MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez
Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 31.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -106 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -110 |
Jordan Montgomery vs. Luis Severino
Ah, yes, it's time to debate the age-old question: Is Jordan Montgomery good?
Well, the Yankees certainly didn't think so — trading him at the deadline two years back for Harrison Bader after determining that he wouldn't make their postseason roster. The Cardinals didn't really see it, either, dealing Montgomery to Texas for what actually turned out to be a great package of young players. Even after the season of his career, which saw him earn a World Series ring, every single general manager turned down the chance to lock him up on a lengthy contract which took his free agency all the way into the spring.
It's only been 40 1/3 innings, but it would appear that Jordan Montgomery has reverted back to being Jordan Montgomery, which is to say he's been a fine pitcher, but lacks top-line ability. He's long pitched to contact, but a near-seven point drop in his punchout rate this year has really magnified his middling Expected Batting Average, which has come along with a merely average number of ground balls and slightly elevated hard-hit rates.
Montgomery really hasn't been all that different this year, it's just that he's not striking guys out at even a league-average clip. He's even had the benefit of pitching in front of one of the best defenses in baseball, and even then hitters are a whopping .287 off him — something that's solidified with a .291 xBA.
The long box the Mets have to check here is "don't strike out," and it would appear they do — ranking 20th for the year and 22nd against lefties. They may not be walking frequently, but in swinging at 48.3% of pitches, they should put plenty of balls back into play against Montgomery.
If the runs come early for the home team, too, I don't know if there will be a way back for Arizona. It's beginning to show its true colors at the plate after being the model of mediocrity on offense a season ago, posting a 75 wRC+ over the last 14 days, which has been carried by a rise in strikeouts and more disappointing numbers in the power department.
The way to get to Severino over the years has been walking and registering barrels, two things the Diamondbacks are doing an extremely poor job of right now. With the righty turning in an excellent .223 xBA and 3.43 xERA through the first couple of months, hurt by only his 10.6% walk rate, this should be a favorable matchup and a great spot to play the Mets.
Bet: Mets Moneyline -110 (to -125)
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White Sox vs. Brewers
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -128o / 104u | +146 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -128o / 104u | -174 |
Eric Fedde vs. Tobias Myers
This is why we watch, right here.
We've got ourselves a pitching matchup between a 31-year-old who seems to have reinvented himself in the KBO last year and a forgotten 25-year-old rookie who was tossed around like a hot potato between six franchises over an eight-year career in the Minor Leagues before finally getting a shot to pitch this season. Both were rejected by big-league executives, yet they find themselves squaring off in a big-league game against all odds.
I'm willing to bet on them both. It's not just because both of these offenses look ragged at the moment — ranking in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks — rather there are reasons to believe in both.
Fedde, for all intents and purposes, is probably the guy who's easier to trust — something that's good considering he'll technically be pitching to the better of the two offenses. He enters this one with an excellent pitch-to-contact profile with few walks, an above-average ground-ball rate and a .229 Expected Batting Average, which comes along with a good sample of inducing soft contact.
The Brewers have fallen off at the dish — probably just regression to the mean given they've failed to put a good offensive team on the field for many years now, and the biggest reason why might be that after ranking second in the league against sinkers through the first month, with a +0.95 run value per 100 pitches, they've fallen to 19th at -0.49 in the month of May. That should help Fedde's sinker remain one of the most underrated pitches in the game.
On the other side of this one is Tobias Myers, who spent eight frustrating years in the Minors before finally getting a shot with Milwaukee after a ridiculous five starting pitchers went down with injuries. The stuff models have traditionally liked his fastball given its ride is well above average, and his arm slot creates a very tough look for opposing hitters. He hasn't yet found a wealth of success at this level, but he's also thrown just 22 1/3 innings and owns a .208 xBA on his four-seamer.
There are a lot of issues with the White Sox — we could spend all day here — but they rank dead last in the league in fastball run value on top of slashing .204/.277/.310 over the last 14 days, with a dreadful strikeout rate near 26%. There shouldn't be an overwhelming number of batted balls in play for Myers, but given this team owns just an .084 Isolated Power in the last two weeks and hasn't had a prayer against fastballs, his stuff should play up here.
Bet: Under 8 (-120 or better)
Twins vs. Astros
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8 -120o / -102u | -106 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8 -120o / -102u | -110 |
Pablo Lopez vs. Ronel Blanco
It's very easy to write off Pablo Lopez's struggles as a fluke — or a bout of bad luck — given he's been one of the sturdiest arms in the game for the better part of five years now.
"But he's got a 3.26 xERA, Kenny, he's fine!" I hear someone exclaim through the virtual screen dividing us.
Well, I think Lopez may figure this thing out in time, if his long history of competence is any indication, but there are plenty of ways in which he's earned his gaudy 5.72 ERA in May.
The first thing that jumps out is Lopez's elevated .244 Expected Batting Average in May, up significantly from a mark of .219 in April and well off the .216 number he posted a season ago. It's sat at .297, .316 and .250 in his last three starts, and this spike directly correlates with a big dip in ground balls over the last four starts.
As you can see from his latest outing against the Rangers, he did recover a bit in the expected metrics despite his awful line, and that had something to do with a long-awaited return to his normal ground-ball numbers. I'd point out, however, that the Rangers have been beating the ball into the dirt at the second-highest clip this month.
The Astros have not been a ground-ball team this season, and worst of all they've owned the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 17.9%. This is going to spell trouble for Lopez, who has been lacking his ground-ball touch all season and pitching out of trouble with another solid season in the strikeout department.
With the batted ball profile and a 39.5% hard-hit rate, which would be the worst of his career to this point, I do think there are some actual issues with the way Lopez is working right now.
Houston is beginning to hit, sitting eighth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and with Ronel Blanco on the bump against a slumping Twins offense, the Astros should be much bigger favorites at home.
Bet: Astros Moneyline -110 (to -130)
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