Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite MLB predictions and picks for Friday, September 13.
MLB Predictions, Picks & Previews for Friday, September 13
Kenny Ducey's Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under Prediction
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +120 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -142 |
RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs LHP DJ Herz (WAS)
Happy DJ Herz day to all who celebrate. I'll be watching with great anticipation on Friday evening as the tantalizing young left-hander takes the ball in what should be another friendly matchup against the Miami Marlins, promising to do his part in delivering a low-scoring game.
I wax poetic weekly about Herz in this column, and it's hard to find a reason as to why I shouldn't. The southpaw has come out of seemingly nowhere this season to post a tidy 3.29 Expected ERA (xERA) and a blistering 28.9% strikeout rate, leaning on a unique crossfire delivery which has left hitters guessing.
The Marlins have been one of the guiltiest strikeout sides in baseball. In the second half, they have punched out in 24% of plate appearances. In that span, they rank 22nd with a .229 xBA against left-handers and remain just outside the top 10 in whiff rate to southpaws this season. This may be a hot offense right now, but that's mainly come against right-handed pitching on account of their seventh-ranked .255 xBA against righties in the second half.
The common theme here with both pitchers will be their ability to limit walks. Herz has had some slight hiccups in that area whereas Cabrera's been arguably sported the worst control in the big leagues over his four years. But we're looking at two sides here that have walked at an 8% or lower clip since the All-Star break and have both remained there in the last two weeks.
With Miami dealing with some terrifying strikeout issues, the Nationals sporting just a .141 Isolated Power (ISO) in the last 14 days and neither side drawing many walks, two pitchers who have been brilliant on contact and have flashed supreme strikeout upside should deliver us the first of two unders we're taking a look at on Friday.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-115; BetMGM) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
Ducey's Red Sox vs Yankees Moneyline Pick
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
RHP Tanner Houck (BOS) vs RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
I realize that Thursday's Red Sox-Yankees game didn't feature many runs, but it did feature a left-handed pitcher in Nestor Cortes. Neither one of these teams has been able to figure out southpaws this season, and while Cooper Criswell did pitch effectively, the Yankees managed to take him deep once and reached base seven times over his 5 1/3 innings.
This is a Yankees team that has been through a lot over the last two months, but through it all they remained incredibly formidable at the plate judging by the numbers. Now, they'll draw Tanner Houck, who should play right into their hands as a ground-ball pitcher.
New York is ranked second in the league against ground-ballers in OPS, looking up to just the Red Sox in that category, and have hit a blistering .275 against these types. It should come as no surprise that Houck has struggled both times he's faced the Yankees, yielding seven runs (four earned) over 9 1/3 innings with a stunning eight walks allowed. One of the most patient teams in the league, they drew three walks against Criswell on Thursday and should have plenty of success reaching base against Houck.
I noted above that the Red Sox have excelled against ground-ball pitchers, but sadly for them Clarke Schmidt doesn't fit the bill. He's continued to decrease his ground-ball rate throughout his career, all the way to 40.5% this season, and the fly balls are beginning to come more frequently. This presents a less-than-favorable matchup for Boston, as does the fact that he's quickly developed into a formidable strikeout pitcher by sitting down 26.1% of the batters he's faced this season.
Boston's done a lot of damage when it's put the ball in play, but its Achilles heel has been strikeouts. Schmidt should find plenty of third strikes in this one and pitch well to contact given the poor spot for the Red Sox offense.
Bets: Yankees ML (-145; Caesars Sportsbook) | Play to -152
Ducey's Dodgers vs Braves Over/Under Best Bet
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
RHP Landon Knack (LAD) vs RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)
This is one of those games where you take advantage of market skepticism with two pitchers you believe in your heart to be excellent.
Landon Knack may be the National League's Cooper Criswell at this point, pitching effectively to a 3.00 ERA and 3.46 xERA — ranked in the top quarter of all pitchers — in 54 innings as a 27-year-old rookie. Despite the solid showing, the Dodgers have seemed inclined to give just about anyone else but Knack consistent looks in the rotation, but with some injuries they've been left with no choice but to run Knack back out there against the Braves.
This should work in their favor, as Knack has thrown a bevy of strikes and pitched to an extreme number of fly balls. Atlanta's back in 14th against fly-ball pitchers with a .718 OPS, and in the past two weeks it's ranked just 27th in baseball with a 75 wRC+.
Strikeouts have been a massive issue, and Knack did seem to find something in his last outing when he was promoted once again from Triple-A and racked up eight punchouts over six frames against a contact-oriented Guardians team. The Braves also own a putrid .126 ISO over the last two weeks, affirming by belief that the right-hander should find plenty of ways to record outs whether it be in the air or on strikes.
Schwellenbach, on the other hand, is coming off his worst outing of the year against the Blue Jays but has otherwise been dominant since his first two big-league starts. He did allow two home runs in that one, but even still he's allowed just 12 homers in 97 2/3 innings and remains incredibly productive in the strikeout and walk categories next to a 3.41 xERA.
The Dodgers have been hitting the ball much better of late, but I'm still not 100% sold on them being back to normal with strikeouts persisting and a high .324 BABIP signaling some regression coming in their contact hitting quite soon.
I'll admit, in a pick 'em, I'm very inclined to take the Dodgers, but I think Schwellenbach's done more than enough to earn our trust after an isolated incident against Toronto. With Atlanta's bullpen cooking and L.A.'s looking good aside from Evan Phillips, we should be in for a playoff-like game where runs are at a premium.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-105; BetMGM) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
Ducey's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, September 13
- Marlins-Nationals Under 8.5 (-115 to -110; BetMGM)
- Yankees Moneyline (-145 to -152; Caesars)
- Braves-Dodgers Under 8.5 (-105; BetMGM) | Bet to Under 8 (-110)
