After an incredible win for the Cleveland Guardians over the New York Yankees in ALCS Game 3 and a decisive Los Angeles Dodgers victory over the New York Mets in NLCS Game 4, we turn immediately to Friday's MLB playoff games.
First off is Dodgers vs. Mets, where Los Angeles has a 3-1 series lead. The Dodgers are -135 favorites to win on Friday and move on to the World Series, while the Mets are +114 underdogs to force a Game 6. The over/under is 7.5 runs.
In the ALCS, the Yankees have a 2-1 series lead after Cleveland's stunning 7-5 win on Thursday. The Yankees are -120 favorites to win Game 4, with the Guardians slight +100 underdogs on the moneyline. The over/under in this one is also 7.5 runs.
Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for the NLCS and ALCS games on Friday, October 18.
MLB Predictions
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 5
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 7.5 104o / -128u | -138 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7.5 104o / -128u | +118 |
RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) vs LHP David Peterson (NYM)
The Over is 4-0 (compared to the closing total; 3-0-1 against the opening number) in each of the first four games of the NLCS.
First pitch and game time temperatures (66 degrees, dropping to 59 by the late innings) will be 10 degrees warmer for Friday in New York than for Games 3 and 4 at Citi Field.
However, windy conditions (7 mph in from center field) and extreme pitcher-friendly plate umpire Bill Miller (career 53.6% to the Under, +$1,940, +3% ROI) lowered my projected total to 6.58 runs for Game 5. Bet the Under to 7 (-110).
This game independently triggered our Action Labs Pro System for wind direction, which has a lifetime record of 52-38-6 (57.8% win rate, +$946 for a consistent $100 bettor, +9.8% ROI) at Citi Field:
Jack Flaherty (3.51 xERA, 24% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) will retake the bump for the Dodgers after a dominant Game 1 effort (7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 28% CSW%).
Subtle velocity changes can have drastic effects on Flaherty's effectiveness.
Flaherty's fastball and slider velocity (averaged 93.5 mph and 84.8 mph through August) dipped to 91.8 mph and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season, which represented his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017. And September was his worst month this year (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%).
The velocity returned in NLDS Game 2 against San Diego, when he averaged 93.3 mph on his fastball and 84.7 mph on his slider — and he maintained those levels in Game 1 against the Mets (92.6 mph on his fastball and 85.2 mph on his slider).
Flaherty's medicals raised red flags at the trade deadline (apparently scaring off the Yankees). Still, he received 10 days of rest between his final regular-season start and the NLDS, with another six days off before Game 1 of the NLCS. Friday will be his first start on four days of rest since late September — we'll see whether the velocity holds.
Regardless, I don't necessarily trust Flaherty to pitch as deep into Game 5 as he did in Game 1. The Dodgers' high-leverage relievers remain relatively well-rested after three blowout wins, and they'd have an off-day on Saturday before a potential bullpen day in Game 6.
Still, if manager Dave Roberts decides to press on the gas with a lead, they can close out the series on Friday and gain a potential rest advantage for the World Series, particularly crucial with their limited starting staff.
Here's how Flaherty's Game 1 closing consensus prop lines compare to his Game 5 openers:
- Game 1: Over 15.5 Outs (-120/-115), Over 5.5 K's (-120/-110), Over 4.5 Hits (+100/-145), Over 1.5 Walks (-140/+100), Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-175/+125)
- Game 5: Over 15.5 Outs (-125/-110) / Over 5.5 K's (-150/+116) / Over 4.5 Hits (+120/-170), Over 1.5 Walks (-195/+135) / Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-175)
I bet Flaherty over 1.5 walks (-150) in Game 1, but would pass after the price adjustment.
David Peterson (4.58 xERA, 10.8% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.54 botERA) will start Game 5 for the Mets after pitching once through the opposing order (40 pitches) behind an ailing Kodai Senga (velocity down from 92.3 on the season to 90.6 mph) in Game 1.
Freddie Freeman didn't play in Game 4, but the Mets will hope to use Peterson (2.53 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.66 vs. righties) to neutralize Shohei Ohtani (202 wRC+ vs. righties, 141 vs. lefties) and Max Muncy (145 vs. righties, 107 vs. lefties), who tied Reggie Jackson's postseason on-base streak (12 consecutive plate appearances) on Thursday.
I'd anticipate that the Mets want Peterson to take two turns through the opposing order on Friday — plus an additional appearance against Ohtani, Freeman (if he plays) and Muncy before exiting — equaling about 23 batters.
Peterson is the only lefty the Mets have available on Friday. They're incentivized to let him face the Dodgers' lefties a third time if they can afford to.
As a result, I think Petersons's props are potentially too low — I'd consider Peterson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110), Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-105), Over 1.5 Walks (-120) and Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-105); those seem to be set for him facing closer to 18 batters, rather than facing the Dodgers' lefties a third time.
And unless they plan to use Senga, you can otherwise expect their high-leverage arms (Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek, and Edwin Diaz, potentially with Phil Maton for an inning) at some point behind Peterson, who they hope can get through half of this contest with a lead.
I project the Mets as +102 underdogs for Game 5 and would bet their moneyline to +106.
Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
RHP Luis Gil (NYY) vs RHP Gavin Williams (CLE)
Luis Gil (3.83 xERA, 14.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA) hasn't thrown in an MLB game since September 28.
He is making his first appearance in nearly three weeks, in chilly temperatures, with known command issues (12.1% walk rate — highest among qualified starters) against a Guardians lineup that doesn't strike out (20.2%, fifth best in MLB).
The Yankees need length from Gil after using six relievers on Thursday — including Luke Weaver, Tim Hill and Clay Holmes for the third consecutive game in this series. Weaver worked his second multi-inning stint, while Tommy Kanhle also recorded five outs after an additional multi-inning stint in Game 3, and Ian Hamilton left with a leg injury.
The Yankees bullpen has Marcus Stroman (4.87 xERA, 7.9% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+, 5.05 botERA) as a long relief option behind Gil, but their high-leverage arms are a bit more overworked for Game 4 than the Guardians' relievers. Perhaps an injury replacement for Hamilton brings another fresh arm into their bullpen.
Cleveland used seven relievers behind Matthew Boyd in Game 3, but only Pedro Avila has worked all three games in this series, and none of their high-leverage arms have been used in multi-inning stints.
With a 2-1 series deficit, I'd expect Stephen Vogt to continue to deploy his bullpen aggressively behind Game 4 starter Gavin Williams (4.14 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+ 3.75 botERA), who hasn't pitched since Sept. 22. Vogt can use southpaw Joey Cantillo (3.88 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+ 4.83 botERA) as a long reliever if needed.
Williams faced the Yankees once this season on Aug. 22 (4 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 5 K). He's shown fairly typical splits in his young MLB career (4.01 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB% vs. righties, and 4.64, 10.9% against lefties) and suppressed the long ball to date (0.85 HR/9).
Williams pitches behind a big four-seamer (96.6 mph, 51.5% usage) and mixes in a curveball (19.8%), slider (11.3%), cutter (12%) and changeup (5.4%).
However, he should try to pitch backward and rely on his secondary stuff more consistently against a Yankees offense that led MLB with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Bombers ranked 3rd against four-seamers (Pitch Value / 100) and fourth against sliders, compared to 12th against curveballs, 14th against cutters and 19th against changeups on a per-pitch basis.
Gil also had one rough start in August against his Game 4 opponent (3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 6 BB, 3 K). Cleveland struggled against sliders this season (22nd) but ranked 12th against four-seam fastballs and 15th against changeups.
Like Williams, the right-handed Gil has performed better against righties (3.99 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB%) than lefties (4.93, 10.0%), even though he places the Guardians in their lesser offensive split.
Cleveland's offense ranked 20th against righties on the season (95 wRC+) and 27th in the second half (88) compared to eighth (114) and 11th (108) against lefties.
Both pitchers are returning from a relatively extended absence for a high-pressure spot against opponents who have shown patience against them in the past. They are also being asked to go a bit deeper than either team would probably want from their No. 4 starting pitchers.
I'd lean toward most pitcher prop Overs for these starters, particularly 2.5 walks (+160) for Gil, which might be my initial preferred play.
Plate umpire Chris Segal, with hitter-friendly tendencies and a career 141-120-10 record to the Over (54% win rate, $1,153 for a consistent $100 bettor, +4.3% ROI), should also help boost the run-scoring environment.
A pair of right-handed starters provide additional opportunities to hit homers into the Progressive Field wind tunnel.
As a reminder, from 2021-2023, Progressive Field had a 94 run-scoring factor (the league average is 100), a 96 run-scoring factor for left-handed hitters and a 93 factor for left-handed home runs, compared to marks of 104, 106 and 117 in 2024, after upper-deck renovations in right field.
Perhaps Aaron Judge got a little extra boost on his eighth-inning, game-tying opposite-field homer in Game 3 (.780 expected batting average, 109.9 exit velocity, 18-degree launch angle), which only would have gone cleared the fence in nine of 30 MLB ballparks (including Yankee Stadium).
I projected 7.53 runs in Game 4 and didn't see value on either end of the total.
I project the Guardians as -103 favorites for Game 4 and would bet their moneyline to +101.
Zerillo's MLB Playoff Picks for Friday, October 18
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- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+106, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to +101)
- David Peterson, Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (+112, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Jack Flaherty, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Los Angeles Dodgers / New York Mets, Under 7.5 (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel & Under 7.5 (-110, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to 7, -110)
- New York Mets Moneyline (+125, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +106)
World Series Futures and Championship Series Prices
- ALCS Projections:
- NLCS Projections:
- World Series Projections:
- Dodgers: 47.5% (+110)
- Yankees: 38.4% (+161)
- Guardians: 10.5% (+850)
- Mets: 3.6% (+2693)
The Guardians remain the value team in the AL Pennant and World Series markets (projected +308 and +850). I'd want +325 (available at ESPNBet) or higher to bet their AL Pennant or ALCS Series odds and +950 (+1100 at FanDuel) to bet their World Series odds before Game 4.
I'd need +1100 (8.3% implied) or better to play the Mets to win each of the final three games of the NLCS.
