres fighting for the third and final wild card.
Colorado Rockies
The public projection views the Rockies (61.1 wins) as the worst team in baseball, behind the White Sox (62.6) and Marlins (65.6). You can consider betting Colorado to finish with the most regular-season losses.
Their lowest win projection (54.8) is far below anything the White Sox were expected to do in 2024 (low projection of 65) and more than three wins clear of the Marlins' lowest projection (58 from Davenport) for 2025.
I'll pass on the loss leader wager considering that I project the White Sox (53.1) eight wins worse than any other team.
The Rockies' unique home environment seemingly leads to a minimum 45% home win rate, even at their worst (and closer to 55% when they field a competitive team). And if they're playing to a 36-45 record at Coors, the Rockies only need to win go 25-56 on the road (a 50-win pace) to clinch the Over.
NL West Futures Bets
- Diamondbacks, Make the Playoffs (-108, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -130
- NL West Exacta: 1st Dodgers – 2nd Diamondbacks (+200, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +150
- Padres, Miss the Playoffs (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -125
- Padres, Under 87.5 (+100, 1u) at ESPNBet; bet to 86
Zerillo's MLB Futures Card
MLB Win Totals
- Reds, Over 78.5 Wins (-110, 0.75u) at DraftKings; bet to 78.5
- Guardians, Under 83.5 Wins (-120, 0.5u) at ESPNBet; bet to 82
- Royals, Under 83.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to 83.5
- Yankees, Under 93.5 Wins (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet & (-110, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to 92
- Phillies, Under 91.5 Wins (-102, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to 90
- Padres, Under 87.5 (+100, 1u) at ESPNBet; bet to 86
- Blue Jays, Over 77.5 Wins (-110, 1u) at DraftKings
- Nationals, Over 69.5 Wins (-120, 0.5u) at ESPNBet; bet to 70.5
Divisional Futures
- Braves, Win the NL East (+160, 1u) at Caesars; bet to +110
- Orioles, Win the AL East (+325 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +275
- Reds, Win the NL Central (+500, 0.2u) at ESPNBet; bet to +450
- Tigers, Win the AL Central (+275, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +250
- NL West Exacta: 1st Dodgers – 2nd Diamondbacks (+200, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +150
- Rangers, Win the AL West (+250, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +150
Playoff Futures
- Braves, Round 1 Bye (+195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +175
- Diamondbacks, Make the Playoffs (-108, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -130
- Guardians, Miss the Playoffs (-130, 0.25u) at BetMGM & (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -175
- Cubs, Make the Playoffs (-130, 1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -175
- Royals, Miss the Playoffs (-135, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -135
- Brewers, Miss the Playoffs (-120, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -140
- Twins, Make the Playoffs (+120, 0.5u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to -110
- Yankees, Miss the Playoffs (+345, 0.1u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +300
- Padres, Miss the Playoffs (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -125
- Rays, Make the Playoffs (+230, 0.25u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +200
- Rangers, Make the Playoffs (-110, 0.5u) at bet365; bet to -135
- Rangers, Round 1 Bye (+400, 0.25u) at bet365; bet to +350
World Series and Pennant Futures
- Braves, Win the World Series (+1000, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +900
- Red Sox, Win the AL Pennant (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1200
- Tigers, Win the AL Pennant (+1300, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +1200
- Rays, Win the AL Pennant (+3000, 0.1u) at ESPNBet; bet to +2000
- Rangers, Win the AL Pennant (+1200, 0.25u) at BallyBet/BetRivers/Parx; bet to +900
