MLB Predictions Friday | 4 Expert Picks & Previews (6/28)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Friday, June 28.

Starting pitchers: Randy Vasquez (RHP; SD) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP; BOS)

The Sox have a monster pitching advantage at home on Friday night.

Vasquez’s advanced pitching model metrics are intriguing – 108 Stuff+ across his arsenal with five plus pitches and plus location. But while his six-offering arsenal played at the Triple-A level (25% over the past two seasons), it hasn’t translated to the bigs, where he’s posted a lackluster 15% strikeout rate behind a 19% whiff rate. He’s also been crushed on contact (10% barrel rate, .335 xBA).

Ultimately, I think Vasquez has nothing more than a decent curveball. His replacement-level profile backs that up (5.10 ERA, 6.81 xERA, -0.1 fWAR). So, even if Vasquez has better stuff numbers than Pivetta, his overall profile isn’t quite there.

And, unfortunately for San Diego, Pivetta has better stuff! Behind an elite four-seam fastball (132 Stuff+, trailing only Jared Jones among qualified starters) with crazy ride (19.8” iVB, 98th percentile) and a nasty slider (150 Stuff+) with a 20% swinging-strike rate, the Canadian righty leads all pitchers in Stuff+ across his arsenal (150, min. 50 innings).

Pivetta’s not a great pitch-to-contact guy, giving up plenty of barreled fly balls (10% barrel, 32% ground ball). But he still manages contact better than Vasquez, and he’s got a much higher ceiling.

Meanwhile, Boston boasts a top-five bullpen. Kenley Jansen hasn’t been great, but the emergence of Justin Slaten, Brennan Bernardino and Zack Kelly has added much-needed impactful depth. Even better, Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski are returning from injury. The Red Sox rank fourth in bullpen xFIP (3.72) and third in bullpen fWAR (3.9).

Although the Padres have a borderline top-10 bullpen, I’m skeptical of their overall profile. They lead the league in bullpen Stuff+ (110), but guys like Jeremiah Estrada and Yuki Matsui seem slightly erratic or Jekyll and Hyde. Ultimately, San Diego’s bullpen feels highly variable, and the unit is currently on a downswing, posting a 6.09 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the past two weeks.

The Padres are uber-productive against right-handed pitching, posting the second-highest wRC+ against the side over the past month (136). But Boston ain’t far behind (114, seventh) — and the Sox can stack six-to-seven lefties in their lineup on any given night, which could prove costly for Vasquez’s stark platoon splits (career .312 wOBA and 4.30 xFIP against righties, .429 and 5.78 against lefties).

Also, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. are on the shelf this weekend, while the Red Sox just got AL ROY candidate Wilyer Abreu back in the lineup.

While the Padres have a slight position player advantage in the batter’s box and on defense, it’s not nearly enough to compensate for the vast nine-inning pitching advantage the Red Sox have.

Also, cross-country interleague matchups are always tough to manage. It’s a 2,500-mile, six-hour flight with a three-hour time difference between SoCal and Back Bay.

Bet: Red Sox ML (-150, bet365) | Play to ML (-160)

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Starting pitchers: Marcus Stroman (RHP; NYY) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP; TOR)

Although the Yankees are 11-5 in his starts this year, I have zero faith in Stroman.

I don’t think his 3.15 ERA is sustainable with expected run indicators in the high 4.00s (4.40 xERA, 4.63 xFIP). The velocity on his heavily used sinker is down, causing a drastic decrease in its effectiveness and, more importantly, ground-ball rate – Sinker Stro is on pace for a career-low ground-ball rate (50%).

Of more importance, he can’t locate any of his secondary stuff, leading to a drastic decrease in his zone rate and a drastic increase in his walk rate – Stroman is on pace for a career-high walk rate (11%) and career-low Location+ mark (95).

He was hanging around because he kept stranding runners (81% on the year). But the regression monster has finally reared its ugly head, with Stroman posting a 4.91 ERA over his past four starts.

I expect more negative regression for Stroman, and I’m pleading for positive regression for the Jays.

Only six teams have a larger negative differential between their wOBA (.302) and expected wOBA (.316), and only three have a more significant negative difference between their average (.233) and expected average (.246). The Jays hold the second-lowest team BABIP (.271), leading only the ghastly White Sox (.266).

