Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 16.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds & Previews for Friday (8/16)
Tanner McGrath's MLB Royals vs Reds Predictions, Pick, Preview
Michael Lorenzen (RHP, KCR) vs Nick Martinez (RHP, CIN)
We all know about Kansas City’s offensive home-road splits.
Although the Royals will be hitting at Great American in potentially excellent hitting conditions (winds out toward left field, mid-80s temps, low pressure, +18% Run Factor), I’m willing to fade the bats away from Kaufmann against Nick Martinez and Co. in a Cincinnati bullpen game.
I love the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati is one of three teams with over five reliever fWAR on the year (Cleveland, Miami), as Red relievers rank top-five in almost every statistical metric (ERA, xFIP, strikeout rate, et cetera), including first in Pitching+ (103).
It starts with Fernando Cruz and his unhittable splitter, fueling a sub-three xFIP and a 37% strikeout rate. But Buck Farmer, Brent Suter and Alexis Diaz have rounded out the unit well. All in all, I want to bet the Reds in a bullpen game.
Martinez has been a stud in relief (1.86 ERA in 53 IP) but has struggled more in seven starts (5.02 ERA in 37 IP). But his expected run indicators indicate positive regression (3.31 FIP, 4.61 xFIP), and he’s coming off two dominant starts against Miami and Milwaukee, combining for 12 innings of shutout ball with 12 strikeouts, no walks and five hits allowed.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Martinez will hold his own and likely not see the order a third time. I’m more than happy with all of that.
Conversely, I have no faith in Mike Lorenzen, one of several Royal arms due for negative regression (3.79 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 5.03 xFIP). He shouldn’t sustain an 82% strand rate and a sub-.250 BABIP down the stretch, while sustaining a sub-four ERA with a 12% walk rate and a 1.30 WHIP is tough.
He’s seen some regression recently. He only managed to strand 75% of runners with a .333 BABIP over his past seven starts, allowing 16 earned in 24 innings (5.84 ERA) with 12 walks.
The bigger problem? The longball. Lorenzen allowed five homers during that stretch, bringing his HR/FB rate up to 13% and his HR/9 rate up to 1.4 – he’s recorded a 12% HR/FB and a 1.26 HR/9 since the beginning of last season (four teams). He induced a pathetic 32% ground-ball rate during those seven tough outings, and you don’t want to allow fly balls at GABP.
The Reds have an uninspiring lineup, but they’ve trended toward league average over the past month (101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching). I trust them to get to Lorenzen.
I also trust them to smack around Kansas City’s bottom-five bullpen, which has paired an 18% strikeout rate with a 90% zone-contact rate over the past two weeks. I despise this unit, and I believe the Reds can take advantage.
Bet: Reds ML (-130, bet365)
Tanner McGrath's MLB Mariners vs Pirates Predictions, Pick, Preview
Logan Gilbert (RHP, SEA) vs Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT)
Paul Skenes has gradually declined as the season has progressed. He continues to lose velocity on his fastball, checking in under 98 mph in his most recent start after beginning the year over 100.
Perhaps he’s getting tired, as he’s still only 22 years old. I imagine the Pirates will shelf him soon.
Regardless, after posting a 1.90 ERA through July 11, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA and 3.68 xFIP over his past four starts, registering two losses in that stretch. He most recently let the Dodgers take him for four earned on six hits across five innings.
Behind Skenes is a Pirate bullpen that’s been in free-fall the past month, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with a strikeout rate under 20% and a zone-contact rate approaching 90%. They’ve blown an MLB-high six games during the stretch, including a Skenes start against Arizona when Colin Holderman allowed three nine-inning runs in a 6-5 loss.
Logan Gilbert has been steady as ever for the M’s, but I don’t entirely trust the bullpen behind him, especially given Seattle’s two highest-leverage relievers have been deployed the past two days (Andres Munoz and Yimi Garcia). The M’s have posted a 5.05 reliever ERA over the past month.
The Pirates haven’t been able to hit right-handed hitting all season, but the Mariners are starting to look better in the lineup with Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner in the fold. Julio Rodriguez has three hits in two games since returning from the IL, so maybe he’ll start to turn it around. While rain is potentially in the forecast at PNC Park, we’re looking at decent home-run and extra-base conditions based on high humidity and low air pressure.
All in all, the total is just way too low. Our Action PRO model projects closer to 7.5 runs in this game.
Bet: Over 6.5 (-122, FanDuel)
McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, August 16
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