Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 9.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Friday (August 9)
Tanner McGrath's Astros vs Red Sox MLB Best Bet: Dead Shot Over
Ronel Blanco (RHP, HOU) vs Tanner Houck (RHP, BOS)
This is a dead shot over.
Fenway is already a hitter’s paradise, ranking second in Park Factor over the past three seasons (107), but Friday’s weather will turn it into a ticking time bomb. We’re potentially looking at 15 mph winds blowing out toward the monster with mid-70s temps and high humidity. BallParkPal’s weather model projects a +21% Run Factor for this matchup based on a +37% Extra-Base Hit factor.
Much of this handicap surrounds Tanner Houck and the Boston pitching staff. After a heroic first half, many Red Sox arms are losing steam in the dog days. Over the past two weeks, the Red Sox have posted the seventh-highest reliever ERA (5.32) and the fourth-highest rotation ERA (6.21), with the whole staff combining for a negative fWAR during the stretch (-0.3, only better than the Pirates and White Sox).
Houck looks exhausted. He’s blown past his prior career-high innings mark (106) by almost 30 frames (134 entering Friday), and his command has dropped off a cliff. He’s walked 17 batters across his past 30 frames, seeing his strikeout minus walk rate dip to 3% and his ERA jump to over six during the stretch. He’s allowed a 43% hard-hit rate (season-long 33% mark) and five barrels in his past three starts.
Behind Houck is a bullpen that’s seen some wild melts since returning from the break.
The Astros are slumping in the lineup, but they’re still a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching on the season. Yordan Alvarez (145 wRC+) and Jose Altuve (123 wRC+) still bash that side. Excellent hitting weather and tired opposing pitchers feel like an excellent spot for a bounce-back.
Conversely, the Red Sox are arguably the hottest lineup in baseball, posting MLB’s highest wRC+ over the past month (138) while ranking eighth in stolen bases (31). The Red Sox are super dynamic and athletic, so they often overperform in the BABIP department (.324 on the year, first in MLB) while manufacturing runs on the basepaths (6.2 BsR, seventh).
Of greater importance, they’re superb against right-handed pitching (142 wRC+ over the past month) because they stack lefties in the lineup, including Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and the white-hot Masataka Yoshida (seven multi-hit games since July 21).
So, they should knock around Ronel Blanco, Houston’s unimpressive right-handed pitcher (95 Stuff+), who is vastly overperforming (2.98 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 4.43 FIP, 4.18 xFIP). Blanco has the lowest BABIP (.197) and the third-highest strand rate (83%) among qualified starting pitchers. Friday at Fenway is the perfect environment to force negative regression.
While I don’t mind Houston’s bullpen, the Astros have used Josh Hader three times in the past four days while also using Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu twice during that span. The unit is a tad extended.
So, altogether, I fully expect double-digit runs in this game.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-122, FanDuel)
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Tanner McGrath's Phillies vs Diamondbacks MLB Best Bet: White-Hot Snakes
Zack Wheeler (RHP) vs Ryne Nelson (RHP, ARI)
I don’t know what to make of Zack Wheeler these days. He’s unbelievable most nights but always has the potential to blow up. For example, he allowed seven runs in five innings to the Yankees and eight runs across four innings to the Orioles.
If there were a team to blow up against, it would be the Diamondbacks.
The Snakes are white-hot in the batter’s box, posting an MLB-best 157 wRC+ over the past fortnight behind a 90% zone-contact rate and 50% pull rate. Ketel Marte has been an unstoppable switch-hitting force (221 wRC+ over the past month), but don’t overlook Eugenio Suarez's (190), Corbin Carroll's (154) and Joc Pederson’s (210) improvements. Altogether, the quartet has combined for 5.5 fWAR since July 10, and the Snakes lead all teams in hitting fWAR during the stretch (8.0).
Conversely, although the Phillies are trending back up in the lineup, we know they’ve been slumping since the all-star break.
How Ryne Nelson will handle the Phillies is anyone’s guess. He’s underperformed this season (4.65 ERA, 4.12 xERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.35 xFIP) but is consistently vulnerable due to low strikeout stuff (97 Stuff+, 18% strikeout rate) and a mediocre batted-ball profile. Then again, he has pitched to a sub-three ERA over his past six outings, striking out 40 batters in 42 innings (24% strikeout rate).
But behind Nelson is a revamped bullpen that’s thriving with A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro in the fold.
They overpaid for Puk, but he’s been among the best left-handed relievers in baseball this season, posting a 0.45 ERA in 20 innings since the start of June – that includes three multi-inning appearances. He also takes much-needed stress off the underperforming Joe Mantiply, the only other southpaw reliever on staff. Similarly, Floro ranks 19th among relief pitchers in fWAR (1.1), pitching to a 2.11 ERA.
Those two have allowed two runs in eight combined innings of relief, and Arizona ranks second in reliever fWAR over the past fortnight (0.8).
Conversely, the Phillies bullpen is slumping (6.15 ERA and -0.7 fWAR over the past month). Rob Thompson had to deploy his four highest-leverage relievers for a combined 84 pitches in Thursday’s 6-4 series-opening victory, giving the Diamondbacks a small late-inning rest advantage.
Between Arizona’s lineup and bullpen, I believe there’s value in the Snakes as moderate home dogs.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+130, Caesars)
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McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, August 9
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