The best two examples are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

Only Shohei Ohtani (150) has more hard-hit balls this year than Vladdy (146), but the former is slugging .643 while the latter is slugging .435. Guerrero ranks above the 90th percentile in every batted-ball metric, but too many barrels have found gloves.

Ultimately, Guerrero is underperforming his expected wOBA (.390) by almost 40 points (.354), which is brutal for Toronto’s heart of the order.

Similarly, Bichette has been BABIP’d to death this year. He’s managed to sustain a career .340 BABIP because he’s such a talented bat-to-ball guy, but that mark has dipped to .270 this season despite a slight uptick in contact rates. The result has been a career-worst first half.

But those aren’t the only two Jays getting unlucky in the batter’s box.

Ultimately, general unluckiness is the biggest driver of Toronto’s disastrous first half.

But I still believe the tide can turn. The Jays have been elevating more balls lately, posting the seventh-lowest ground-ball rate over the past month (41%), which should help the BABIP issues. They’re also uber-disciplined, sustaining low strikeout rates with high walk and zone-contact rates.

In the other dugout, the Yankees obliterate right-handed pitching (123 wRC+, first) but are closer to mortal against southpaws (106 wRC+, 13th). While Aaron Judge and Juan Soto smash both sides, many depth and bench pieces are hitting much worse against lefties.

If you’re going to fade the Yankees, you must do it behind a southpaw.

And I’ve been somewhat impressed with Yusei Kikuchi. He’s on pace for career-high advanced pitching model metrics (111 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 106 Pitching+). He’s added a tick of velocity to his fastball, which now regularly sits at 96 mph with a dangerous vertical approach angle behind seven feet of extension.

The Jays are 5-11 in his starts this year – providing nice regression symmetry with Stroman in this handicap – and he’s posted a 4.00 ERA. But I think that’s underselling his form. I expect him to pitch much closer to his 3.36 xFIP for the remainder of the year.

I despise Toronto’s league-worst bullpen. But I also viscerally dislike New York’s horrendously overvalued relief corps, which ranks top 10 in bullpen ERA (3.59) but bottom 10 in bullpen xFIP (4.31), bullpen strikeout minus walk rate (12%) and bullpen Pitching+ (99). So, surprisingly, I don’t think I’d power rate these two units much differently. Even better, the Blue Jays have posted a 2.84 relief ERA over the past two weeks, while the Yankees have posted a 5.91.

New York’s bullpen regression is emblematic of their more general regression, as the Yankees have lost nine of their past 11. The Blue Jays have been no better, but I genuinely believe better days are ahead.

As a related aside, I hope the Jays don't sell at the deadline. It's best to realize the bad luck, keep the core together for another run next year, and add much-needed bullpen firepower.

From a matchup-specific perspective, the Jays have the pitching advantage, and Kikuchi's left-handedness neutralizes the Yankees’ offensive advantage. It’s also worth mentioning Toronto has MLB’s best defense, ranking first in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Bet: Blue Jays ML (+108, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+100)

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Starting pitchers: Ronel Blanco (RHP; HOU) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP; NYM)

Will the Mets ever lose again? They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games, storming back into the overcrowded NL wild-card race.

The answer is yes, of course. I expect them to lose on Friday with Quintana on the mound.

The Mets rotation isn’t bad, but the 35-year-old lefty is the weakest link. He’s a replacement-level arm (4.58 ERA, 5.13 xERA, 0.1 fWAR) who can’t miss bats (17% strikeout rate, 20% whiff rate) but also struggles when pitching to contact (44% hard-hit rate, 8% barrel rate).

It’s hard to succeed at this level if you rely heavily on a weak 90-mph fastball mix. Quintana throws his sinker and four-seam half the time. Both offerings have a Stuff+ mark below 75, ranking among the bottom 10 qualified fastballs.

Conversely, Ronel Blanco is overvalued (high strand rate, low BABIP) but still a more reliable arm than his counterpart (2.34 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 1.1 fWAR). He has league-average stuff but can force plenty of whiffs and weak contact with his secondary offerings, ranking above the 80th percentile of qualified pitchers in both statistics (30% whiff, 35% hard-hit rate).

