Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my MLB predictions, expert picks and best bets for Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 on Friday, October 11.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks, Previews for Friday, Oct. 11
Sean Zerillo's MLB Padres vs Dodgers Best Bets
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +120 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -142 |
RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
The Padres used Dylan Cease on short rest in Game 4, leaving Yu Darvish (3.64 xERA, 16.9% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA) as their bulk pitcher for Game 5.
Darvish was calm in a tumultuous Game 2 win at Dodger Stadium (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K) and will face his former club for the fifth time this season in a winner-take-all game on Friday night. He's held current Dodgers hitters to a career .594 OPS and 16.3% K-BB% in nearly 300 career plate appearances.
Freddie Freeman — who remains questionable for Game 5 after sitting in Game 4 — has done the most damage against him (10-for-40, 4 BB, 3 2B, 3 HR, .868 OPS).
Darvish has otherwise held Mookie Betts (8-for-43, .620 OPS), Max Muncy (10-for-41, .677) and Will Smith (6-for-31, .676) in check across a decent sample. He's also limited Teoscar Hernandez (2-for-12, 2 K) and Shohei Ohtani (1-for-8, 3 K) in their minimal encounters.
The Dodgers will likely piggyback Game 1 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.44 xERA, 22.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA) with Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty (3.51 xERA, 24% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) after using eight pitchers in Game 4. Both will be on complete rest for Game 5.
Yamamoto has struggled early in his three starts against the Padres this season, permitting eight first-inning runs and 13 total across nine innings.
Flaherty hasn't been much better in his two outings against the Padres — a start in late September (5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 5 K) and his loss in Game 2 (5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 K).
I think Flaherty's arm is in worse shape at this point of the season than Yamamoto's; the latter has contract security and missed several months with an IL stint, but Flaherty is a pending free agent who gutted his way to the finish line.
Flaherty was among the best pitchers in MLB through August (2.78 xFIP and 26.3% K-BB%), but September was his worst month this season (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%). Flaherty's fastball and slider velocity (averaged 93.5 mph and 84.8 mph through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season, which represents his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017.
His velocity returned in Game 2 — Flaherty averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball and 84.7 mph on his slider.
Perhaps the 10 days of rest between his final regular season start and Game 2 gave Flaherty's arm additional time to recover. Still, there's a possibility that he's a reduced version of the pitcher we saw for most of this year.
The Dodgers used their bullpen aggressively in that Game 4 win. Alex Vesia threw 3o pitches, and Anthony Banda, Ryan Brasier, Daniel Hudson and Michael Kopech appeared for the third time in four games.
Jeremiah Estrada (29 pitches in Game 4 and worked in consecutive games) is the least-rested arm in the Padres bullpen. Estrada and Tanner Scott are the only Padres relievers to pitch thrice in this series. Still, Scott didn't pitch Wednesday, and San Diego's high-leverage arms have thrown fewer pitches in the past five days.
As a result, the Padres could follow the Dodgers' Game 4 pitching plan — use a different arm nearly every inning — while the Dodgers will likely try to allocate the first five to six innings between Yamamoto and Flaherty.
My Game 5 projection partially depends upon the status of Freddie Freeman and, to a lesser extent, Miguel Rojas.
Assuming both players are out, I'd project the Dodgers as -117 favorites. However, if both played, I'd upgrade Los Angeles to -131. At current odds, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I'd want closer to +127 (44.1% implied) to bet on the Padres (projected 46.1%).
I set the total at 8.01 runs and would bet Over 7.5 to -112.
However, I'd also target a live Under 9 or 9.5 if there's early scoring (or Under 11 or 11.5 if there's a lot of early scoring). These bullpens, shuttling fresh arms in constantly, should help stabilize the game.
Concerning pitcher props, I'd bet Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140), 4.5 Hits (-119) and 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) for Darvish, whose usage may be limited to two turns through the opposing lineup.
Despite Darvish's success against Ohtani in a limited sample, Mike Schildt would probably prefer that a lefty face Ohtani whenever possible (.867 OPS, 141 wRC+ vs. lefties; 1.128 OPS, 202 wrC+ vs. righties this season).
Lastly, I'd expect the Dodgers to refuse to let Fernando Tatis Jr. beat them in Game 5. The Braves walked Tatis in each game after he homered against them in the first inning of Game 1 in the Wild Card round, yet the Dodgers keep pitching to him after seven hits (three doubles, three homers) in 17 plate appearances in the NLDS.
Tatis Over 0.5 Walks (+215 at DraftKings) is a fun sprinkle. Yamamoto struggles with first-inning command, and Flaherty's walk rate increased drastically in September.
Zerillo's MLB Padres vs Dodgers Predictions & Picks for Friday, October 11
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- Fernando Tatis Jr Over 0.5 Walks (+215, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125, 0.1u) at BallyBet
- Yu Darvish Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-119, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Yu Darvish Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140, 0.1u) at DraftKings
