Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 2.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 2)
Cardinals vs. Cubs
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -104 |
Erick Fedde vs. Javier Assad
Erick Fedde comes to the Cardinals from the White Sox and is in the middle of his best season in the big leagues. He struggled early in his career with a career ERA of around five, and the expected metrics did not look much better. He spent all of last season in the KBO and was dominant there, putting up a 2.29 xFIP with a 10.43 K/9 rate and only a 1.75 BB/9 rate over 180 innings.
He's continued that production this season for the worst team in baseball, putting up a 3.79 xERA, which is why the Cardinals pursued him. The biggest change since returning to the majors is that he's stopped walking so many batters. His BB/9 rate before 2023 was close to four and now he's lowered that to 2.52.
Fedde has never been a guy with elite stuff, so for him to be successful, he has to be elite with his command — which he's done this season, posting a 105 Location+ rating. His cutter is now his main pitch, and he's throwing it up in the zone 57% of the time, which has allowed him to generate a high rate of fly balls that he couldn't do in 2022. He's also added a sweeper with a Stuff+ rating of 127, and with his excellent command over it, opposing hitters only have a .252 xwOBA against it.
The Cubs have struggled to hit the ball, especially against right-handed pitchers this season. They only have a 92 wRC+ against righties and are league-average against right-handed cutters and sweepers, so Fedde should have a good matchup.
Javier Assad is a pretty big negative regression candidate. He has a 3.23 ERA, but his xERA is up at 4.56.
Assad doesn't have any off-speed pitches that he throws at a high rate. Over 75% of the time, it's either a fastball, cutter or sinker, and all those pitches have been pretty average. His fastball and sinker have a Stuff+ rating below 80, and his cutter allows over a .400 xwOBA.
The Cardinals are much better against right-handed hitters than they are against lefties, and, in July, had a 113 wRC+, which was eighth in baseball.
I have the Cardinals projected at -135, so I like the value on them at -112.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-112) |
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -105o / -115u | +144 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 9 -105o / -115u | -172 |
Kevin Gausman vs. Marcus Stroman
Kevin Gausman is having his worst season since he moved to Toronto putting up a 4.85 xERA. His main problem is that his strikeout rate has taken a pretty big dip going from 31.1% last season to 23% this season.
The main reason for that is that his stuff has fallen off. Last season, he had a 105 Stuff+ rating, but now he's down to just 95. That said, his command has not fallen off. He still has a 105 Location+ and Pitching+ rating, which suggests that he is simply learning how to pitch with less velocity and movement.
Marcus Stroman is very overvalued as a starting pitcher. His ERA is 3.64, but his expected ERA is over a full run higher, at 4.75. Stroman has struggled because his sinker, which he throws almost 36% of the time, hasn't been that effective. It doesn't have much velocity, as it's only averaging 89.9 mph and has a Stuff+ rating of 94.
He faced Toronto on June 28th and got roughed up pretty badly. He could only last 4 1/3 innings giving up three runs, walking three batters, and had a 5.58 xFIP in that start. Toronto has been a league average offense against right handed pitching, but does have a .343 xwOBA against right handed sinkers.
The Yankees do not have a big bullpen advantage at all, so with these two starting pitchers being pretty even, I don't think the Yankees should be this big of a favorite. I have the Blue Jays projected at +132, so I like the value on them at +150.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+144) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Angels
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 -105o / -115u | -136 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 -105o / -115u | +116 |
Paul Blackburn vs. Tyler Anderson
Paul Blackburn makes his first start for the Mets after coming over from the A's at the trade deadline. Blackburn hasn't been that good this season, putting up a 4.69 xERA.
Blackburn needs to generate a lot of soft contact because his stuff isn't good. He has six different pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time, which can keep hitters guessing.
What he now has with the Mets is an above-average defense behind rather than the one in Oakland with the second-worst defensive rating in baseball.
Tyler Anderson is one of the most overvalued pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.96 ERA, but his xERA is at 4.17, and his xFIP is even higher at 4.75. Like most starting pitchers in 2024, he throws his fastball that only averages 89.2 mph up in the zone well over 50% of the time.
He has a high amount of induced vertical break, but when you are throwing it so slowly, it doesn't matter. Opposing hitters have a .362 xwOBA against his fastball, which is a big problem since he throws it 41% of the time.
Anderson does have some control issues, having a high walk rate and a Location+ rating below the league average. However, the Mets have the MLB's best 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, so they should be able to hammer Anderson.
The Mets have a top-five bullpen, while the Angels are well below league average and traded their closer Carlos Estévez to the Phillies. So, I like the value on the Mets -132.
Pick: Mets ML (-136) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