I wish I could make a more compelling argument for the position player matchup. But I think the game should be defined as a red-hot Mets lineup battling on a consistent top-five Astros lineup that’s slumping.

I suspect the Mets are hitting over their heads during their hot streak. They’ve posted a 165 wRC+ over the past two weeks, which hardly seems sustainable. Conversely, the Astros have posted a 124 wRC+ against southpaws since the beginning of 2021.

Houston has a significant starting pitching advantage, and I believe the Mets are due for a few letdown performances in the batter’s box.

I also think the Astros are undervalued more generally. I talked about this phenomenon on Payoff Pitch a few weeks ago.

The lineup continues to produce, but the pitching has finally turned the corner. Hunter Brown is starting to live up to his pedigree, posting a 1.47 ERA across his past seven starts. Spencer Arrighetti tossed a dominant start against the Rockies, striking out 10 with zero walks and three hits across seven shutout frames. Relievers Josh Hader, Tayler Scott and Bryan Abreu have worked to a combined 2.62 ERA across 113 innings.

As a result, the Astros are good again. They’re 15-7 in June and 8-2 in their past 10 games.

I’m banking on another win this Friday.

Bet: Astros ML (-112, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-120)

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Starting pitchers: Triston McKenzie (RHP; CLE) vs. Alec Marsh (RHP; KC)

The wind and weather always play at Kaufmann Stadium, which sports MLB’s second-highest Park Factor in 2024 (106). Friday’s weather report calls for near-double-digit breezes out toward left-center field with hot and humid temperatures.

Put the two together, and you get a hitter’s paradise. BallParkPal’s model projects a +23% Run Factor in this one.

I don’t expect the pitchers to get in the way.

McKenzie has lost some velocity on his heavily used four-seam fastball, and the results have been disastrous. Opposing hitters are slugging .626 off the pitch, and the .652 expected slugging suggests things could get worse.

Given McKenzie has never been a ground-ball pitcher (career 33%), hard-hit lower-velocity fastballs will inevitably result in home runs. Cleveland’s righty is in a tough spot, sporting the highest HR/9 rate of any pitcher with at least 70 innings pitched (2.09). He’s allowed 17 in 73 innings, including 11 across his past six starts.

The Royals hit the ball hard and in the air, ranking fourth in average exit velocity (90 mph) and average launch angle (14.2 degrees). That’s a problem for McKenzie, who allowed three dingers in his last matchup with the division rival on May 4th.

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s pitching staff is amongst the league’s worst. The Royals were overperforming for a while, but regression has come in droves, as the staff has posted a 4.69 ERA over the past month (26th in MLB during the stretch).

Alec Marsh is one of those regression candidates who has seen regression. After posting a 2.43 ERA through his first seven starts, he’s posted a 6.28 ERA in the seven since. While he has decent stuff (101 Stuff+, 22% strikeout rate), he struggles too much on contact (10% barrel rate, 43% hard-hit rate, 37% ground-ball rate, 91 mph average exit velocity).

Meanwhile, the Royals boast a bottom-five bullpen, ranking last in reliever xFIP (4.67), last in reliever Stuff+ (95) and second-to-last in reliever strikeout minus walk rate (8%). The Royals rely heavily on six relievers, and I don’t trust any of them, from James McArthur to John Schreiber to Angel Zerpa.

The Royals also have a questionable defense, ranking 23rd in Defensive Runs Saved. All this negative run-prevention regression has come in droves during the month, as the team is just 9-14 in June, quickly losing ground in the rugged AL wild-card race.

I feel good about Cleveland crushing all the Royals' arms. No matter how they do it – improved Park Factors or not – the Guardians continue to produce, posting MLB’s fifth-best wRC+ over the past month (124).

Cleveland’s best-in-baseball bullpen and above-average defense worry me, but not enough to talk me off this over. Too many good hitters are hitting in great weather against too many poor pitchers, and BallParkPal’s model projects over 10.5 runs on Friday in Kansas City.

Bet: Over 9 (-125, Caesars) | Play to 10 (-110)

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McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, June 28

For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).

• Astros ML (-112, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-120)
• Blue Jays ML (+108, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+100)
• Guardians vs. Royals Over 9 (-125, Caesars) | Play to 10 (-110)
• Red Sox ML (-150, bet365) | Play to ML (-160)