Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 30.
MLB Predictions Friday, Expert Picks, MLB Odds, and Preview for Today, August 30
BJ Cunningham's MLB Padres vs. Rays Best Bet: The Over/Under Prediction
Martin Perez vs. Taj Bradley
Martin Perez has been pretty bad this season and is also due for some negative regression. He has a 4.60 ERA, but his expected ERA is up at 5.66.
Since he joined the Padres, his expected metrics have stayed about the same, but his walk rate and HR/9 rate have gradually increased.
Perez has no velocity left, the Stuff+ on all of his pitches is below 85, and as you can see below, he's just trying to induce weak contact and groundballs. It's not going well.
The Rays hit left-handed pitching well, as they have a 111 wRC+ against the side this year, ranking ninth. Perez is also allowing a .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters. With the Rays able to platoon up to eight right-handed bats into their lineup, this is an excellent matchup for Tampa Bay.
Taj Bradley has been pitching pretty well this season putting up a 3.9 xERA, but over the second half of the season, he's not striking guys out like he once was. His K/9 rate was 11.2 before the All-Star break, but it's dropped to 7.85. His stuff or velocity hasn't dropped much, so it seems as if opposing hitters have a better read on him.
This is a tough matchup for him because the Padres have been among the hottest offenses in baseball over the second half of the season. Not only that, but they crush right-handed pitching, posting a 117 wRC+, the second-best mark among MLB lineups.
I have 8.2 runs projected for this baseball game.
Bets: Over 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
BJ Cunningham's Blue Jays vs. Twins Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Is The Best Bet
Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez
Kevin Gausman is struggling this season and trying to pitch differently than ever, which is evident in his recent pitching matchups.
He's currently sitting with a 4.75 xERA, mainly because he's not getting the swings and misses like he once did. His strikeout rate has taken a pretty big dip, going from 31.1% last season to 22.2% this season, with his fastball being the main problem.
He's lost almost a full mph of velocity on it, and his Stuff+ rating is also taking a pretty big dip. He allowed a .346 expected wOBA on the pitch last season, but that has now risen to .389. His split-finger was also at one time one of the most effective pitches in baseball, but now the whiff rate on that pitch is down over 10%.
His command hasn't fallen off. He still has a 105 Location+ and Pitching+ rating, which suggests he is simply learning how to pitch with less velocity and movement, and it's not going well. He's had the benefit of facing the Angels twice and the Reds once in his past three starts, but now he has to face one of the best lineups in baseball.
The Twins have a 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks fifth among MLB lineups. They also have a .373 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs, the league's third-best mark, trailing only the Yankees and Astros.
Pablo Lopez is a big-time positive regression candidate. His ERA is currently 4.26, but his expected ERA is down at 3.52. Lopez does not have electric stuff but relies on location over anything. He's got outstanding command of his arsenal, having a 105 Location+ rating and only a 2.01 BB/9 rate.
He's also really effective outside of the zone, ranking in the 92nd percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate, with a 30.7% swing percentage on pitches outside the zone. His sweeper, changeup, and curveball have kept hitters at bay all season long, with all three pitches allowing under a .300 expected wOBA.
The Twins also have a massive bullpen advantage over Toronto as they rank in the top 10 in xFIP, Stuff+, and Pitching+, while Toronto is in the bottom 10 of every metric.
I project the Twins ML at -174.
Bets: Twins ML (-150, BetMGM)
BJ Cunningham's Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Prediction: Back LA On Moneyline
Clayton Kershaw vs. Zac Gallen
Clayton Kershaw has only pitched 29 innings this season, but he's been pretty good in his limited MLB games (3.81 xERA).
While that is the highest xERA of his career, he's 36 years old and coming off an injury. His pitches have no velocity left, with his fastball averaging under 90 mph.
His slider and curveball have been effective, and both have a Stuff+ rating of over 100. He has excellent command over those two pitches, which has allowed him to be effective.
This will be a tough matchup for him, facing the Diamondbacks, a top-five offense against left-handed pitching. However, if he uses his curveball and slider heavily, he should be pretty effective.
Zac Gallen needs to avoid using his fastball heavily. It hasn't been very effective this season at generating swings and misses or keeping the ball off the opponent's barrel. It's allowing a .389 expected wOBA with a 13% whiff rate. However, his curveball and changeup have been solid. His curveball has a 50% outside-the-zone swing rate (96th percentile).
Gallen's command has been a bit out of whack since the All-Star break, with a BB/9 rate close to five. He also got roughed up by the Dodgers earlier this season, as they continue to be one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, with their entire offense healthy for the stretch run.
The Diamondbacks have used three of their top four relievers on back-to-back days, which is not an ideal scenario if Gallen isn't able to go deep into this game.
Bets: Dodgers ML (-115, Caesars)
BJ Cunningham's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 30
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
